Recent form
6-4
MIL -0.1 vs MIN -0.5 margin
MIL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers
MIN
MIN
57-59
PregameFri, 7:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
MIL
MIL
72-43
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketAmerican Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Line movement
200 snapshots
MIL spread
-1.5
open -1.5
Total
O/U 8.0
open O/U 8.0
MIL no-vig %
61.6%
open 62.2% · -0.6
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Zebby Matthews
SP · #52
4-8
W-L
5.22
ERA
1.31
WHIP
69
K
81.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@SEA-5.0 IP3 ER10 K
vsATHL(4-8)6.0 IP2 ER1 K
@CHCL(4-7)3.0 IP8 ER4 K
Home starter
S
Shane Drohan
SP · #55
6-4
W-L
3.48
ERA
1.17
WHIP
89
K
88.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@LAAW(6-4)6.0 IP2 ER7 K
vsCOLL(5-4)6.0 IP5 ER6 K
vsMIAW(5-3)6.0 IP3 ER9 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 7.5
Money+144 / -175
Model edge
Win prob44% / 56%
LeanHome · 6pp
ConfidenceLean
Head to head
SeriesMIL leads series 2-1
TypeRegular Season Series
Place a bet
Take MIL on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Scouting report · pre-game
MIL vs MIN.
MIL enters on a 3-game win streak; MIN is 5-5 over its last 10.
56.2%
model · MIL win prob
Recent form
- MIL6–4-0.1
- MIN5–5-0.5
Situational
- MIL1d restB2B
- MIN1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. MIL has 0 straight road games; MIN has 6.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
Players to watch
- Jacob MisiorowskiMIL9.4strikeouts · ±2.7
Jacob Misiorowski · 9.4 K · last-10 9.5 vs season 9.3.
- Taj BradleyMIN6.6strikeouts · ±2.9
Taj Bradley · 6.6 K · last-10 6.8 vs season 6.4.
- Joe RyanMIN5.7strikeouts · ±2.6
Joe Ryan · 5.7 K · last-10 5.6 vs season 5.8.
Line move
open -186→-181toward MIN
The market has moved 0.6pp toward the away side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
57.2%
ensemble · MIL favored
Elo Static
55.3%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.4%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.2%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.86 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
94% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIL vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
132
projections · 115 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Jacob MisiorowskiMIL9.4± 2.7high
- Taj BradleyMIN6.6± 2.9high
- Kyle HarrisonMIL6.2± 4.5medium
Hits
- Jackson ChourioMIL1.2± 1.0high
- Royce LewisMIN1.2± 1.0high
- Jake BauersMIL1.1± 0.7high
Total bases
- Royce LewisMIN2.1± 1.6high
- Jake BauersMIL2.0± 1.7high
- Jackson ChourioMIL1.9± 1.9high
RBIs
- Luis LaraMIL0.8± 1.3high
- Brice TurangMIL0.7± 0.9high
- Jake BauersMIL0.6± 1.0high
Earned runs
- Dean KremerMIN3.4± 3.4low
- Connor PrielippMIN3.1± 1.7medium
- Bailey OberMIN2.8± 2.5medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
MIN
league avg
MIL
.722
OPS
.720
▶.734
.317
OBP
.318
▶.336
4.65
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.97
4.62
Team ERA
4.18
▶3.44
1.38
WHIP
1.30
▶1.16
8.3
K / 9
8.5
▶9.9
The One modelLean
Fri, Aug 7MIN
Twins
79-65
vs56.3%MIL
MIL★
Brewers
76-57
MIN 43.7%win prob56.3% MIL
MIL 1534 · MIN 1521Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- MetsPirates8/7 - 6:40 PM EDT
- Blue JaysPhillies8/7 - 6:40 PM EDT
- RedsNationals8/7 - 6:45 PM EDT
- BravesYankees8/7 - 7:05 PM EDT
- AngelsMarlins8/7 - 7:10 PM EDT
- AthleticsRed Sox8/7 - 7:10 PM EDT
- GuardiansWhite Sox8/7 - 7:40 PM EDT
- CubsRoyals8/7 - 8:10 PM EDT
- OriolesRangers8/7 - 8:15 PM EDT
- RockiesCardinals8/7 - 8:15 PM EDT
- AstrosPadres8/7 - 9:40 PM EDT
- DodgersDiamondbacks8/7 - 9:40 PM EDT
- RaysMariners8/7 - 9:45 PM EDT
- TigersGiants8/7 - 10:15 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
