Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Jul 5, 2026

PHI

40-34

PregameSun, 3:00 PM EDT

30-45

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Home starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.

Head to head

SeriesSeries starts 7/4

TypeRegular Season Series

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.3%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

KC vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.7± 3.4medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.4± 2.8medium
Zack WheelerPHI
6.2± 2.6low

Hits

Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.2± 1.2high
Kameron MisnerKC
1.2± 1.1low
Jac CaglianoneKC
1.1± 1.4high

Total bases

Brandon MarshPHI
2.1± 2.3high
Jac CaglianoneKC
1.8± 2.9high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

Alec BohmPHI
0.9± 1.2high
Carter JensenKC
0.8± 1.1high
Maikel GarciaKC
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Aaron NolaPHI
3.5± 2.6low
Michael WachaKC
2.8± 2.0medium
Noah CameronKC
2.5± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

.685

OPS

.718

▶

.701

.297

OBP

.319

▶

.318

4.11

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.01

4.09

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.48

1.30

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.37

9.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Philadelphia Phillies at Kansas City Royals

The matchup, end-to-end.

3 sub-models, blended.

KC vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league