Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SD at KC?

The model favors KC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 18, 2026

FINAL+5KC

48-50

40-59

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri

23,347 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

KC spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 10.5

open O/U 10.5

KC no-vig %

48.3%

open 49.6% · -1.3

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.0%

ensemble · KC favored

Elo Static
52.4%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.9%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.9%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.24 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.11

CLV pp

Open price

-108

Close price

-108

Open no-vig

49.6%

Close no-vig

49.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SD at KC?: The model favors KC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+11.3pp

best edge · SD · DraftKings

★ best

+162DraftKings

edge +11.3pp · implied 35.9%

no live price

Book	SD	KC	Best edge
DraftKings	+162★	-215	+11.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

KC vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 109 high confidence

Strikeouts

Noah CameronKC
5.1± 3.3high
Michael WachaKC
4.7± 2.0high
Michael KingSD
4.6± 1.6high

Hits

Ty FranceSD
1.4± 0.8high
Jackson MerrillSD
1.2± 1.2high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.0± 1.5high

Total bases

Jackson MerrillSD
1.9± 2.1high
Ty FranceSD
1.9± 1.1high
Salvador PerezKC
1.8± 1.6high

RBIs

Luke MaileKC
1.0± 1.6low
Jackson MerrillSD
0.7± 0.8high
Ty FranceSD
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Noah CameronKC
3.0± 2.7high
Walker BuehlerSD
3.0± 2.8high
Seth LugoKC
2.9± 2.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

.696

OPS

.719

▶

.711

.312

OBP

.318

.313

4.21

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.13

4.14

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.87

1.32

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.43

8.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

SD 1 · KC 6 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked KC +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
KC	2	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.282	2	1	1	1	1	2	0
J. MerrillCF	.214	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
X. BogaertsSS	.222	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
M. Machado3B	.199	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
G. Sheets1B	.215	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. France1B	.274	3	0	2	0	0	1	0
J. Cronenworth2B	.199	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
M. AndujarDH	.264	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
F. FerminC	.156	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		30	1	6	1	1	5	5

Player

.282

.214

.222

.199

.215

.274

.199

.264

.156

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. CanningSP	3.2	5	4	4	2	4	65
M. WaldronRP	2.1	2	2	2	0	2	27
R. MarinaccioRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	13
J. BritoRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	11
Team	8.0	9	6	6	2	8	116

Player

3.2

2.1

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

116

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. JensenC	.246	3	2	2	0	0	1	1
B. Witt Jr.SS	.280	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. CaglianoneRF	.260	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
L. ThomasCF	.243	4	1	2	2	1	0	0
V. Pasquantino1B	.223	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
S. PerezDH	.211	4	1	1	2	1	0	2
M. Massey2B	.268	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
N. Loftin3B	.240	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. CollinsLF	.240	3	0	1	1	0	0	2
Team		32	6	9	6	2	2	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. DobnakSP	4.1	4	1	1	4	3	96
S. CruzRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. Lynch IVRP	2.0	2	0	0	0	0	26
B. WayRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	16
E. MorganRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	10
Team	9.0	6	1	1	5	5	150

Team

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

KC vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

KC vs SD.

3 sub-models, blended.