Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 7, 2026

LAD

69-46

PregameFri, 9:40 PM EDTMLB.TV

ARI

61-54

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Recent form

6-4

ARI +0.7 vs LAD -2.0 margin

ARI brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Roki Sasaki

SP · #11

5-5

W-L

4.64

ERA

1.30

WHIP

101

99.0

Last 3 starts

vsSEAW(5-5)5.1 IP2 ER7 K

@NYMW(4-5)7.0 IP1 ER9 K

@NYY-5.2 IP0 ER5 K

Home starter

Merrill Kelly

SP · #29

8-9

W-L

5.04

ERA

1.49

WHIP

114.1

Last 3 starts

@CLEL(8-9)5.0 IP5 ER5 K

@PIT-5.2 IP0 ER6 K

vsATHW(8-8)5.0 IP2 ER3 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob54% / 46%

LeanAway · 4pp

ConfidenceLean

Head to head

SeriesLAD win series 2-0

TypePreseason Series

Scouting report · pre-game

ARI vs LAD.

ARI is 6-4 recently; LAD is 2-8.

45.6%

model · ARI win prob

Recent form

ARI6–4+0.7
LAD2–8-2.0

Situational

ARI2d rest
LAD2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. ARI has 0 straight road games; LAD has 3.

Model angle

No actionable edge surfaced.

Players to watch

Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.1strikeouts · ±2.4
Yoshinobu Yamamoto · 6.1 K · last-10 6.2 vs season 6.1.
Justin WrobleskiLAD
5.3strikeouts · ±3.0
Justin Wrobleski · 5.3 K · last-10 5.6 vs season 4.8.
Merrill KellyARI
3.9strikeouts · ±1.8
Merrill Kelly · 3.9 K · last-10 3.9 vs season 3.8.

Head-to-head · 3-0 · last 3

ARI is 3-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-07-10ARI @ LAD9–3
2026-07-11ARI @ LAD9–2
2026-07-12ARI @ LAD5–3

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

45.7%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
47.4%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
46.9%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
48.2%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.54 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ARI vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

129

projections · 101 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tarik SkubalLAD
7.5± 2.8medium
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.1± 2.4high
Kris BubicLAD
5.7± 3.6low

Hits

James McCannARI
1.6± 1.1high
Freddie FreemanLAD
1.5± 0.9high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.3± 0.8high

Total bases

James McCannARI
2.6± 2.4high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.4± 2.3high
Teoscar HernandezLAD
2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

James McCannARI
1.2± 1.3high
Gabriel MorenoARI
1.0± 0.8high
Tyler LocklearARI
0.7± 1.4low

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
2.9± 2.0high
Kris BubicLAD
2.6± 2.5low
Roki SasakiLAD
2.6± 2.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAD

league avg

ARI

.771

OPS

◀

.719

.709

.339

OBP

◀

.318

.315

5.08

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.58

3.74

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.20

1.16

WHIP

◀

1.30

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

6.9

The One modelLean

Fri, Aug 7

LAD★

Dodgers

84-60

vs54.4%LAD

ARI

Diamondbacks

65-70

LAD 54.4%win prob45.6% ARI

LAD 1550 · ARI 1508Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks

The matchup, end-to-end.

ARI vs LAD.

3 sub-models, blended.

ARI vs LAD.

Team rate stats vs league