Phoenix Mercury at Connecticut Sun
PHX
5-12
CON
2-15
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
hoenix Mercury visit Connecticut Sun Friday at 8/7 - 7:30 PM EDT.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
PHX
Away
Stat
CON
Home
42
FG %
42
Season series
Series starts 7/17
CON@PHXupcomingCON@PHXupcomingPHX@CONtodayScouting report
PHX @ CON
Tale of the tape
5-12
Record
2-15
#7
Conf rank
#7
-3.4
Pt diff
-10.6
W1
Streak
L7
3-7
Last 10
1-9
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
42.8%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CON vs PHX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX19.3± 10.1medium
- Brittney GrinerCON12.3± 5.6low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX12.1± 6.5medium
Rebounds
- Aneesah MorrowCON10.1± 5.0medium
- Natasha MackPHX8.3± 3.5medium
- Alyssa ThomasPHX6.6± 3.5medium
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.5± 2.7medium
- Leila LacanCON4.8± 2.8low
- Saniya RiversCON3.2± 2.2medium
Blocks
- Brittney GrinerCON1.5± 1.6low
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.2medium
- Saniya RiversCON0.9± 1.0medium
Steals
- Leila LacanCON1.6± 1.4low
- Monique Akoa MakaniPHX1.6± 1.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX1.5± 1.4medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
PHX
league avg
CON
42.7%
FG%
44.6
42.6%
32.4%
3PT %
33.5
26.0%
82.5
PPG
85.9
79.2
19.4
Assists / G
18.0
18.7
13.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
13.4