Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYM at PHI?

The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 16, 2026

FINAL+3NYM

NYM

41-57

PHI

54-44

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

40,109 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 0.0 · +9.5

PHI no-vig %

54.2%

open 56.9% · -2.7

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.0%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
64.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
60.9%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
65.2%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.81 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-3.79

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-147

Close price

-125

Open no-vig

56.9%

Close no-vig

53.1%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYM at PHI?: The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+9.6pp

best edge · PHI · DraftKings

NYM

no live price

PHI

★ best

-130DraftKings

edge +9.6pp · implied 54.0%

Book	NYM	PHI	Best edge
DraftKings	+108	-130★	+9.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

PHI vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 100 high confidence

Strikeouts

Zack WheelerPHI
7.5± 3.7medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
7.4± 3.3high
Nolan McLeanNYM
7.0± 1.7high

Hits

Luis ArraezPHI
1.4± 1.4high
Trea TurnerPHI
1.1± 1.0high
Bo BichetteNYM
1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

Francisco LindorNYM
2.0± 3.5high
Bryce HarperPHI
2.0± 1.6high
Trea TurnerPHI
1.9± 2.2high

RBIs

Francisco LindorNYM
0.7± 1.9high
Bryan De La CruzPHI
0.7± 1.4low
Bryce HarperPHI
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Andrew PainterPHI
3.8± 2.6medium
Kodai SengaNYM
3.2± 2.9low
Aaron NolaPHI
3.1± 1.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYM

league avg

PHI

.683

OPS

.720

▶

.706

.303

OBP

.318

.305

4.04

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.39

4.10

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.21

1.29

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.31

9.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

10.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

NYM 4 · PHI 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYM	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	1	4
PHI	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A.J. EwingCF	.274	5	0	1	1	0	0	2
J. SotoLF	.292	1	0	1	0	0	3	0
B. Bichette3B	.253	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. LindorSS	.210	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. BengeRF	.263	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. PolancoDH	.169	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Young1B	.245	2	1	0	0	0	2	2
B. Baty3B	.224	4	1	2	1	1	0	0
F. AlvarezC	.259	3	2	2	2	2	1	1
T. TaylorLF	.215	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	4	7	4	3	6	8

Player

.274

.292

.253

.210

.263

.169

.245

.224

.259

.215

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. ScottSP	5.2	3	0	0	0	7	79
B. RaleyRP	0.1	0	0	0	1	1	7
H. BrazobanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	12
L. WeaverRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	9
D. WilliamsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
Team	9.0	4	1	1	1	9	120

Player

5.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

120

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.236	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
K. SchwarberDH	.254	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. Harper1B	.261	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
B. MarshLF	.297	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Bohm3B	.213	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Stott2B	.247	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J.T. RealmutoC	.208	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
G. Rincones Jr.RF	.171	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. CrawfordCF	.260	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	1	4	1	1	1	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. NolaSP	6.0	6	3	3	4	6	97
J. BowlanRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	14
S. JohnsonRP	2.0	1	1	1	1	2	27
Team	9.0	7	4	4	6	8	138

Team

NYM

PHI

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

PHI vs NYM.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

PHI vs NYM.

3 sub-models, blended.