Recent form
3-7
POR -2.3 vs TOR -14.8 margin
POR brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Toronto Tempo at Portland Fire
TOR
TOR
10-20
PregameThu, 10:00 PM EDTFox 12 Plus, WNBA League Pass, TSN
POR
POR
11-19
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
3 signals · model + marketPreview · WNBA
oronto Tempo visit Portland Fire Thursday at 8/6 - 10:00 PM EDT.
Vegas opened POR as a 2.5-point favorite with the total at 187.5. POR's moneyline implies a 60% break-even, TOR the inverse. POR comes in with 2 extra days of rest.
For bettors: the POR side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 187.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Updated 0s ago
Team stats
TOR
Away
Stat
POR
Home
45
FG %
45
Season series
POR leads series 1-0
May 23POR99@TOR80
POR99@TOR80Aug 7TOR@PORtoday
TOR@PORtodayAug 22POR@TORupcoming
POR@TORupcomingModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
POR -2.5
Between — and 5
1.0pt· 6.3h
Total
187.5
High-scoring · +22.5 vs avg
1.0pt· 6.3h
Moneyline
TOR+12445%POR-14860%10· 6.3h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
2.5
+1.0 since open
Total
187.5
+2.0 since open
Scouting report
TOR @ POR
StorylineTOR dropped 7 straight · POR lost 5 in a row.
Rest going in
POR +2 days
TORStandard
2 days
last game Aug 4
PORLong rest
4 days
last game Aug 2
Model edge vs market
Lean onlySpread
Market
POR -2.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Total
Market
187.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Moneyline
Market
POR -148
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
TORmetricPOR
10-20
Record
11-19
#6
Conf rank
#7
-6.1
Pt diff
-5.9
L7
Streak
L5
1-9
Last 10
3-7
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Betting line
POR -2.5·O/U 187.5·TOR +124/POR -148
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Scouting report · pre-game
POR vs TOR.
POR has dropped 5 straight; TOR is 1-9 over its last 10.
65.1%
model · POR win prob
Recent form
- POR3–7-2.3
- TOR1–9-14.8
Situational
- POR4d rest
- TOR2d rest
- +2.0d differential
POR has 2 more rest days. POR has 0 straight road games; TOR has 2.
Model angle
+7.9ppon POR
POR's edge is mostly model confidence plus line steam. The signals lean the same way.
- ▲Model confidence+3.0pp
- ▲Line steam+1.6pp
- ▲Rest advantage+1.2pp
Players to watch
- Marina MabreyTOR20.2points · ±8.9
Marina Mabrey · 20.2 pts · last-10 19.9 vs season 20.7.
- Carla LeitePOR15.9points · ±4.1
Carla Leite · 15.9 pts · last-10 16.3 vs season 15.3.
- Bridget CarletonPOR15.1points · ±6.6
Bridget Carleton · 15.1 pts · last-10 15.6 vs season 14.3.
Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1
POR is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-05-23POR @ TOR99–80
Line move
open -125→-135toward POR
The market has moved 1.9pp toward the home side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
63.8%
ensemble · POR favored
Elo Static
67.6%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
69.3%
P(POR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
62.7%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
2.79 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
81% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Why we like POR.
POR's edge is mostly model confidence plus line steam. The signals lean the same way.
+7.9
pp edge · POR
+3.96
CLV pp · steam
1.4u · medium
on POR
61.9%
±9.1pp band
1.38u medium — +2.2pp edge, quarter Kelly.
Edge
+4.7pp
-3.2pp post-cal
Kelly
5.5%
1.4% sized
Decimal
1.68
+2.2pp vs price
Contributor breakdown · sums to 7.9pp · POR over TOR
- ▲+3.0ppModel confidence90% conf
POR clears the model's lock threshold.
- ▲+1.6ppLine steam71% conf
The market moved 1.9pp toward POR since open.
- ▲+1.2ppRest advantage65% conf
POR has 4 days rest; TOR has 2.
- ▲+1.0ppVenue split64% conf
POR's venue form is 10.7pp stronger in the recent sample.
- ▲+1.0ppTravel burden58% conf
TOR is carrying the heavier road load into this matchup.
Open price
-125
Close price
-148
Open no-vig
53.2%
Close no-vig
57.2%
Market steamed in our direction
How we read this game
- Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at POR?
- The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
- When is the pick logged, and can it change?
- Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+7.9pp
best edge · POR · DraftKings
TOR
no live price
POR
★ best-148DraftKings
edge +7.9pp · implied 57.2%
| Book | TOR | POR | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +124 | -148★ | +7.9 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player projections
POR vs TOR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 90 high confidence
Points
- Marina MabreyTOR20.2± 8.9high
- Brittney SykesTOR18.1± 10.6medium
- Carla LeitePOR15.9± 4.1high
Rebounds
- Aneesah MorrowTOR7.6± 4.7high
- Isabelle HarrisonTOR5.7± 3.8medium
- Emily EngstlerPOR5.5± 3.4high
Assists
- Carla LeitePOR6.7± 3.1high
- Julie AllemandTOR6.0± 2.2high
- Marina MabreyTOR3.8± 1.7high
Blocks
- Emily EngstlerPOR1.1± 0.7high
- Megan DiLeoPOR0.7± 0.6high
- Nyara SaballyTOR0.6± 0.7high
Steals
- Emily EngstlerPOR1.8± 0.9high
- Bridget CarletonPOR1.5± 1.1high
- Julie AllemandTOR1.5± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Team pages
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