Park factor
95 total idx
T-Mobile Park run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners
DET
DET
55-58
PregameThu, 4:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
SEA
SEA
55-59
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketT-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Framber Valdez
SP · #59
6-7
W-L
4.41
ERA
1.39
WHIP
98
K
120.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@ATHW(6-7)7.0 IP2 ER6 K
vsKC-5.0 IP2 ER4 K
@CHCL(5-7)0.2 IP6 ER1 K
Home starter
Bryce Miller
SP · #50
4-5
W-L
2.80
ERA
0.92
WHIP
74
K
74.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsMIN-5.1 IP2 ER3 K
@TEXL(4-5)5.1 IP5 ER0 K
vsSFL(4-4)5.2 IP2 ER6 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob47% / 53%
LeanTossup
ConfidenceTossup
Head to head
SeriesDET leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
SEA vs DET.
SEA is 4-6 recently; DET is 6-4.
52.9%
model · SEA win prob
Recent form
- SEA4–6-2.1
- DET6–4+4.2
Situational
- SEA2d rest
- DET2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. SEA has 0 straight road games; DET has 4.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.4 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.4pp
Players to watch
- Logan GilbertSEA6.7strikeouts · ±2.1
Logan Gilbert · 6.7 K · last-10 7 vs season 6.3.
- Bryan WooSEA6.1strikeouts · ±2.0
Bryan Woo · 6.1 K · last-10 6.3 vs season 5.8.
- George KirbySEA5.4strikeouts · ±2.1
George Kirby · 5.4 K · last-10 5.5 vs season 5.2.
Head-to-head · 0-1 · last 1
SEA is 0-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-04DET @ SEA8–0
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
52.9%
ensemble · SEA favored
Elo Static
51.5%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.4%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
49.6%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.55 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
90% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
SEA vs DET.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 106 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Logan GilbertSEA6.7± 2.0high
- Bryan WooSEA6.1± 1.9high
- Bryce MillerSEA5.9± 4.4low
Hits
- Max ClarkDET1.5± 1.7low
- Eduardo ValenciaDET1.3± 1.8low
- Cole YoungSEA1.3± 1.2high
Total bases
- Max ClarkDET2.7± 3.5low
- Eduardo ValenciaDET2.6± 4.3low
- Cole YoungSEA2.0± 1.7high
RBIs
- Eduardo ValenciaDET1.0± 2.2low
- Gleyber TorresDET0.9± 1.7high
- Hao-Yu LeeDET0.8± 1.1high
Earned runs
- Bryan WooSEA3.2± 2.4high
- Framber ValdezDET2.6± 2.0high
- George KirbySEA2.6± 2.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
DET
league avg
SEA
.731
OPS
◀
.720
.687
.319
OBP
◀
.318
.310
4.54
Runs / G
◀
4.50
3.98
3.56
Team ERA
◀
4.18
3.78
1.21
WHIP
1.30
▶1.19
8.5
K / 9
8.5
▶8.7
The One modelTossup
Thu, Aug 6DET
Tigers
58-73
vs52.9%SEA
SEA★
Mariners
66-75
DET 47.1%win prob52.9% SEA
SEA 1479 · DET 1493Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
