Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at DET?

The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 12, 2026

FINAL+5PHI

PHI

54-43

DET

44-52

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan

35,065 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

DET spread

-1.5

open +1.5 · -3.0

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.5 · -0.5

DET no-vig %

55.1%

open 50.4% · +4.7

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

37.4%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
42.3%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
41.9%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
43.7%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.77 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-4.67

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-108

Close price

+113

Open no-vig

49.6%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at DET?: The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+16.6pp

best edge · PHI · DraftKings

PHI

★ best

+102DraftKings

edge +16.6pp · implied 46.5%

DET

no live price

Book	PHI	DET	Best edge
DraftKings	+102★	-132	+16.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

DET vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 106 high confidence

Strikeouts

Zack WheelerPHI
7.5± 3.7medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
7.4± 3.3high
Cristopher SanchezPHI
6.3± 3.1high

Hits

Max ClarkDET
2.0± 1.4low
Luis ArraezPHI
1.4± 1.4high
Eduardo ValenciaDET
1.3± 1.8low

Total bases

Max ClarkDET
3.7± 3.1low
Eduardo ValenciaDET
2.6± 4.3low
Bryan De La CruzPHI
2.0± 2.0low

RBIs

Eduardo ValenciaDET
1.0± 2.2low
Max ClarkDET
1.0± 1.4low
Hao-Yu LeeDET
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Andrew PainterPHI
3.8± 2.6medium
Aaron NolaPHI
3.3± 1.8high
Framber ValdezDET
2.6± 2.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

DET

.705

OPS

.719

▶

.727

.304

OBP

.318

▶

.318

4.38

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.51

4.22

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.59

1.31

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.21

10.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PHI 5 · DET 0 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	0	0	1	0	0	4	0	0	0	5
DET	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.236	4	0	1	0	0	1	1
K. SchwarberDH	.254	5	0	2	1	0	0	3
B. Harper1B	.260	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
A. Bohm3B	.215	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
E. SosaLF	.218	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. MarshLF	.301	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
D. HillRF	.327	4	0	0	0	0	0	4
J.T. RealmutoC	.206	3	2	2	3	0	0	0
B. Stott2B	.249	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
Team		35	5	9	5	0	3	12

Player

.236

.254

.260

.215

.218

.301

.327

.206

.249

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. WheelerSP	6.0	2	0	0	2	10	96
J. AlvaradoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
O. KerkeringRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15
J. BowlanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15
Team	9.0	2	0	0	2	14	139

Player

6.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

139

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. McGonigleSS	.283	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. DinglerC	.262	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Keith3B	.245	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
R. GreeneLF	.288	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
S. Torkelson1B	.208	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. CarpenterRF	.222	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
Z. McKinstry2B	.197	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. VierlingCF	.206	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. OutmanCF	.148	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. ValenciaC	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		29	0	2	0	0	2	14

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. SkubalSP	5.0	4	2	2	1	5	93
K. MonteroSP	3.0	4	3	3	1	5	58
D. SommersRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	1	14
B. BrieskeRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	6
Team	9.0	9	5	5	3	12	171

Team

PHI

DET

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

DET vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

DET vs PHI.

3 sub-models, blended.