Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at DET?

The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 10, 2026

FINAL+8DET

PHI

52-43

210

DET

44-50

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan

34,084 attended

Line movement

45 snapshots

DET spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

DET no-vig %

52.1%

open 52.1%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.4%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
42.3%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
43.5%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
43.7%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-101

Close price

-101

Open no-vig

47.9%

Close no-vig

47.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at DET?: The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

DET vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 106 high confidence

Strikeouts

Zack WheelerPHI
7.5± 3.7medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
7.4± 3.3high
Cristopher SanchezPHI
6.3± 3.1high

Hits

Max ClarkDET
2.0± 1.4low
Luis ArraezPHI
1.4± 1.4high
Eduardo ValenciaDET
1.3± 1.8low

Total bases

Max ClarkDET
3.7± 3.1low
Eduardo ValenciaDET
2.6± 4.3low
Bryan De La CruzPHI
2.0± 2.0low

RBIs

Eduardo ValenciaDET
1.0± 2.2low
Max ClarkDET
1.0± 1.4low
Hao-Yu LeeDET
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Andrew PainterPHI
3.8± 2.6medium
Aaron NolaPHI
3.3± 1.8high
Framber ValdezDET
2.6± 2.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

DET

.705

OPS

.719

▶

.727

.304

OBP

.318

▶

.318

4.38

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.51

4.22

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.59

1.31

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.21

10.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

PHI 2 · DET 10 (by 8)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	2
DET	0	0	2	0	0	5	3	0	10

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.237	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. SchwarberDH	.252	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. Harper1B	.258	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
B. MarshLF	.306	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
A. Bohm3B	.218	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Stott2B	.243	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
G. Rincones Jr.RF	.190	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. HillRF	.356	4	1	3	2	1	0	1
R. MarchanC	.106	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	2	4	2	1	3	7

Player

.237

.252

.258

.306

.218

.243

.190

.356

.106

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. NolaSP	5.0	3	2	2	2	8	84
T. MayzaRP	1.0	2	5	4	2	1	36
M. LazarRP	1.0	3	3	3	1	0	16
G. StubbsC	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	4
Team	8.0	8	10	9	5	9	140

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

140

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. McGonigleSS	.286	5	1	1	2	1	0	1
C. Keith3B	.249	5	1	1	1	1	0	1
R. GreeneLF	.291	1	2	1	0	0	3	0
S. Torkelson1B	.213	4	1	1	2	1	0	1
K. CarpenterRF	.225	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. ValenciaC	.600	4	1	2	1	0	0	2
Z. McKinstry2B	.199	3	1	0	1	0	0	1
J. OutmanCF	.155	4	1	1	2	0	0	1
J. RogersC	.176	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
B. MalgeriRF	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. VierlingCF	.198	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
Team		32	10	8	9	3	5	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. FlahertySP	6.0	2	2	2	3	6	86
J. WaguespackRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	16
D. SommersRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	3
B. BrieskeRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	1	25
Team	9.0	4	2	2	3	7	130

Team

PHI

DET

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

DET vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

DET vs PHI.

3 sub-models, blended.