Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at NYM?

The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 27, 2026

FINAL+4NYM

PHI

46-37

NYM

35-48

Citi Field · Queens, New York

37,338 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYM spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

NYM no-vig %

56.3%

open 56.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

34.9%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
40.2%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
43.1%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
40.0%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.41 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.01

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

44.7%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at NYM?: The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+33.5pp

best edge · NYM · DraftKings

PHI

no live price

NYM

★ best

—DraftKings

edge +33.5pp · implied 0.0%

Book	PHI	NYM	Best edge
DraftKings	+111	—★	+33.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

NYM vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 104 high confidence

Strikeouts

Zack WheelerPHI
7.5± 3.7medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
7.4± 3.3high
Nolan McLeanNYM
7.0± 1.7high

Hits

Bryan De La CruzPHI
1.1± 0.9low
Trea TurnerPHI
1.1± 1.0high
Bo BichetteNYM
1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

Francisco LindorNYM
2.0± 3.5high
Bryan De La CruzPHI
2.0± 2.0low
Tyrone TaylorNYM
1.9± 2.3high

RBIs

Tyrone TaylorNYM
0.8± 1.3high
Alec BohmPHI
0.8± 1.4high
Bryan De La CruzPHI
0.8± 1.4low

Earned runs

Andrew PainterPHI
3.8± 2.6medium
Aaron NolaPHI
3.3± 1.8high
Kodai SengaNYM
3.2± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

NYM

.705

OPS

◀

.719

.683

.304

OBP

.318

.303

4.38

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.04

4.22

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.10

1.31

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.29

10.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

PHI 2 · NYM 6 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
NYM	0	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.233	3	1	0	0	0	1	2
K. SchwarberDH	.253	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
B. Harper1B	.278	4	1	2	2	1	0	1
B. MarshLF	.318	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
B. Stott2B	.236	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
E. SosaLF	.222	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. Rincones Jr.RF	.118	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. CrawfordCF	.242	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. MarchanC	.115	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		31	2	5	2	1	3	10

Player

.233

.253

.278

.318

.236

.222

.118

.242

.115

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. MayzaRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	26
A. RangelRP	4.0	4	4	4	2	4	70
J. BowlanRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	1	10
K. BackhusRP	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	27
S. JohnsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	16
Team	8.0	8	6	6	5	9	149

Player

1.1

4.0

0.2

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

149

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BengeRF	.258	5	1	2	0	0	0	1
J. SotoLF	.299	3	2	2	1	0	1	0
B. Bichette3B	.254	3	1	1	1	0	0	1
F. LindorSS	.219	3	1	1	2	0	1	0
J. Young1B	.238	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
M. Vientos1B	.214	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
A.J. EwingCF	.271	4	0	2	2	0	0	1
B. Baty3B	.212	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
F. AlvarezC	.250	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. Wagaman1B	.217	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	6	8	6	0	5	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. ScottSP	4.1	3	2	2	2	6	82
A.J. MinterRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	22
H. BrazobanRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	10
L. WeaverRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	15
D. WilliamsRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	14
Team	9.0	5	2	2	3	10	143

Team

PHI

NYM

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

NYM vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

NYM vs PHI.

3 sub-models, blended.