San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 3, 2026

FINAL+1LAD

43-44

LAD

58-31

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California

49,578 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

LAD no-vig %

68.0%

open 67.5% · +0.5

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

68.1%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
67.8%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
69.7%
P(LAD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
68.5%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.78 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+12.5pp

best edge · LAD · DraftKings

no live price

LAD

★ best

-140DraftKings

edge +12.5pp · implied 54.7%

Book	SD	LAD	Best edge
DraftKings	+107	-140★	+12.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

LAD vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 102 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tarik SkubalLAD
7.6± 2.7medium
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.2± 2.8medium
Justin WrobleskiLAD
5.6± 3.5medium

Hits

Freddie FreemanLAD
1.7± 0.9high
Enrique HernandezLAD
1.3± 1.3low
Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

Enrique HernandezLAD
2.5± 3.6low
Freddie FreemanLAD
2.2± 1.4high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.2± 2.5high

RBIs

Ty FranceSD
0.8± 1.3high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
0.7± 1.1high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
2.8± 2.4medium
Walker BuehlerSD
2.8± 2.9high
Emmet SheehanLAD
2.6± 2.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

LAD

.696

OPS

.720

▶

.774

.312

OBP

.318

▶

.341

4.21

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.12

4.14

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.60

1.33

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.14

8.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

SD 3 · LAD 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +18pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	3
LAD	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.277	4	1	0	0	0	1	4
J. Cronenworth2B	.177	3	0	2	0	0	1	1
M. Machado3B	.190	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
G. Sheets1B	.235	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
T. France1B	.265	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. MerrillCF	.215	4	2	2	1	1	0	2
X. BogaertsSS	.233	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
S. Song2B	.238	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. DuranC	.137	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
S. TaylorLF	.329	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. AndujarDH	.264	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		34	3	8	3	1	3	14

Player

.277

.177

.190

.235

.265

.215

.233

.238

.137

.329

.264

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. KingSP	6.0	3	2	2	2	5	75
A. MorejonRP	1.0	2	2	1	2	0	24
B. RodriguezRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	16
Team	8.0	5	4	3	5	5	115

Player

M. KingSP

6.0

A. MorejonRP

1.0

B. RodriguezRP

1.0

Team

8.0

115

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. OhtaniDH	.288	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. PagesCF	.269	2	0	0	0	0	2	0
F. Freeman1B	.293	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. BettsSS	.244	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
M. Muncy3B	.268	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
K. TuckerRF	.246	4	1	0	0	0	0	0
T. HernándezLF	.269	4	1	1	4	1	0	1
D. RushingC	.264	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. Freeland2B	.223	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Rojas2B	.291	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. Edman2B	.378	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		29	4	5	4	1	5	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. OhtaniDH	6.0	7	3	3	2	9	110
K. HurtRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	16
E. HenriquezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
T. ScottRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	18
Team	9.0	8	3	3	3	14	155

Team

LAD

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

LAD vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

LAD vs SD.

3 sub-models, blended.