Recent form
8-2
ATL +0.7 vs MIA +0.4 margin
ATL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves
MIA
MIA
58-57
PregameThu, 7:15 PM EDTMLB.TV
ATL
ATL
69-45
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketTruist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
Line movement
200 snapshots
ATL spread
-1.5
open PK · -1.5
Total
O/U 9.0
open O/U 8.5 · +0.5
ATL no-vig %
59.1%
open 59.1%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Janson Junk
SP · #26
5-6
W-L
4.58
ERA
1.33
WHIP
61
K
78.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@NYMW(5-6)5.0 IP0 ER4 K
vsSD-4.2 IP1 ER6 K
@HOUL(4-6)4.0 IP6 ER3 K
Home starter
Martin Perez
SP · #33
7-6
W-L
3.24
ERA
1.17
WHIP
75
K
97.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsWSHW(7-6)7.0 IP0 ER6 K
@NYM-5.0 IP3 ER4 K
vsSD-4.0 IP0 ER3 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 9
Money+131 / -140
Model edge
Win prob40% / 61%
LeanHome · 11pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesATL leads series 2-0
TypeCurrent Series
Place a bet
Take ATL on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Scouting report · pre-game
ATL vs MIA.
ATL enters on a 6-game win streak; MIA is 6-4 over its last 10.
60.5%
model · ATL win prob
Recent form
- ATL8–2+0.7
- MIA6–4+0.4
Situational
- ATL1d restB2B
- MIA1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. ATL has 0 straight road games; MIA has 6.
Model angle
+3.1ppon ATL
ATL's edge is mostly venue split plus travel burden. Model confidence is the main caution flag. Weather and park are neutral for the total environment.
- ▲Venue split+1.3pp
- ▲Travel burden+1.0pp
- ▲Recent form+0.7pp
Players to watch
- Chris SaleATL7.1strikeouts · ±2.4
Chris Sale · 7.1 K · last-10 7.1 vs season 7.2.
- Eury PerezMIA6.2strikeouts · ±2.9
Eury Perez · 6.2 K · last-10 6.3 vs season 6.1.
- Sandy AlcantaraMIA5.4strikeouts · ±1.9
Sandy Alcantara · 5.4 K · last-10 5.6 vs season 5.
Head-to-head · 2-0 · last 2
ATL is 2-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-04MIA @ ATL2–4
- 2026-08-05MIA @ ATL1–4
Line move
open -162→-162flat
The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
61.0%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
59.5%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
61.1%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.7%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.71 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
95% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs MIA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
133
projections · 115 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Chris SaleATL7.1± 2.4high
- Eury PerezMIA6.2± 2.9high
- Sandy AlcantaraMIA5.4± 1.9high
Hits
- Otto LopezMIA1.1± 1.1high
- Drake BaldwinATL1.0± 0.9high
- Matt OlsonATL1.0± 0.8high
Total bases
- Matt OlsonATL2.3± 2.2high
- Kyle StowersMIA2.1± 2.4high
- Ozzie AlbiesATL1.6± 1.7high
RBIs
- Dominic SmithATL0.7± 1.1high
- Owen CaissieMIA0.7± 1.1high
- Austin RileyATL0.6± 0.8high
Earned runs
- Tyler MahleATL3.0± 2.4medium
- Bryce ElderATL2.9± 2.4high
- Janson JunkMIA2.8± 3.5medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
MIA
league avg
ATL
.728
OPS
.719
.732
.324
OBP
◀
.318
.315
4.34
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.89
4.00
Team ERA
4.18
▶3.63
1.24
WHIP
1.30
1.24
8.6
K / 9
8.5
8.6
The One modelEdge
Thu, Aug 6MIA
Marlins
69-67
vs60.5%ATL
ATL★
Braves
83-56
MIA 39.5%win prob60.5% ATL
ATL 1547 · MIA 1504Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- AngelsOrioles8/6 - 12:35 PM EDT
- AthleticsReds8/6 - 12:40 PM EDT
- MetsGuardians8/6 - 1:10 PM EDT
- PiratesBrewers8/6 - 2:10 PM EDT
- Blue JaysCubs8/6 - 2:20 PM EDT
- TigersMariners8/6 - 4:10 PM EDT
- NationalsPhillies8/6 - 6:05 PM EDT
- White SoxRed Sox8/6 - 7:10 PM EDT
- TwinsRoyals8/6 - 7:30 PM EDT
- PadresDiamondbacks8/6 - 9:40 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
