Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 7, 2026

HOU

59-57

PregameFri, 9:40 PM EDTMLB.TV

59-56

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

96 total idx

Petco Park run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

7-3

HOU +1.3 vs SD +0.6 margin

HOU brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Petco Park · San Diego, California

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Ronel Blanco

SP · #56

0-1

W-L

7.36

ERA

1.30

WHIP

14.2

Last 3 starts

vsTEX-4.2 IP3 ER4 K

@CHWL(0-1)5.1 IP5 ER4 K

vsMIA-4.2 IP4 ER8 K

Home starter

Robbie Ray

SP · #38

10-6

W-L

3.08

ERA

1.29

WHIP

107

122.2

Last 3 starts

@SDW(10-6)6.0 IP1 ER6 K

vsLAAW(9-6)6.0 IP0 ER5 K

@SEA-4.0 IP1 ER6 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob53% / 47%

LeanAway · 3pp

ConfidenceTossup

Head to head

SeriesSeries starts 8/7

TypeRegular Season Series

Scouting report · pre-game

SD vs HOU.

SD is 7-3 recently; HOU is 7-3.

46.8%

model · SD win prob

Recent form

SD7–3+0.6
HOU7–3+1.3

Situational

SD2d rest
HOU2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. SD has 3 straight road games; HOU has 0.

Model angle

Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.3pp

Players to watch

Robbie RaySD
4.8strikeouts · ±1.8
Robbie Ray · 4.8 K · last-10 4.8 vs season 4.9.
Michael KingSD
4.7strikeouts · ±1.7
Michael King · 4.7 K · last-10 4.5 vs season 5.
Walker BuehlerSD
4.3strikeouts · ±2.2
Walker Buehler · 4.3 K · last-10 4.3 vs season 4.2.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.9%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
48.1%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.6%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.2%
P(SD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.35 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

84% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SD vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 109 high confidence

Strikeouts

Peter LambertHOU
5.9± 2.3medium
Hunter BrownHOU
5.5± 2.8low
Ronel BlancoHOU
5.3± 3.1low

Hits

Jeremy PenaHOU
1.5± 1.0high
Jackson MerrillSD
1.4± 1.1high
Yainer DiazHOU
1.2± 1.6high

Total bases

Jeremy PenaHOU
2.8± 2.4high
Jackson MerrillSD
2.2± 1.9high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.1± 2.3high

RBIs

Jeremy PenaHOU
0.8± 1.1high
Manny MachadoSD
0.8± 1.4high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Ronel BlancoHOU
4.0± 1.4low
Walker BuehlerSD
3.0± 2.8high
Tatsuya ImaiHOU
2.3± 2.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

league avg

.738

OPS

◀

.719

.694

.322

OBP

◀

.318

.312

4.66

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.23

4.60

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.21

1.36

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.33

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

The One modelTossup

Fri, Aug 7

HOU★

Astros

77-66

vs53.2%HOU

Padres

68-68

HOU 53.2%win prob46.8% SD

HOU 1543 · SD 1506Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Houston Astros at San Diego Padres

The matchup, end-to-end.

SD vs HOU.

3 sub-models, blended.

SD vs HOU.

Team rate stats vs league