Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LV at IND?

The model favors LV, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

21-9

PregameThu, 7:00 PM EDTPrime Video

IND

19-11

ATS/LV -1.5O/U/194.5ML/LV-112

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

3 signals · model + market

Recent form

7-3

IND +8.4 vs LV +7.2 margin

IND brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Rest edge

+1.0 days

IND 4 rest vs LV 3

IND has fresher legs, a real late-game edge on the second night.

Model rank

+60.5

IND Elo vs LV Elo

LV owns the cleaner matchup rating, forcing IND uphill early today again.

WNBAThu, Aug 68/6 - 7:00 PM EDTSeriesIND leads series 2-0VegasLV -1.5

Preview · WNBA

as Vegas Aces visit Indiana Fever Thursday at 8/6 - 7:00 PM EDT. LV is 4-2 in their last 6. IND is rolling — 5-1 in their last 6.

Vegas opened LV as a 1.5-point favorite with the total at 194.5. IND's moneyline implies a 52% break-even, LV the inverse.

For bettors: the LV side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 194.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

Team stats

Away

Stat

IND

Home

FG %

Season series

IND leads series 2-0

Jul 5

IND84@

LV68

Jul 13

IND109@

LV75

Aug 6

LV@

INDtoday

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LV -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

194.5

High-scoring · +29.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.3h

Moneyline

LV-11253%

IND-10852%

10· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LV -1.5↗SpreadBet LV -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

194.5

+2.0 since open

Scouting report

LV @ IND

8/6 - 7:00 PM EDT

Rest going in

IND +1 day

LVStandard

2 days

last game Aug 3

INDLong rest

3 days

last game Aug 2

Model edge vs market

Pass · split signal

Spread

Market

LV -1.5

Model

IND -11.8

Edge

split

Total

Market

194.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

LV -112

Model

IND

Edge

fading market

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

LVmetricIND

21-9

Record

19-11

Conf rank

+5.4

Pt diff

+5.8

Streak

6-4

Last 10

7-3

74.7

Power score

86.4

Power rank

75.0

Sched ahead

66.5

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Betting line

LV -1.5·O/U 194.5·LV -112/IND -108

DraftKings · via ESPN

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Scouting report · pre-game

IND vs LV.

IND is 7-3 recently; LV is 6-4.

44.5%

model · IND win prob

Recent form

IND7–3+8.4
LV6–4+7.2

Situational

IND4d rest
LV3d rest
+1.0d differential

IND has 1 more rest day. IND has 3 straight road games; LV has 2.

Model angle

+5.2ppon LV

LV's edge is mostly model confidence plus line steam. Venue split is the main caution flag.

▲Model confidence+0.9pp
▲Line steam+0.9pp
▼Venue split-0.5pp

Players to watch

A'ja WilsonLV
26.5points · ±8.1
A'ja Wilson · 26.5 pts · last-10 26.9 vs season 25.9.
Kelsey MitchellIND
26.2points · ±4.8
Kelsey Mitchell · 26.2 pts · last-10 28.1 vs season 23.3.
Caitlin ClarkIND
21.2points · ±10.9
Caitlin Clark · 21.2 pts · last-10 21.7 vs season 20.6.

Head-to-head · 6-4 · last 10

IND is 6-4 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2025-09-26LV @ IND84–72
2025-09-28LV @ IND83–90
2025-10-01IND @ LV98–107
2026-07-05IND @ LV84–68
2026-07-12IND @ LV109–75

Line move

open -115→-105toward LV

The market has moved 2.3pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

44.7%

ensemble · LV favored

Elo Static
51.4%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
50.9%
P(IND win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
52.5%
P(IND win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.67 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like LV.

LV's edge is mostly model confidence plus line steam. Venue split is the main caution flag.

+5.2

pp edge · LV

5.0u · large

on LV

66.8%

±8.9pp band

5u large — +14pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.

Edge

+16.4pp

+11.2pp post-cal

Kelly

29.6%

5.0% sized

Decimal

1.89

+14.0pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 5.2pp · LV over IND

▲
Model confidence82% conf
LV grades as a real model edge, not just noise.
+0.9pp
▲
Line steam73% conf
The market moved 2.2pp toward LV since open.
+0.9pp
▼
Venue split70% conf
IND's venue form trims LV's edge by 10pp.
-0.5pp
▼
Travel burden58% conf
LV is carrying the heavier road load, so the edge gets a haircut.
-0.5pp
▼
Rest advantage65% conf
IND has the rest edge entering this game.
-0.3pp
▼
Head to head48% conf
IND has controlled the recent head-to-head sample.
-0.2pp

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LV at IND?: The model favors LV, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.2pp

best edge · LV · DraftKings

★ best

-112DraftKings

edge +5.2pp · implied 50.4%

IND

no live price

Book	LV	IND	Best edge
DraftKings	-112★	-108	+5.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

IND vs LV.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 95 high confidence

Points

A'ja WilsonLV
26.5± 8.1high
Kelsey MitchellIND
26.2± 4.8high
Caitlin ClarkIND
21.2± 10.9high

Rebounds

A'ja WilsonLV
9.4± 3.9high
Aliyah BostonIND
7.3± 3.3high
Monique BillingsIND
5.8± 3.2high

Assists

Caitlin ClarkIND
7.5± 2.6high
Chelsea GrayLV
6.9± 2.4high
Jackie YoungLV
6.7± 3.6high

Blocks

A'ja WilsonLV
1.9± 1.1high
Makayla TimpsonIND
1.0± 1.4high
Aliyah BostonIND
0.8± 0.8high

Steals

Aliyah BostonIND
1.5± 1.6high
Kelsey MitchellIND
1.3± 1.5high
A'ja WilsonLV
1.3± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Las Vegas AcesIndiana Fever

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop

Las Vegas Aces at Indiana Fever

IND vs LV.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like LV.

Where to bet this game.

IND vs LV.