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San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs
SD
SD
38-35
PregameMon, 8:05 PM EDT
CHC
CHC
38-36
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Home starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.
Head to head
SeriesSeries tied 1-1
TypePreseason Series
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
47.6%
ensemble · SD favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CHC vs SD.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
122
projections · 72 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Shota ImanagaCHC5.4± 2.8medium
- Griffin CanningSD4.9± 2.2low
- Edward CabreraCHC4.8± 2.8low
Hits
- Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC1.6± 1.4high
- Fernando Tatis Jr.SD1.3± 1.2high
- Samad TaylorSD1.2± 1.1low
Total bases
- Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC3.3± 3.6high
- Seiya SuzukiCHC1.8± 1.6high
- Fernando Tatis Jr.SD1.7± 1.8high
RBIs
- Samad TaylorSD0.9± 1.7low
- Seiya SuzukiCHC0.7± 1.2high
- Michael BuschCHC0.6± 1.0high
Earned runs
- Griffin CanningSD3.8± 3.1low
- Edward CabreraCHC3.4± 2.6low
- Colin ReaCHC3.3± 2.3medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
SD
league avg
CHC
.652
OPS
.717
▶.726
.291
OBP
.319
▶.332
3.84
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.54
3.85
Team ERA
◀
4.17
4.24
1.29
WHIP
1.31
▶1.25
8.4
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.0
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant