Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 7, 2026

68-46

PregameFri, 9:45 PM EDTApple TV

SEA

56-59

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

95 total idx

T-Mobile Park run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

7-3

TB 0.0 vs SEA -1.3 margin

TB brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Drew Rasmussen

SP · #57

10-5

W-L

2.91

ERA

0.93

WHIP

122

117.1

Last 3 starts

vsCHWW(10-5)6.0 IP0 ER10 K

vsCLEW(9-5)7.0 IP0 ER9 K

@TORW(8-5)5.0 IP2 ER5 K

Home starter

Logan Gilbert

SP · #36

8-6

W-L

3.46

ERA

0.99

WHIP

139

132.2

Last 3 starts

vsMIN-7.0 IP3 ER6 K

@TEX-5.2 IP3 ER4 K

vsSFW(8-6)6.0 IP3 ER10 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob69% / 31%

LeanAway · 19pp

Confidence★ Lock

Head to head

SeriesTB leads series 2-1

TypeRegular Season Series

Scouting report · pre-game

SEA vs TB.

SEA is 5-5 recently; TB is 7-3.

30.8%

model · SEA win prob

Recent form

SEA5–5-1.3
TB7–3+0.0

Situational

SEA2d rest
TB2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. SEA has 0 straight road games; TB has 3.

Model angle

Weather and park remove about 0.4 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.4pp

Players to watch

Logan GilbertSEA
6.7strikeouts · ±2.1
Logan Gilbert · 6.7 K · last-10 7 vs season 6.3.
Bryan WooSEA
6.1strikeouts · ±2.0
Bryan Woo · 6.1 K · last-10 6.3 vs season 5.8.
Drew RasmussenTB
5.8strikeouts · ±3.9
Drew Rasmussen · 5.8 K · last-10 5.9 vs season 5.6.

Head-to-head · 1-2 · last 3

SEA is 1-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-07-10SEA @ TB2–7
2026-07-11SEA @ TB1–6
2026-07-12SEA @ TB8–2

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

30.0%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
38.6%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
37.9%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
37.9%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SEA vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 119 high confidence

Strikeouts

Logan GilbertSEA
6.7± 2.0high
Bryan WooSEA
6.1± 1.9high
Bryce MillerSEA
5.9± 4.4low

Hits

Cole YoungSEA
1.3± 1.2high
Chandler SimpsonTB
1.3± 1.0high
Nick FortesTB
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Junior CamineroTB
2.2± 2.7high
Cole YoungSEA
2.0± 1.7high
Randy ArozarenaSEA
2.0± 2.5high

RBIs

Cal RaleighSEA
0.7± 1.0high
Junior CamineroTB
0.7± 0.9high
Nick FortesTB
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Freddy PeraltaTB
3.7± 3.4high
Bryan WooSEA
3.2± 2.4high
George KirbySEA
2.6± 2.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

SEA

.732

OPS

◀

.719

.688

.329

OBP

◀

.318

.310

4.47

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.98

3.74

Team ERA

4.18

3.77

1.15

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.19

8.2

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

The One model★ Lock

Fri, Aug 7

TB★

Rays

96-46

vs69.2%TB

SEA

Mariners

67-75

TB 69.2%win prob30.8% SEA

TB 1588 · SEA 1484Box score→

Team pages

Tampa Bay RaysSeattle Mariners

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners

The matchup, end-to-end.

SEA vs TB.

3 sub-models, blended.

SEA vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league