Park factor
96 total idx
Citi Field run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
PHI
PHI
40-34
PregameSun, 1:40 PM EDT
NYM
NYM
33-41
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketCiti Field · Queens, New York
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Home starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.
Head to head
SeriesSeries starts 6/18
TypeRegular Season Series
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
47.9%
ensemble · PHI favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NYM vs PHI.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 92 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Cristopher SanchezPHI7.7± 3.4medium
- Jesus LuzardoPHI6.4± 2.8medium
- Zack WheelerPHI6.2± 2.6low
Hits
- Bo BichetteNYM1.3± 1.0high
- Brandon MarshPHI1.1± 1.1high
- Carson BengeNYM1.0± 1.5high
Total bases
- Bo BichetteNYM2.3± 2.4high
- Brandon MarshPHI2.1± 2.3high
- Juan SotoNYM1.9± 2.2high
RBIs
- Alec BohmPHI0.9± 1.2high
- Bo BichetteNYM0.8± 1.9high
- Bryson StottPHI0.7± 0.8high
Earned runs
- Kodai SengaNYM4.0± 2.8low
- Andrew PainterPHI3.7± 2.9low
- Aaron NolaPHI3.5± 2.6low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
PHI
league avg
NYM
.688
OPS
◀
.717
.666
.298
OBP
.319
.297
4.08
Runs / G
◀
4.50
3.97
4.09
Team ERA
4.17
▶3.93
1.30
WHIP
1.31
▶1.27
9.5
K / 9
◀
8.5
9.1
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant