Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 5, 2026

FINAL+3KC

PHI

50-40

36-54

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri

14,891 attended

Line movement

39 snapshots

KC spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 9.5 · +0.5

KC no-vig %

44.9%

open 44.9%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.4%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
44.7%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
44.8%
P(KC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
44.4%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.17 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

KC vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 98 high confidence

Strikeouts

Zack WheelerPHI
7.9± 3.2medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
7.4± 3.3high
Cristopher SanchezPHI
6.3± 3.1high

Hits

Bryan De La CruzPHI
1.1± 0.9low
Trea TurnerPHI
1.1± 1.0high
Alec BohmPHI
1.0± 1.0high

Total bases

John RaveKC
2.0± 3.3low
Salvador PerezKC
1.9± 1.8high
Trea TurnerPHI
1.9± 2.2high

RBIs

Luke MaileKC
1.0± 1.9low
Alec BohmPHI
0.9± 1.4high
Bryson StottPHI
0.6± 1.6high

Earned runs

Andrew PainterPHI
3.8± 2.6medium
Aaron NolaPHI
3.3± 1.8high
Noah CameronKC
3.0± 2.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

.702

OPS

.720

▶

.713

.303

OBP

.318

▶

.314

4.34

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.16

4.24

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.84

1.31

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.43

9.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

PHI 2 · KC 5 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	2
KC	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.236	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. SchwarberDH	.254	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. Harper1B	.270	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
B. MarshLF	.309	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. Bohm3B	.224	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. Stott2B	.247	4	2	2	0	0	0	0
G. Rincones Jr.RF	.196	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. CrawfordCF	.255	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
G. StubbsC	.148	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
Team		30	2	5	2	0	2	7

Player

.236

.254

.270

.309

.224

.247

.196

.255

.148

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. NolaSP	7.0	7	3	3	0	7	98
S. JohnsonRP	0.1	0	2	2	2	0	14
K. BackhusRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	12
Team	8.0	8	5	5	2	8	124

Player

A. NolaSP

7.0

S. JohnsonRP

0.1

K. BackhusRP

0.2

Team

8.0

124

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. JensenC	.247	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
B. Witt Jr.SS	.290	3	2	2	0	0	1	0
J. CaglianoneRF	.258	3	0	0	1	0	0	0
L. ThomasCF	.216	3	2	1	1	0	1	0
M. Massey2B	.254	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
S. PerezDH	.202	4	0	1	2	0	0	1
J. Rojas3B	.200	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. MisnerCF	.225	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
I. CollinsLF	.235	3	1	2	0	0	0	1
N. Loftin3B	.224	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	5	8	5	0	2	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. AvilaSP	5.0	3	1	1	1	4	69
M. StrahmRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	22
J. SchreiberRP	1.0	1	1	0	0	1	14
D. Lynch IVRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
A. LangeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	11
Team	9.0	5	2	1	2	7	128

Team

PHI

—

3 sub-models, blended.

KC vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

KC vs PHI.

3 sub-models, blended.