Recent form
7-3
ATL +0.3 vs MIA +0.2 margin
ATL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves
MIA
MIA
58-56
PregameThu, 7:15 PM EDTMLB.TV
ATL
ATL
68-45
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketTruist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Janson Junk
SP · #26
5-6
W-L
4.58
ERA
1.33
WHIP
61
K
78.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@NYMW(5-6)5.0 IP0 ER4 K
vsSD-4.2 IP1 ER6 K
@HOUL(4-6)4.0 IP6 ER3 K
Home starter
Martin Perez
SP · #33
7-6
W-L
3.24
ERA
1.17
WHIP
75
K
97.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsWSHW(7-6)7.0 IP0 ER6 K
@NYM-5.0 IP3 ER4 K
vsSD-4.0 IP0 ER3 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob41% / 59%
LeanHome · 9pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesATL leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
ATL vs MIA.
ATL enters on a 5-game win streak; MIA is 6-4 over its last 10.
59.1%
model · ATL win prob
Recent form
- ATL7–3+0.3
- MIA6–4+0.2
Situational
- ATL2d rest
- MIA2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. ATL has 0 straight road games; MIA has 5.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Chris SaleATL7.1strikeouts · ±2.4
Chris Sale · 7.1 K · last-10 7.1 vs season 7.2.
- Sandy AlcantaraMIA5.4strikeouts · ±1.9
Sandy Alcantara · 5.4 K · last-10 5.6 vs season 5.
- Bryce ElderATL4.4strikeouts · ±2.1
Bryce Elder · 4.4 K · last-10 4.1 vs season 4.8.
Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1
ATL is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-04MIA @ ATL2–4
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
59.5%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
58.5%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
60.1%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.3%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.80 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
95% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs MIA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
133
projections · 113 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Chris SaleATL7.1± 2.4high
- Eury PerezMIA5.9± 3.2medium
- Sandy AlcantaraMIA5.4± 1.9high
Hits
- Otto LopezMIA1.1± 1.1high
- Drake BaldwinATL1.0± 0.9high
- Matt OlsonATL1.0± 0.8high
Total bases
- Matt OlsonATL2.3± 2.2high
- Kyle StowersMIA2.2± 2.3high
- Ozzie AlbiesATL1.8± 1.8high
RBIs
- Dominic SmithATL0.7± 1.1high
- Owen CaissieMIA0.7± 1.1high
- Austin RileyATL0.6± 0.8high
Earned runs
- Bryce ElderATL3.1± 2.3high
- Tyler MahleATL3.0± 2.4medium
- Janson JunkMIA2.8± 3.5medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
MIA
league avg
ATL
.731
OPS
.720
.733
.325
OBP
◀
.318
.315
4.37
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.89
3.99
Team ERA
4.18
▶3.66
1.24
WHIP
1.30
1.24
8.5
K / 9
8.5
▶8.7
The One modelEdge
Thu, Aug 6MIA
Marlins
69-66
vs59.1%ATL
ATL★
Braves
82-56
MIA 40.9%win prob59.1% ATL
ATL 1544 · MIA 1508Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- AngelsOrioles8/6 - 12:35 PM EDT
- AthleticsReds8/6 - 12:40 PM EDT
- MetsGuardians8/6 - 1:10 PM EDT
- PiratesBrewers8/6 - 2:10 PM EDT
- Blue JaysCubs8/6 - 2:20 PM EDT
- TigersMariners8/6 - 4:10 PM EDT
- NationalsPhillies8/6 - 6:05 PM EDT
- White SoxRed Sox8/6 - 7:10 PM EDT
- TwinsRoyals8/6 - 7:30 PM EDT
- PadresDiamondbacks8/6 - 9:40 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
