Recent form
6-4
MIL +0.5 vs MIN -0.4 margin
MIL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers
MIN
MIN
56-59
PregameFri, 7:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
MIL
MIL
71-43
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketAmerican Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Connor Prielipp
SP · #61
3-5
W-L
4.75
ERA
1.31
WHIP
81
K
77.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@SEA-5.1 IP3 ER5 K
vsATHW(3-5)5.2 IP1 ER5 K
vsCLE-5.0 IP3 ER6 K
Home starter
S
Shane Drohan
SP · #55
6-4
W-L
3.48
ERA
1.17
WHIP
89
K
88.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@LAAW(6-4)6.0 IP2 ER7 K
vsCOLL(5-4)6.0 IP5 ER6 K
vsMIAW(5-3)6.0 IP3 ER9 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob43% / 57%
LeanHome · 7pp
ConfidenceLean
Head to head
SeriesMIL leads series 2-1
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
MIL vs MIN.
MIL is 6-4 recently; MIN is 5-5.
56.8%
model · MIL win prob
Recent form
- MIL6–4+0.5
- MIN5–5-0.4
Situational
- MIL2d rest
- MIN2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. MIL has 0 straight road games; MIN has 5.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
Players to watch
- Jacob MisiorowskiMIL9.4strikeouts · ±2.7
Jacob Misiorowski · 9.4 K · last-10 9.5 vs season 9.3.
- Taj BradleyMIN6.6strikeouts · ±2.9
Taj Bradley · 6.6 K · last-10 6.8 vs season 6.4.
- Joe RyanMIN5.7strikeouts · ±2.6
Joe Ryan · 5.7 K · last-10 5.6 vs season 5.8.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
57.5%
ensemble · MIL favored
Elo Static
55.4%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.9%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.2%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.61 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
96% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIL vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
132
projections · 112 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Jacob MisiorowskiMIL9.4± 2.7high
- Taj BradleyMIN6.6± 2.9high
- Logan HendersonMIL6.2± 2.8low
Hits
- Jackson ChourioMIL1.2± 0.9high
- Brice TurangMIL1.1± 0.9high
- Cooper PrattMIL1.1± 0.9high
Total bases
- Jake BauersMIL2.0± 1.7high
- Royce LewisMIN2.0± 1.8high
- Jackson ChourioMIL1.9± 1.9high
RBIs
- Luis LaraMIL0.8± 1.5medium
- Brice TurangMIL0.7± 0.9high
- Cooper PrattMIL0.6± 1.0high
Earned runs
- Dean KremerMIN3.7± 3.4low
- Connor PrielippMIN3.1± 1.7medium
- Bailey OberMIN2.8± 2.5medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
MIN
league avg
MIL
.721
OPS
.719
▶.733
.316
OBP
.318
▶.336
4.65
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.96
4.63
Team ERA
4.18
▶3.45
1.38
WHIP
1.30
▶1.16
8.4
K / 9
8.5
▶9.9
The One modelLean
Fri, Aug 7MIN
Twins
78-65
vs56.7%MIL
MIL★
Brewers
75-57
MIN 43.3%win prob56.7% MIL
MIL 1531 · MIN 1517Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- MetsPirates8/7 - 6:40 PM EDT
- Blue JaysPhillies8/7 - 6:40 PM EDT
- RedsNationals8/7 - 6:45 PM EDT
- BravesYankees8/7 - 7:05 PM EDT
- AngelsMarlins8/7 - 7:10 PM EDT
- AthleticsRed Sox8/7 - 7:10 PM EDT
- GuardiansWhite Sox8/7 - 7:40 PM EDT
- CubsRoyals8/7 - 8:10 PM EDT
- OriolesRangers8/7 - 8:15 PM EDT
- RockiesCardinals8/7 - 8:15 PM EDT
- AstrosPadres8/7 - 9:40 PM EDT
- DodgersDiamondbacks8/7 - 9:40 PM EDT
- RaysMariners8/7 - 9:45 PM EDT
- TigersGiants8/7 - 10:15 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
