Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 11, 2026

FINAL+2PHI

PHI

53-43

DET

44-51

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan

33,705 attended

Line movement

85 snapshots

DET spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

DET no-vig %

42.9%

open 42.9%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

37.8%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
42.3%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
42.2%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
43.7%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.69 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DET vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

133

projections · 111 high confidence

Strikeouts

Zack WheelerPHI
7.5± 3.7medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
7.4± 3.3high
Cristopher SanchezPHI
6.3± 3.1high

Hits

Max ClarkDET
2.0± 1.4low
Luis ArraezPHI
1.4± 1.4high
Eduardo ValenciaDET
1.3± 1.8low

Total bases

Max ClarkDET
3.7± 3.1low
Eduardo ValenciaDET
2.6± 4.3low
Bryce HarperPHI
2.0± 1.6high

RBIs

Eduardo ValenciaDET
1.0± 2.2low
Max ClarkDET
1.0± 1.4low
Hao-Yu LeeDET
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Andrew PainterPHI
3.8± 2.6medium
Aaron NolaPHI
3.1± 1.7high
Framber ValdezDET
2.6± 2.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

DET

.706

OPS

.720

▶

.727

.305

OBP

.318

▶

.318

4.39

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.51

4.21

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.59

1.31

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.21

10.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PHI 4 · DET 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	0	4
DET	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.236	2	0	0	1	0	1	1
K. SchwarberDH	.252	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. Harper1B	.261	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
B. MarshLF	.304	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
A. Bohm3B	.216	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
B. Stott2B	.246	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
J.T. RealmutoC	.200	4	1	1	2	0	0	1
G. Rincones Jr.RF	.179	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. HillCF	.354	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
Team		32	4	7	4	0	2	9

Player

.236

.252

.261

.304

.216

.246

.200

.179

.354

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SanchezSP	7.0	10	2	2	1	7	103
J. BowlanRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	9
J. DuranRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	8
Team	9.0	10	2	2	2	7	120

Player

C. SanchezSP

7.0

103

J. BowlanRP

1.0

J. DuranRP

1.0

Team

9.0

120

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. VierlingCF	.209	3	1	3	0	0	1	0
K. McGonigleSS	.285	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. DinglerC	.265	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
S. Torkelson1B	.210	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. GreeneLF	.288	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
E. ValenciaC	.556	4	1	2	1	1	0	0
H. Lee2B	.255	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
B. MalgeriRF	.261	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
Z. McKinstry2B	.195	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Keith3B	.248	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. CarpenterRF	.224	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	2	10	1	1	2	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. MizeSP	5.2	5	4	3	2	5	97
D. AndersonRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	19
T. HoltonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	9
K. JansenRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	13
Team	9.0	7	4	3	2	9	138

Team

PHI

DET

3 sub-models, blended.

DET vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

DET vs PHI.

3 sub-models, blended.