Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at KC?

The model favors KC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 6, 2026

FINAL+14KC

PHI

50-41

115

37-54

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri

13,496 attended

Line movement

30 snapshots

KC spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

KC no-vig %

34.4%

open 34.4%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.2%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
46.6%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
44.2%
P(KC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
46.3%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.06 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+178

Close price

+178

Open no-vig

34.4%

Close no-vig

34.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at KC?: The model favors KC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

KC vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 98 high confidence

Strikeouts

Zack WheelerPHI
7.9± 3.2medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
7.4± 3.3high
Cristopher SanchezPHI
6.3± 3.1high

Hits

Bryan De La CruzPHI
1.1± 0.9low
Trea TurnerPHI
1.1± 1.0high
Alec BohmPHI
1.0± 1.0high

Total bases

John RaveKC
2.0± 3.3low
Salvador PerezKC
1.9± 1.8high
Trea TurnerPHI
1.9± 2.2high

RBIs

Luke MaileKC
1.0± 1.9low
Alec BohmPHI
0.9± 1.4high
Bryson StottPHI
0.6± 1.6high

Earned runs

Andrew PainterPHI
3.8± 2.6medium
Aaron NolaPHI
3.3± 1.8high
Noah CameronKC
3.0± 2.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

.702

OPS

.720

▶

.713

.303

OBP

.318

▶

.314

4.34

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.16

4.24

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.84

1.31

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.43

9.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

PHI 1 · KC 15 (by 14)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
KC	6	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	15

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.242	4	1	3	0	0	0	0
K. SchwarberDH	.252	3	0	0	0	0	1	3
B. Harper1B	.270	1	0	0	0	0	3	1
A. Bohm3B	.224	5	0	1	1	0	0	1
B. MarshLF	.305	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
E. SosaLF	.216	4	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. Stott2B	.251	4	0	2	0	0	1	1
J.T. RealmutoC	.204	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
D. HillRF	.297	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
G. Rincones Jr.RF	.212	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. MarchanC	.111	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. CrawfordCF	.254	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. StubbsC	.179	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		36	1	10	1	0	7	13

Player

.242

.252

.270

.224

.305

.216

.251

.204

.297

.212

.111

.254

.179

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SanchezSP	3.1	12	9	9	1	1	83
S. JohnsonRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	15
T. BanksRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	16
K. BackhusRP	1.0	4	1	1	0	1	20
L. TrivinoRP	1.0	1	2	2	2	1	29
G. StubbsC	1.0	4	2	2	1	0	19
Team	8.0	22	15	15	5	5	182

Player

3.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

182

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. ThomasCF	.222	3	1	2	1	1	1	1
B. Witt Jr.SS	.292	4	2	2	0	0	0	0
S. PerezDH	.209	4	1	3	1	1	0	0
J. CaglianoneRF	.259	6	1	2	2	0	0	2
N. Loftin3B	.236	5	2	3	2	0	1	0
S. MarteRF	.269	5	1	2	2	0	0	1
T. TolbertSS	.333	5	3	5	2	1	0	0
L. MaileC	.250	4	2	1	3	1	1	0
J. Rojas3B	.160	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. MisnerCF	.220	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
M. Massey2B	.257	1	1	1	1	0	1	0
I. CollinsLF	.238	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		44	15	22	14	4	5	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. CameronSP	5.0	6	1	1	5	7	105
S. CruzRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	18
B. WayRP	1.0	2	0	0	1	1	21
J. CuasRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	3	36
Team	9.0	10	1	1	7	13	180

Team

PHI

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

KC vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

KC vs PHI.

3 sub-models, blended.