Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LAD at PHI?

The model favors LAD, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 21, 2026

FINAL+1LAD

LAD

64-38

PHI

56-46

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

40,077 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

PHI no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.5% · -0.4

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

44.1%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
45.9%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
46.9%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
46.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.45 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.38

CLV pp

Open price

+115

Close price

+113

Open no-vig

44.5%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LAD at PHI?: The model favors LAD, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+7.4pp

best edge · LAD · DraftKings

LAD

★ best

-106DraftKings

edge +7.4pp · implied 49.1%

PHI

no live price

Book	LAD	PHI	Best edge
DraftKings	-106★	-114	+7.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

PHI vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

137

projections · 107 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tarik SkubalLAD
7.6± 2.7medium
Zack WheelerPHI
7.5± 3.7medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
7.4± 3.3high

Hits

Freddie FreemanLAD
1.7± 0.9high
Luis ArraezPHI
1.4± 1.4high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.3± 1.0high

Total bases

Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.3± 2.4high
Teoscar HernandezLAD
2.2± 2.1high
Freddie FreemanLAD
2.1± 1.1high

RBIs

Andy PagesLAD
0.7± 1.2high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
0.7± 1.1high
Tommy EdmanLAD
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Andrew PainterPHI
3.8± 2.6medium
Aaron NolaPHI
3.1± 1.7high
Kris BubicLAD
2.6± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAD

league avg

PHI

.772

OPS

◀

.720

.706

.340

OBP

◀

.318

.305

5.11

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.39

3.70

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.21

1.15

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.31

9.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

10.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 2 · PHI 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAD	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
PHI	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. OhtaniDH	.287	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
A. PagesCF	.266	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
F. Freeman1B	.284	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. Muncy3B	.263	4	1	1	2	1	0	2
M. BettsSS	.234	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. TuckerRF	.238	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Edman2B	.341	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. CallLF	.248	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. AlfonzoC	.143	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. Rojas2B	.292	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. RushingC	.242	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	2	5	2	1	0	11

Player

.287

.266

.284

.263

.234

.238

.341

.248

.143

.292

.242

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WrobleskiSP	6.1	5	1	1	1	7	89
E. PhillipsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	8
T. ScottRP	1.2	2	0	0	0	2	18
Team	9.0	7	1	1	1	11	115

Player

J. WrobleskiSP

6.1

E. PhillipsRP

1.0

T. ScottRP

1.2

Team

9.0

115

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.246	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. SchwarberDH	.248	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Harper1B	.258	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
A. Bohm3B	.222	4	0	3	1	0	0	0
E. SosaLF	.218	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J.T. RealmutoC	.215	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
B. MarshLF	.290	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. HillCF	.305	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. Stott2B	.251	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. CrawfordCF	.257	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	1	7	1	0	1	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. WheelerSP	7.0	5	2	2	0	9	93
J. AlvaradoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16
J. BowlanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
Team	9.0	5	2	2	0	11	123

Team

LAD

PHI

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

PHI vs LAD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PHI vs LAD.

3 sub-models, blended.