Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYY at PHI?

The model favors NYY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 26, 2026

FINAL+7PHI

NYY

59-46

411

PHI

57-49

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

42,799 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

PHI no-vig %

60.3%

open 59.1% · +1.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.0%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
51.3%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.1%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.7%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.77 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.70

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+134

Close price

+144

Open no-vig

40.9%

Close no-vig

39.2%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYY at PHI?: The model favors NYY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+22.8pp

best edge · NYY · DraftKings

NYY

★ best

+273DraftKings

edge +22.8pp · implied 25.2%

PHI

no live price

Book	NYY	PHI	Best edge
DraftKings	+273★	-391	+22.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

PHI vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 114 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cam SchlittlerNYY
7.8± 2.6high
Zack WheelerPHI
7.5± 3.7medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
7.4± 3.3high

Hits

Luis ArraezPHI
1.4± 1.4high
Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
1.2± 1.1high
Trea TurnerPHI
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
2.5± 2.9high
Bryce HarperPHI
2.0± 1.6high
Trea TurnerPHI
1.9± 2.2high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
0.8± 0.9high
Bryan De La CruzPHI
0.7± 1.4low
Bryce HarperPHI
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Andrew PainterPHI
3.8± 2.6medium
Aaron NolaPHI
3.1± 1.7high
Ryan WeathersNYY
2.5± 2.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

PHI

.724

OPS

◀

.720

.706

.310

OBP

◀

.318

.305

4.59

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.39

3.37

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.21

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.31

9.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

10.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

NYY 4 · PHI 11 (by 7)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYY	0	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	4
PHI	1	1	4	0	0	5	0	0	11

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. Goldschmidt1B	.258	4	0	1	0	0	1	2
B. Rice1B	.273	5	2	2	1	1	0	1
A. Rosario3B	.230	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
J. DominguezRF	.226	5	0	0	1	0	0	1
A. VolpeSS	.257	3	0	2	1	0	1	1
T. GrishamCF	.216	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. SchuemannLF	.220	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. CaballeroSS	.238	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. SanchezC	.256	3	1	2	0	0	0	1
R. McMahon3B	.211	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. JonesCF	.224	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. WellsC	.165	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		36	4	8	3	1	4	13

Player

.258

.273

.230

.226

.257

.216

.220

.238

.256

.211

.224

.165

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. WarrenSP	3.0	6	6	6	2	5	68
T. HillRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	18
C. DovalRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	12
R. YarbroughRP	3.0	5	5	0	2	2	51
Team	8.0	12	11	6	5	10	149

Player

3.0

1.0

1.0

3.0

Team

8.0

149

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.244	5	2	2	1	0	0	1
K. SchwarberDH	.252	2	2	1	1	0	2	0
B. Harper1B	.251	4	1	1	0	0	1	2
B. MarshLF	.287	3	1	1	0	0	2	1
A. Bohm3B	.221	4	2	1	4	0	0	2
B. Stott2B	.252	4	1	3	5	1	0	1
J.T. RealmutoC	.226	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. Rincones Jr.RF	.177	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. CrawfordCF	.255	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
B. De La CruzRF	.571	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		33	11	12	11	1	5	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SanchezSP	6.0	6	3	3	3	6	101
T. MayzaRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	16
C. ShugartRP	2.0	1	0	0	1	5	39
Team	9.0	8	4	4	4	13	156

Team

NYY

PHI

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

PHI vs NYY.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

PHI vs NYY.

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.