Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 7, 2026

DET

55-59

PregameFri, 10:15 PM EDTMLB.TV

48-67

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

94 total idx

Oracle Park run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

5-5

DET +3.9 vs SF +0.1 margin

DET brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Keider Montero

SP · #54

8-6

W-L

3.17

ERA

1.00

WHIP

116.1

Last 3 starts

@ATHW(8-6)6.0 IP0 ER2 K

vsBALL(7-6)4.1 IP4 ER1 K

@CHCW(7-5)5.1 IP1 ER8 K

Home starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob51% / 50%

LeanTossup

ConfidenceTossup

Head to head

SeriesSeries starts 8/7

TypeRegular Season Series

Scouting report · pre-game

SF vs DET.

SF is 4-6 recently; DET is 5-5.

49.4%

model · SF win prob

Recent form

SF4–6+0.1
DET5–5+3.9

Situational

SF2d rest
DET2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. SF has 7 straight road games; DET has 5.

Model angle

Weather and park remove about 0.5 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.5pp

Players to watch

Landen RouppSF
5.1strikeouts · ±2.0
Landen Roupp · 5.1 K · last-10 4.8 vs season 5.5.
Logan WebbSF
5.0strikeouts · ±2.1
Logan Webb · 5 K · last-10 5 vs season 5.1.
Framber ValdezDET
4.4strikeouts · ±2.9
Framber Valdez · 4.4 K · last-10 4.4 vs season 4.5.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.0%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
49.6%
P(SF win)
44%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
49.6%
P(SF win)
11%
weight
Bullpen Park
46.5%
P(SF win)
45%
weight

Disagreement

1.54 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SF vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

Troy MeltonDET
5.7± 2.4low
Landen RouppSF
5.1± 2.0high
Logan WebbSF
5.0± 2.0high

Hits

Max ClarkDET
1.5± 1.7low
Eduardo ValenciaDET
1.3± 1.8low
Colt KeithDET
1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

Max ClarkDET
2.7± 3.5low
Eduardo ValenciaDET
2.6± 4.3low
Osleivis BasabeSF
2.5± 3.4low

RBIs

Osleivis BasabeSF
1.3± 2.0low
Eduardo ValenciaDET
1.0± 2.2low
Gleyber TorresDET
0.9± 1.7high

Earned runs

Carson WhisenhuntSF
3.5± 2.6low
Landen RouppSF
2.7± 1.9high
Framber ValdezDET
2.6± 2.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

DET

league avg

.729

OPS

.719

.722

.319

OBP

◀

.318

.309

4.52

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.17

3.57

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.38

1.21

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.36

8.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

The One modelTossup

Fri, Aug 7

DET★

Tigers

58-74

vs50.5%DET

Giants

67-78

DET 50.5%win prob49.5% SF

DET 1489 · SF 1462Box score→

Team pages

Detroit TigersSan Francisco Giants

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Detroit Tigers at San Francisco Giants

The matchup, end-to-end.

SF vs DET.

3 sub-models, blended.

SF vs DET.

Team rate stats vs league