Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHX at CON?

The model favors PHX, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

PHX

12-20

PregameFri, 7:30 PM EDTION

CON

7-23

ATS/PHX -6.5O/U/174.5ML/PHX-238

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

3 signals · model + market

Recent form

4-6

PHX -6.4 vs CON -8.2 margin

PHX brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Rest edge

+3.0 days

CON 5 rest vs PHX 2

CON has fresher legs, a real late-game edge on the second night.

Model rank

+159.3

CON Elo vs PHX Elo

PHX owns the cleaner matchup rating, forcing CON uphill early today again.

WNBAFri, Aug 78/7 - 7:30 PM EDTSeriestied 1-1VegasPHX -6.5

Preview · WNBA

hoenix Mercury visit Connecticut Sun Friday at 8/7 - 7:30 PM EDT. PHX is 4-3 in their last 7.

Vegas opened PHX as a 6.5-point favorite with the total at 174.5. CON's moneyline implies a 34% break-even, PHX the inverse. CON comes in with 3 extra days of rest.

For bettors: the PHX side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 174.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Line just movedSpread ↗ 1.0pt over 6.5h55m ago

Updated 0s ago

Team stats

PHX

Away

Stat

CON

Home

FG %

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jul 18

CON96@

PHX83

Jul 19

CON63@

PHX72

Aug 7

PHX@

CONtoday

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHX -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

1.0pt· 6.5h

Total

174.5

High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg

2.0pt· 6.5h

Moneyline

PHX-23870%

CON+19534%

10· 6.5h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHX -6.5↗SpreadBet PHX -6.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

+1.0 since open

Total

174.5

+1.0 since open

Scouting report

PHX @ CON

8/7 - 7:30 PM EDT

StorylineCON lost 5 in a row.

Rest going in

CON +3 days

PHXStandard

1 day

last game Aug 5

CONLong rest

4 days

last game Aug 2

Model edge vs market

Lean only

Spread

Market

PHX -6.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Total

Market

174.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

PHX -238

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

PHXmetricCON

12-20

Record

7-23

Conf rank

-3.4

Pt diff

-7.5

Streak

4-6

Last 10

3-7

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Betting line

PHX -6.5·O/U 174.5·PHX -238/CON +195

DraftKings · via ESPN

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Scouting report · pre-game

CON vs PHX.

CON has dropped 5 straight; PHX is 4-6 over its last 10.

25.7%

model · CON win prob

Recent form

CON3–7-8.2
PHX4–6-6.4

Situational

CON5d rest
PHX2d rest
+3.0d differential

CON has 3 more rest days. CON has 6 straight road games; PHX has 2.

Model angle

+6.8ppon PHX

PHX's edge is mostly recent form plus model confidence. Rest advantage is the main caution flag.

▲Recent form+1.2pp
▲Model confidence+0.9pp
▼Rest advantage-0.9pp

Players to watch

Kahleah CopperPHX
19.9points · ±8.5
Kahleah Copper · 19.9 pts · last-10 19.6 vs season 20.3.
Alyssa ThomasPHX
16.0points · ±5.8
Alyssa Thomas · 16 pts · last-10 16.9 vs season 14.5.
Leila LacanCON
12.2points · ±5.7
Leila Lacan · 12.2 pts · last-10 12.1 vs season 12.3.

Head-to-head · 2-3 · last 5

CON is 2-3 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2025-06-18PHX @ CON83–75
2025-08-06CON @ PHX66–82
2025-09-06PHX @ CON84–87
2026-07-17CON @ PHX96–83
2026-07-19CON @ PHX63–72

Line move

open +180→+195toward PHX

The market has moved 1.8pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

25.2%

ensemble · PHX favored

Elo Static
37.4%
P(CON win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
39.1%
P(CON win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
33.9%
P(CON win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.16 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like PHX.

PHX's edge is mostly recent form plus model confidence. Rest advantage is the main caution flag.

+6.8

pp edge · PHX

-1.76

CLV pp · steam

5.0u · large

on PHX

83.9%

±10.6pp band

5u large — +13.5pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.

Edge

+16.4pp

+9.6pp post-cal

Kelly

45.6%

5.0% sized

Decimal

1.42

+13.5pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 6.8pp · PHX over CON

▲
Recent form70% conf
PHX is 3-2 over its last 5; CON is 0-5.
+1.2pp
▲
Model confidence82% conf
PHX grades as a real model edge, not just noise.
+0.9pp
▼
Rest advantage65% conf
CON has the rest edge entering this game.
-0.9pp
▲
Line steam71% conf
The market moved 1.8pp toward PHX since open.
+0.7pp
▲
Venue split70% conf
PHX's venue form is 10pp stronger in the recent sample.
+0.5pp
▼
Travel burden58% conf
PHX is carrying the heavier road load, so the edge gets a haircut.
-0.5pp
▼
Head to head48% conf
CON has controlled the recent head-to-head sample.
-0.2pp

Open price

+180

Close price

+195

Open no-vig

34.3%

Close no-vig

32.5%

Market faded the model hard

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHX at CON?: The model favors PHX, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

CON vs PHX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 90 high confidence

Points

Kelsey PlumPHX
22.2± 12.6medium
Kahleah CopperPHX
19.9± 8.5high
Alyssa ThomasPHX
16.0± 5.8high

Rebounds

Alyssa ThomasPHX
7.6± 3.1high
DeWanna BonnerPHX
7.1± 2.1high
Olivia Nelson-OdodaCON
6.8± 3.3high

Assists

Alyssa ThomasPHX
8.5± 4.0high
Kelsey PlumPHX
6.1± 3.2medium
Leila LacanCON
4.4± 1.7high

Blocks

Brittney GrinerCON
1.8± 1.0medium
Olivia Nelson-OdodaCON
1.1± 1.2high
Natasha MackPHX
1.0± 0.9high

Steals

Leila LacanCON
1.8± 1.4high
DeWanna BonnerPHX
1.2± 0.8high
Ashlon JacksonCON
1.1± 1.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Phoenix MercuryConnecticut Sun

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop

Phoenix Mercury at Connecticut Sun

CON vs PHX.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like PHX.

CON vs PHX.