San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 5, 2026

FINAL+3SD

44-45

LAD

59-32

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California

46,506 attended

Line movement

43 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 9.5 · +0.5

LAD no-vig %

66.3%

open 65.7% · +0.6

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.5%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
66.9%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
66.1%
P(LAD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
67.6%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.61 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAD vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 104 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tarik SkubalLAD
7.6± 2.7medium
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.1± 2.4high
Justin WrobleskiLAD
5.6± 3.5medium

Hits

Freddie FreemanLAD
1.8± 0.9high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.2± 1.0high
Ty FranceSD
1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

Freddie FreemanLAD
2.3± 1.4high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.2± 2.5high
Enrique HernandezLAD
2.0± 3.4low

RBIs

Shohei OhtaniLAD
0.7± 1.1high
Ty FranceSD
0.7± 1.3high
Dalton RushingLAD
0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

Walker BuehlerSD
3.0± 2.8high
Griffin CanningSD
2.8± 2.4medium
Emmet SheehanLAD
2.6± 2.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

LAD

.696

OPS

.720

▶

.774

.312

OBP

.318

▶

.341

4.21

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.12

4.14

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.60

1.33

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.14

8.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SD 5 · LAD 2 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +17pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	0	0	5
LAD	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.284	5	1	3	1	0	0	1
J. Cronenworth2B	.168	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. Machado3B	.189	2	2	1	3	1	3	0
G. Sheets1B	.236	5	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. France1B	.253	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. MerrillCF	.214	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
X. BogaertsSS	.231	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
S. Song2B	.239	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
L. CampusanoC	.286	2	1	1	0	0	2	0
M. AndujarDH	.257	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BowenRF	.118	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	5	8	5	1	6	9

Player

.284

.168

.189

.236

.253

.214

.231

.239

.286

.257

.118

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SearsSP	5.0	1	0	0	2	5	76
Y. MatsuiRP	0.2	0	0	0	2	0	14
B. RodriguezRP	0.2	0	1	1	1	1	18
A. MorejonRP	1.2	3	1	1	1	3	38
M. MillerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	17
Team	9.0	4	2	2	6	10	163

Player

5.0

0.2

0.2

1.2

1.0

Team

9.0

163

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. OhtaniDH	.288	3	0	1	1	0	1	1
A. PagesCF	.267	2	0	0	0	0	2	1
F. Freeman1B	.293	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. BettsSS	.241	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
T. HernándezLF	.261	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
A. CallLF	.262	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
M. Rojas2B	.295	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. Freeland2B	.226	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
E. AlfonzoC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Muncy3B	.264	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. TuckerRF	.246	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
T. Edman2B	.347	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. RushingC	.259	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	2	4	2	0	6	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. SheehanSP	4.1	3	1	1	3	5	96
J. DreyerRP	1.2	0	0	0	1	2	27
K. HurtRP	1.0	3	4	4	1	0	22
P. GervaseRP	2.0	2	0	0	1	2	32
Team	9.0	8	5	5	6	9	177

Team

LAD

3 sub-models, blended.

LAD vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

LAD vs SD.

3 sub-models, blended.