Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at SD?

The model favors SD, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 11, 2026

FINAL+1SD

TOR

45-50

47-48

Petco Park · San Diego, California

40,561 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SD spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

SD no-vig %

50.3%

open 50.0% · +0.3

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.4%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
63.3%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
61.5%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
63.3%
P(SD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.84 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.33

CLV pp

Open price

-110

Close price

-111

Open no-vig

50.0%

Close no-vig

50.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at SD?: The model favors SD, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+22.7pp

best edge · TOR · DraftKings

TOR

★ best

+559DraftKings

edge +22.7pp · implied 14.4%

no live price

Book	TOR	SD	Best edge
DraftKings	+559★	-920	+22.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

SD vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 110 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.7high
Trey YesavageTOR
5.3± 3.0medium
Michael KingSD
4.7± 1.6high

Hits

Ty FranceSD
1.3± 1.0high
Jackson MerrillSD
1.2± 1.1high
George SpringerTOR
1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

Jackson MerrillSD
2.0± 2.1high
George SpringerTOR
1.9± 1.6high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
1.9± 2.0high

RBIs

Jackson MerrillSD
0.7± 0.8high
George SpringerTOR
0.7± 1.3high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Jameson TaillonTOR
3.5± 2.7medium
Max ScherzerTOR
3.4± 3.9low
Walker BuehlerSD
3.0± 2.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TOR

league avg

.682

OPS

.720

▶

.694

.304

OBP

.318

▶

.311

3.91

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.19

4.04

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.15

1.31

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.33

9.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

TOR 7 · SD 8 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TOR	0	4	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	7
SD	2	2	2	1	0	1	0	0	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. Clement2B	.297	4	0	1	0	0	1	0
N. LukesRF	.287	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.265	4	1	2	3	1	1	2
G. SpringerDH	.218	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Okamoto3B	.235	4	1	0	0	0	1	2
D. VarshoCF	.240	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
A. KirkC	.202	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
A. GimenezSS	.232	3	0	0	1	0	0	0
J. ClaseLF	.308	2	2	1	2	1	2	1
M. StrawRF	.236	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. Urias2B	.292	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		34	7	8	7	2	6	7

Player

.297

.287

.265

.218

.235

.240

.202

.232

.308

.236

.292

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. YesavageSP	1.2	1	4	4	7	1	59
A. MackoRP	1.1	2	2	2	1	2	37
B. FisherRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	2	27
M. FluhartyRP	2.0	2	1	1	0	1	28
S. MilesRP	2.0	1	0	0	2	1	39
Team	8.0	8	8	8	11	7	190

Player

1.2

1.1

1.0

2.0

2.0

Team

8.0

190

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.280	3	1	0	0	0	2	1
J. MerrillCF	.222	3	2	2	0	0	2	0
X. BogaertsSS	.224	2	0	0	0	0	3	1
M. Machado3B	.196	5	0	1	2	0	0	1
G. Sheets1B	.224	2	1	0	1	0	3	1
T. France1B	.265	3	2	2	2	1	0	0
J. Cronenworth2B	.187	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
L. CampusanoC	.300	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
S. Song2B	.217	3	1	1	2	0	1	0
J. BowenRF	.119	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		29	8	8	8	1	11	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. BuehlerSP	2.0	3	4	4	4	1	65
M. WaldronRP	3.0	2	0	0	1	3	46
Y. MatsuiRP	0.2	0	2	2	1	0	20
B. RodriguezRP	1.1	1	1	1	0	0	15
A. MorejonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	11
M. MillerRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	14
Team	9.0	8	7	7	6	7	171

Team

TOR

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

SD vs TOR.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SD vs TOR.

3 sub-models, blended.