Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 7, 2026

COL

45-70

PregameFri, 8:15 PM EDTMLB.TV

STL

57-58

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

98 total idx

Busch Stadium run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

4-6

STL -0.9 vs COL -1.0 margin

STL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Ryan Feltner

SP · #18

4-5

W-L

5.75

ERA

1.46

WHIP

76.2

Last 3 starts

vsKCW(4-5)6.0 IP4 ER3 K

@MILL(3-5)5.0 IP5 ER4 K

vsCINL(3-4)2.1 IP8 ER3 K

Home starter

Kyle Leahy

SP · #62

7-4

W-L

3.44

ERA

1.33

WHIP

107.1

Last 3 starts

@TOR-6.0 IP1 ER3 K

vsCIN-6.0 IP2 ER9 K

@LAA-6.0 IP1 ER4 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob35% / 65%

LeanHome · 15pp

ConfidenceEdge

Head to head

SeriesSeries starts 8/7

TypeRegular Season Series

Scouting report · pre-game

STL vs COL.

STL is 4-6 recently; COL is 3-7.

64.6%

model · STL win prob

Recent form

STL4–6-0.9
COL3–7-1.0

Situational

STL2d rest
COL2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. STL has 6 straight road games; COL has 0.

Model angle

Weather and park remove about 0.2 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.2pp

Players to watch

Matthew LiberatoreSTL
4.9strikeouts · ±2.2
Matthew Liberatore · 4.9 K · last-10 5 vs season 4.9.
Kyle FreelandCOL
4.8strikeouts · ±2.8
Kyle Freeland · 4.8 K · last-10 5 vs season 4.4.
Kyle LeahySTL
4.4strikeouts · ±2.4
Kyle Leahy · 4.4 K · last-10 4.5 vs season 4.3.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.0%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
64.1%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
66.9%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
62.6%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.78 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

STL vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 109 high confidence

Strikeouts

Matthew LiberatoreSTL
4.9± 2.2high
Kyle FreelandCOL
4.8± 2.8high
Gabriel HughesCOL
4.7± 3.5low

Hits

Cole CarriggCOL
1.1± 1.1high
Kyle KarrosCOL
1.1± 0.9high
Alec BurlesonSTL
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Mickey MoniakCOL
2.2± 2.5high
Willi CastroCOL
2.1± 2.0high
Alec BurlesonSTL
2.1± 3.6high

RBIs

Mickey MoniakCOL
0.9± 1.3high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.6high
Jake McCarthyCOL
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
3.9± 1.9high
Ryan FeltnerCOL
3.3± 2.7medium
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.1± 2.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

COL

league avg

STL

.744

OPS

◀

.719

.694

.323

OBP

◀

.318

.315

4.82

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.34

5.51

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.12

1.51

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.34

7.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

7.7

The One modelEdge

Fri, Aug 7

COL

Rockies

51-84

vs64.7%STL

STL★

Cardinals

69-63

COL 35.3%win prob64.7% STL

STL 1495 · COL 1418Box score→

Team pages

Colorado RockiesSt. Louis Cardinals

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals

The matchup, end-to-end.

STL vs COL.

3 sub-models, blended.

STL vs COL.

Team rate stats vs league