Park factor
96 total idx
Petco Park run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Toronto Blue Jays at San Diego Padres
TOR
TOR
36-38
PregameFri, 9:40 PM EDT
SD
SD
38-35
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketPetco Park · San Diego, California
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Home starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.
Head to head
SeriesSeries starts 7/10
TypeRegular Season Series
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
47.3%
ensemble · TOR favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
SD vs TOR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
122
projections · 73 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Dylan CeaseTOR8.4± 3.0low
- Kevin GausmanTOR5.4± 2.4medium
- Trey YesavageTOR5.2± 2.2low
Hits
- Fernando Tatis Jr.SD1.3± 1.3high
- Samad TaylorSD1.2± 1.1low
- Jackson MerrillSD1.1± 1.0high
Total bases
- Fernando Tatis Jr.SD1.9± 1.9high
- Jackson MerrillSD1.9± 2.0high
- Ernie ClementTOR1.8± 2.4high
RBIs
- Samad TaylorSD0.8± 1.7low
- Kazuma OkamotoTOR0.7± 0.7high
- Fernando Tatis Jr.SD0.6± 0.9high
Earned runs
- Griffin CanningSD3.4± 3.2low
- Simeon Woods RichardsonTOR2.8± 3.3low
- Yu DarvishSD2.6± 1.2medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
TOR
league avg
SD
.702
OPS
◀
.718
.652
.313
OBP
◀
.319
.291
4.08
Runs / G
◀
4.50
3.84
4.02
Team ERA
4.18
▶3.85
1.28
WHIP
1.31
1.29
9.1
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.4
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant