Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at NYM?

The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 28, 2026

FINAL+1PHI

PHI

47-37

NYM

35-49

Citi Field · Queens, New York

38,770 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYM spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

NYM no-vig %

42.8%

open 42.8%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

31.0%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
39.0%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
37.3%
P(NYM win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
39.2%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.85 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-149

Close price

-149

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at NYM?: The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+13.0pp

best edge · PHI · DraftKings

PHI

★ best

-144DraftKings

edge +13.0pp · implied 55.3%

NYM

no live price

Book	PHI	NYM	Best edge
DraftKings	-144★	+110	+13.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

NYM vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 104 high confidence

Strikeouts

Zack WheelerPHI
7.9± 3.2medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
7.4± 3.3high
Nolan McLeanNYM
7.0± 1.7high

Hits

Bo BichetteNYM
1.1± 1.1high
Carson BengeNYM
1.1± 0.9high
Bryan De La CruzPHI
1.1± 0.9low

Total bases

Francisco LindorNYM
1.9± 3.5high
Tyrone TaylorNYM
1.9± 2.3high
Trea TurnerPHI
1.9± 2.2high

RBIs

Alec BohmPHI
0.9± 1.4high
Tyrone TaylorNYM
0.8± 1.3high
Francisco LindorNYM
0.7± 1.9high

Earned runs

Andrew PainterPHI
3.8± 2.6medium
Aaron NolaPHI
3.3± 1.8high
Freddy PeraltaNYM
3.2± 3.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

NYM

.702

OPS

◀

.720

.685

.303

OBP

.318

.304

4.34

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.08

4.24

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.12

1.31

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.29

9.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PHI 5 · NYM 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	0	0	5
NYM	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.232	5	1	1	0	0	0	0
K. SchwarberDH	.256	5	2	2	2	1	0	2
B. Harper1B	.276	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
A. Bohm3B	.225	3	1	2	1	0	1	0
B. MarshLF	.321	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
J.T. RealmutoC	.205	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
B. Stott2B	.236	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
D. HillRF	.313	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. CrawfordCF	.243	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		36	5	10	5	1	1	9

Player

.232

.256

.276

.225

.321

.205

.236

.313

.243

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. LuzardoSP	5.0	4	1	1	3	6	96
C. ShugartRP	0.1	3	3	3	1	1	20
K. BackhusRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	8
J. AlvaradoRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	24
O. KerkeringRP	1.0	0	0	0	3	1	27
J. DuranRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	20
Team	9.0	9	4	4	8	10	195

Player

5.0

0.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

195

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BengeRF	.257	5	0	1	2	0	0	1
J. SotoLF	.300	2	0	1	0	0	3	0
B. Bichette3B	.254	4	0	1	0	0	1	2
E. Wagaman1B	.192	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. AlvarezC	.249	5	1	1	0	0	0	3
M. Vientos1B	.212	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. TaylorCF	.202	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
B. Baty3B	.210	2	1	0	0	0	3	0
L. TorrensC	.214	4	0	1	0	0	1	0
R. MauricioSS	.190	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Young1B	.233	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A.J. EwingCF	.279	3	1	2	2	1	0	0
Team		36	4	9	4	1	8	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. PerezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	9
T. MyersRP	3.0	6	3	3	0	3	59
K. SengaSP	5.0	4	2	2	1	4	80
Team	9.0	10	5	5	1	9	148

Team

PHI

NYM

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

NYM vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

NYM vs PHI.

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.