Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in IND at MIN?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+8MIN

IND

19-11

100108

MIN

25-6

WNBASun, Aug 2FinalSeriesMIN leads series 1-0VegasMIN -5.5

IND · top performer

Kelsey Mitchell

G · #0

29.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIN · top performer

Olivia Miles

G · #5

23.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowIND ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 16pp · 4th Quarter · 2:37

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BillingsF · #25	23	9	3-5	0-1	3-4	-11	3	2
A. BostonC · #7	33	15	7-14	1-4	—	-8	8	7
K. MitchellG · #0	35	37	14-21	6-8	3-4	-6	1	3
L. HullG · #10	14	6	2-2	1-1	1-1	-3	2	1
C. ClarkG · #22	34	19	8-18	2-9	1-1	-7	1	10
Bench
M. Hines-AllenF · #2	2	0	0-1	—	—	-3	2	1
M. TimpsonF · #21	21	7	3-4	—	1-3	+6	5	0
S. CunninghamG · #8	23	3	1-2	1-1	—	+1	1	2
T. HarrisG · #52	10	2	—	—	2-2	0	0	1
R. JohnsonG · #3	4	2	1-1	—	—	-9	0	0
Team		100	39-68	11-24	11-15		23	27
DNP: G. VanSlooten, D. Dantas

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. HowardF · #1	23	13	6-9	—	1-2	+16	4	5
N. CollierF · #24	31	18	6-13	3-5	3-4	+16	8	7
K. McBrideG · #21	29	10	4-10	2-6	—	+6	3	1
C. WilliamsG · #10	34	27	12-20	2-4	1-2	+18	4	5
O. MilesG · #5	32	28	11-14	3-6	3-3	-1	4	6
Bench
N. CoffeyF · #12	15	4	2-4	0-1	—	-6	2	0
D. JuhaszF · #14	11	2	1-1	—	—	-10	1	1
A. DelaereF · #8	9	0	0-2	0-1	—	+3	0	1
M. CaldwellG · #3	17	6	1-3	1-2	3-4	-2	7	2
Team		108	43-76	11-25	11-15		33	28
DNP: C. Bibby, A. Kosu, E. Joklova

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

IND

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

39-68

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-76

FG %

11-24

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-25

11-15

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

11-15

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIN leads series 1-0

Aug 2

IND100@

MIN108today

Sep 23

MIN@

INDupcoming

Sep 25

IND@

MINupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

190.5

High-scoring · +25.5 vs avg

Moneyline

IND+18036%

MIN-21869%

13· 6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -5.5↗SpreadBet MIN -5.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

190.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat IND 108-100. O. Miles paced them with 28 PTS, 4 REB, 6 AST. MIN outscored the other side 28-20 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIN vs IND

Starters vs bench

production by unit

INDstarters 86% of pts

Starters(5)

86 PTS · 15 REB · 23 AST

GS 69

Bench(5)

14 PTS · 8 REB · 4 AST

GS 13

MINstarters 89% of pts

Starters(5)

96 PTS · 23 REB · 24 AST

GS 85

Bench(4)

12 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST

GS 16

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

IND2nd Quarter · 8:36 · 38-38

+11pp→ 47% WP

Aliyah Boston · kicked ball violation

IND4th Quarter · 2:37 · 97-100

+16pp→ 31% WP

Kelsey Mitchell · makes free throw 1 of 3

IND4th Quarter · 51.8 · 100-105

+13pp→ 15% WP

Napheesa Collier · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
IND	33	20	23	24	100
MIN	36	28	23	21	108

Period scoring

IND won 1 · MIN won 2

Mitchell 17

Miles 9

Clark 7

Miles 14

Hull 6

Collier 8

Mitchell 9

Williams 11

IND

MIN

Shooting comparison

IND

MIN

57%

39-68

57%

43-76

46%

11-24

3PT

44%

11-25

73%

11-15

73%

11-15

Play-by-play · 371 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 100·MIN 108
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 100·MIN 108
Q4·13.3
Kayla McBride defensive rebound
IND 100·MIN 108
Q4·16.1
Aliyah Boston misses 23-foot three point pullup jump shot
IND 100·MIN 108
+0.6pp
Q4·23.6
Aliyah Boston defensive rebound
IND 100·MIN 108
Q4·25.6
Courtney Williams misses free throw 2 of 2
IND 100·MIN 108
−0.7pp
Q4·25.6
Caitlin Clark enters the game for Lexie Hull
·
IND 100·MIN 108
Q4·25.6
Courtney Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 100·MIN 108
Q4·25.6
Lexie Hull personal take foul
IND 100·MIN 107
Q4·27.2
Makayla Timpson enters the game for Caitlin Clark
·
IND 100·MIN 107
Q4·27.2
Caitlin Clark out of bounds bad pass turnover
IND 100·MIN 107
+1pp
Q4·32.3
Caitlin Clark enters the game for Makayla Timpson
·
IND 100·MIN 107
Q4·32.3
Fever Full timeout
IND 100·MIN 107
Q4·32.7
Courtney Williams makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot (Kayla McBride assists)
·
IND 100·MIN 107
+4pp
Q4·50.8
Lynx Reset Timeout
IND 100·MIN 105
Q4·50.8
Natasha Howard defensive rebound
IND 100·MIN 105
Q4·51.8
Makayla Timpson misses free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
IND 100·MIN 105
+10pp
Q4·51.8
Lexie Hull enters the game for Caitlin Clark
·
IND 100·MIN 105
Q4·51.8
Napheesa Collier shooting foulBIG MOMENT
IND 100·MIN 105
−13pp
Q4·51.8
Makayla Timpson makes driving layup (Caitlin Clark assists)
·
IND 100·MIN 105
Q4·58.7
Fever Reset Timeout
IND 98·MIN 105
Q4·58.7
Olivia Miles makes free throw 1 of 1
IND 98·MIN 105
−0.7pp
Q4·58.7
Kelsey Mitchell shooting foul
IND 98·MIN 104
+3pp
Q4·58.7
Olivia Miles makes 1-foot two point shot
IND 98·MIN 104
+3pp
Q4·1:12
Napheesa Collier defensive rebound
IND 98·MIN 102
+1pp
Q4·1:14
Kelsey Mitchell misses running pullup jump shot
IND 98·MIN 102
+4pp
Q4·1:19
Aliyah Boston defensive rebound
IND 98·MIN 102
−1pp
Q4·1:19
Makayla Timpson blocks Natasha Howard 's 2-foot two point shot
·
IND 98·MIN 102
−3pp
Q4·1:19
Natasha Howard offensive rebound
IND 98·MIN 102
+4pp
Q4·1:22
Kayla McBride misses two point shotBIG MOMENT
IND 98·MIN 102
−7pp

Betting line

MIN -5.5·O/U 190.5·IND +180/MIN -218

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

innesota Lynx held off Indiana Fever, 108–100.

MIN -5.5 cashed (won by 8). Total cleared the 190.5 OVER by 17.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

IND

MIN

eFG%

shooting

65.4%

63.8%

TOV%

ball control

13.9%

6.8%

OREB%

offensive glass

18.5%

37.9%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

16.2%

14.5%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Natasha HowardMIN · F
ORB%.15099
Caitlin ClarkIND · G
USG%.30497
Aliyah BostonIND · C
DRB%.28196
Kayla McBrideMIN · G
AST/TO2.391
Olivia MilesMIN · G
TS%.65191

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

73.5%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
76.4%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
74.5%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
74.5%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.90 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.76

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-238

Close price

-218

Open no-vig

67.5%

Close no-vig

65.7%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in IND at MIN?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.5pp

best edge · IND · DraftKings

IND

★ best

+390DraftKings

edge +5.5pp · implied 19.2%

MIN

no live price

Book	IND	MIN	Best edge
DraftKings	+390★	-600	+5.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

MIN vs IND.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 90 high confidence

Points

Kelsey MitchellIND
26.2± 4.8high
Caitlin ClarkIND
21.2± 10.9high
Kayla McBrideMIN
20.7± 8.2high

Rebounds

Aliyah BostonIND
7.3± 3.3high
Natasha HowardMIN
7.1± 2.9high
Monique BillingsIND
5.8± 3.2high

Assists

Caitlin ClarkIND
7.5± 2.6high
Olivia MilesMIN
6.0± 2.8high
Courtney WilliamsMIN
4.4± 1.9high

Blocks

Makayla TimpsonIND
1.0± 1.4high
Dorka JuhaszMIN
1.0± 0.3low
Nia CoffeyMIN
0.9± 0.9high

Steals

Kayla McBrideMIN
1.9± 1.4high
Natasha HowardMIN
1.7± 1.1high
Aliyah BostonIND
1.5± 1.6high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

On the call · WNBA

3 officials

Referee

Tim Greene

Referee

Tiara Cruse

Referee

Clare Simmons

Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.

Team pages

Indiana FeverMinnesota Lynx

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop