Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at NY?

The model favors NY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+12NY

SEA

6-26

8395

18-13

WNBAMon, Aug 3FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasNY -7.5

SEA · top performer

Flau'jae Johnson

G · #4

21.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NY · top performer

Breanna Stewart

F · #30

22.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSEA ↔ NY

Biggest swing: 14pp · 2nd Quarter · 6:11

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
E. MagbegorF · #13	21	4	2-6	0-1	—	-19	5	2
D. MalongaC · #14	28	17	6-11	1-3	4-4	-5	6	1
N. HiedemanG · #2	33	17	6-13	3-7	2-2	-9	1	7
F. JohnsonG · #4	30	25	8-15	2-6	7-9	-9	3	3
J. MelbourneG · #5	24	5	2-4	1-1	—	-10	1	4
Bench
K. SamuelsonF · #33	14	2	1-5	0-3	—	+5	1	1
J. HorstonF · #23	10	0	0-2	—	—	-10	3	1
S. DolsonC · #31	11	5	2-2	1-1	—	-6	0	1
A. FamC · #11	20	4	1-8	1-4	1-2	+6	9	1
Z. CookeG · #7	8	4	1-5	0-3	2-2	-3	0	0
Team		83	29-71	9-29	16-19		29	21
DNP: M. Holmes, T. Thierry

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. StewartF · #30	31	24	8-16	0-4	8-9	+22	8	6
J. JonesC · #35	30	20	7-16	4-10	2-3	-2	7	2
R. AllenG · #9	26	0	0-4	0-3	—	+10	5	1
S. IonescuG · #20	29	18	7-10	4-6	—	+4	2	5
P. AstierG · #18	23	12	4-5	1-1	3-3	+10	0	2
Bench
H. XuC · #21	18	6	2-4	2-3	—	+4	7	0
R. GardnerG · #7	16	6	3-6	0-2	—	+2	3	1
M. JohannesG · #23	12	6	2-3	2-3	—	+8	0	1
M. FauthouxG · #4	14	3	1-4	1-2	0-1	+2	4	5
Team		95	34-68	14-34	13-16		36	23
DNP: R. Carrera, B. Laney-Hamilton

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

Home

29-71

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

34-68

FG %

9-29

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-34

16-19

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

13-16

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jun 26

NY88@

SEA99

Aug 3

SEA83@

NY95today

Aug 5

SEA@

NYupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

182.5

High-scoring · +17.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SEA+28526%

NY-36078%

35· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -7.5↗SpreadBet NY -7.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

182.5

-2.0 since open

How it ended

NY beat SEA 95-83. B. Stewart led with 24 PTS, 8 REB, 6 AST. NY outscored the other side 28-18 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

NY vs SEA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SEAstarters 82% of pts

Starters(5)

68 PTS · 16 REB · 17 AST

GS 58

Bench(5)

15 PTS · 13 REB · 4 AST

GS 7

NYstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

74 PTS · 22 REB · 16 AST

GS 59

Bench(4)

21 PTS · 14 REB · 7 AST

GS 20

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SEA2nd Quarter · 54.4 · 41-43

+13pp→ 18% WP

Dominique Malonga · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Katie Lou Samuelson assists)

NY2nd Quarter · 6:11 · 23-36

+14pp→ 96% WP

Jonquel Jones · makes 1-foot layup (Breanna Stewart assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SEA	18	25	24	16	83
NY	28	22	29	16	95

Period scoring

SEA won 1 · NY won 2

Hiedeman 8

Ionescu 11

Hiedeman 7

Melbourne 11

Johnson 10

Astier 21

Melbourne 5

Jones 5

SEA

Shooting comparison

SEA

41%

29-71

50%

34-68

31%

9-29

3PT

41%

14-34

84%

16-19

81%

13-16

Play-by-play · 382 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SEA 83·NY 95
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SEA 83·NY 95
Q4·3.3
shot clock turnover
SEA 83·NY 95
Q4·27.0
Breanna Stewart defensive rebound
SEA 83·NY 95
Q4·29.7
Flau'jae Johnson misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
SEA 83·NY 95
Q4·45.3
Jonquel Jones makes 22-foot three point jumper (Breanna Stewart assists)
·
SEA 83·NY 95
Q4·1:06
Flau'jae Johnson makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot
SEA 83·NY 92
Q4·1:08
Flau'jae Johnson defensive rebound
SEA 80·NY 92
Q4·1:10
Jonquel Jones misses two point shot
SEA 80·NY 92
Q4·1:11
Jonquel Jones offensive rebound
SEA 80·NY 92
Q4·1:13
Breanna Stewart misses driving layup
SEA 80·NY 92
Q4·1:32
Breanna Stewart defensive rebound
SEA 80·NY 92
Q4·1:35
Awa Fam misses 23-foot three point jumper
SEA 80·NY 92
Q4·1:43
Awa Fam offensive rebound
SEA 80·NY 92
Q4·1:45
Dominique Malonga misses 28-foot three point jumper
SEA 80·NY 92
Q4·1:51
Storm offensive team rebound
SEA 80·NY 92
Q4·1:51
Jonquel Jones blocks Natisha Hiedeman 's 4-foot driving layup
·
SEA 80·NY 92
Q4·2:01
Breanna Stewart makes free throw 2 of 2
SEA 80·NY 92
Q4·2:01
Liberty offensive team rebound
SEA 80·NY 91
Q4·2:01
Breanna Stewart misses free throw 1 of 2
SEA 80·NY 91
Q4·2:01
Dominique Malonga shooting foul
SEA 80·NY 91
Q4·2:20
Flau'jae Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
SEA 80·NY 91
Q4·2:20
Flau'jae Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2
SEA 79·NY 91
Q4·2:20
Breanna Stewart shooting foul
SEA 78·NY 91
Q4·2:23
Sabrina Ionescu lost ball turnover (Flau'jae Johnson steals)
·
SEA 78·NY 91
Q4·2:38
Awa Fam out of bounds bad pass turnover
SEA 78·NY 91
Q4·3:00
Jonquel Jones traveling turnover
SEA 78·NY 91
Q4·3:07
Liberty defensive team rebound
SEA 78·NY 91
Q4·3:09
Natisha Hiedeman misses 25-foot three point jumper
SEA 78·NY 91
Q4·3:16
Storm Full timeout
SEA 78·NY 91

Betting line

NY -7.5·O/U 182.5·SEA +285/NY -360

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

ew York Liberty held off Seattle Storm, 95–83.

NY -7.5 cashed (won by 12). Total stayed UNDER 182.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

SEA

eFG%

shooting

47.2%

60.3%

TOV%

ball control

8.1%

13.8%

OREB%

offensive glass

20.6%

29.0%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

22.5%

19.1%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Jonquel JonesNY · C
DRB%.27493
Marine JohannesNY · G
eFG%.62993
Pauline AstierNY · G
TS%.65692
Breanna StewartNY · F
USG%.28091
Stefanie DolsonSEA · C
TS%.64588

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

80.6%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
78.8%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
79.3%
P(NY win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
83.8%
P(NY win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.24 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.59

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-380

Close price

-345

Open no-vig

76.0%

Close no-vig

74.4%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at NY?: The model favors NY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.9pp

best edge · SEA · DraftKings

SEA

★ best

+400DraftKings

edge +2.9pp · implied 18.8%

no live price

Book	SEA	NY	Best edge
DraftKings	+400★	-620	+2.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

NY vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 85 high confidence

Points

Breanna StewartNY
21.2± 7.8high
Sabrina IonescuNY
19.2± 6.4high
Natisha HiedemanSEA
17.4± 8.5high

Rebounds

Dominique MalongaSEA
10.0± 2.9high
Breanna StewartNY
9.0± 2.8high
Jonquel JonesNY
8.9± 2.6high

Assists

Sabrina IonescuNY
5.0± 2.2high
Natisha HiedemanSEA
4.8± 2.5high
Jade MelbourneSEA
4.0± 1.1high

Blocks

Breanna StewartNY
1.7± 0.9high
Dominique MalongaSEA
1.3± 1.2high
Awa FamSEA
1.1± 0.8high

Steals

Flau'jae JohnsonSEA
1.8± 1.2high
Breanna StewartNY
1.2± 1.5high
Leonie FiebichNY
1.2± 1.1medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

On the call · WNBA

3 officials

Referee

Randy Richardson

Referee

Gerda Gatling

Referee

Josh Reed

Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.

Team pages

Seattle StormNew York Liberty

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop