Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at MIA?

The model favors MIA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 29, 2026

FINAL+2MIA

PHI

57-52

MIA

55-54

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida

14,350 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIA spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 8.0 · -0.5

MIA no-vig %

41.6%

open 41.7% · -0.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.6%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
52.4%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.6%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.6%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.73 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-3.15

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+129

Close price

+148

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

38.6%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at MIA?: The model favors MIA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+42.8pp

best edge · MIA · DraftKings

PHI

no live price

MIA

★ best

+790DraftKings

edge +42.8pp · implied 10.6%

Book	PHI	MIA	Best edge
DraftKings	-1960	+790★	+42.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

MIA vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 114 high confidence

Strikeouts

Zack WheelerPHI
7.5± 3.7medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
7.4± 3.3high
Cristopher SanchezPHI
6.4± 2.9high

Hits

Luis ArraezPHI
1.4± 1.2high
Trea TurnerPHI
1.3± 1.2high
Otto LopezMIA
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Bryce HarperPHI
2.1± 1.6high
Trea TurnerPHI
2.0± 2.1high
Kyle StowersMIA
1.9± 2.0high

RBIs

Owen CaissieMIA
0.7± 1.1high
Bryan De La CruzPHI
0.7± 1.4low
Bryce HarperPHI
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Andrew PainterPHI
3.6± 2.8medium
Aaron NolaPHI
3.1± 1.7high
Janson JunkMIA
2.9± 3.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

MIA

.709

OPS

.720

▶

.727

.307

OBP

.318

▶

.324

4.41

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.33

4.19

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.04

1.30

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.25

10.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

PHI 6 · MIA 8 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIA +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	0	0	2	1	3	0	0	0	0	6
MIA	0	0	0	0	3	0	3	2	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.243	5	1	2	1	1	0	0
B. Stott2B	.254	2	1	1	2	0	2	0
B. Harper1B	.252	4	1	1	1	0	0	2
A. Bohm3B	.225	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
J.T. RealmutoC	.225	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
B. MarshLF	.280	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. De La CruzRF	.500	3	0	0	1	0	0	2
J. CrawfordCF	.257	3	1	2	0	0	1	1
E. SosaLF	.208	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		32	6	9	6	1	4	7

Player

.243

.254

.252

.225

.225

.280

.500

.257

.208

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. LuzardoSP	6.1	6	6	6	3	5	100
S. JohnsonRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	0	17
J. BowlanRP	1.0	1	2	2	1	1	18
Team	8.0	8	8	8	5	6	135

Player

J. LuzardoSP

6.1

100

S. JohnsonRP

0.2

J. BowlanRP

1.0

Team

8.0

135

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. LopezSS	.329	5	1	2	2	0	0	0
H. HernandezLF	.241	4	1	1	2	1	0	0
L. HicksC	.279	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
X. Edwards2B	.291	3	0	1	2	0	1	0
J. Sanoja3B	.265	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
K. Stowers1B	.232	3	1	0	0	0	1	2
E. RuizRF	.254	4	2	2	0	0	0	2
B. NavarretoC	.143	2	1	0	0	0	0	1
J. MarseeCF	.197	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
G. ConineRF	.277	1	1	1	2	1	0	0
J. MackC	.237	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	8	8	8	2	5	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. GustoSP	5.0	9	6	6	2	3	79
D. FultonRP	2.0	0	0	0	2	1	26
T. ZuberRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14
P. FairbanksRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
Team	9.0	9	6	6	4	7	132

Team

PHI

MIA

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

MIA vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

MIA vs PHI.

3 sub-models, blended.