Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at NYY?

The model favors NYY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 5, 2026

STL

56-58

PregameWed, 7:05 PM EDTMLB.TV, Prime Video

NYY

64-50

ATS/NYY -1.5O/U/8.5ML/NYY-156

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Recent form

5-5

NYY -0.8 vs STL -1.3 margin

NYY brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYY spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

NYY no-vig %

58.3%

open 57.2% · +1.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYY favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Andre Pallante

SP · #53

11-6

W-L

3.72

ERA

1.22

WHIP

118.2

Last 3 starts

vsCHC-6.1 IP2 ER3 K

vsCINW(11-6)7.0 IP0 ER8 K

@ARI-5.1 IP3 ER3 K

Home starter

Will Warren

SP · #29

8-5

W-L

4.14

ERA

1.36

WHIP

109

108.2

Last 3 starts

@CHCW(8-5)6.2 IP0 ER7 K

@PHIL(7-5)3.0 IP6 ER5 K

vsPIT-0.2 IP0 ER1 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 8.5

Money+129 / -156

Model edge

Win prob41% / 60%

LeanHome · 10pp

ConfidenceEdge

Head to head

SeriesSeries tied 1-1

TypeCurrent Series

Place a bet

Take NYY on the model side.

Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.

Model side · moneyline

-156Bet NYY ML↗-156Bet NYY ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 8.5Bet the total↗O/U 8.5Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Scouting report · pre-game

NYY vs STL.

NYY is 5-5 recently; STL is 3-7.

59.5%

model · NYY win prob

Recent form

NYY5–5-0.8
STL3–7-1.3

Situational

NYY1d restB2B
STL1d restB2B
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. NYY has 0 straight road games; STL has 5.

Model angle

No actionable edge surfaced.

Players to watch

Cam SchlittlerNYY
7.8strikeouts · ±2.6
Cam Schlittler · 7.8 K · last-10 8.2 vs season 7.1.
Ryan WeathersNYY
5.6strikeouts · ±1.8
Ryan Weathers · 5.6 K · last-10 5.3 vs season 6.
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
4.9strikeouts · ±2.2
Matthew Liberatore · 4.9 K · last-10 5 vs season 4.9.

Head-to-head · 1-1 · last 2

NYY is 1-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-08-03STL @ NYY13–7
2026-08-04STL @ NYY0–2

Line move

open -149→-156toward NYY

The market has moved 1.1pp toward the home side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.5%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
59.0%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
58.5%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.4%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.37 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.09

CLV pp

Open price

-149

Close price

-156

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Market came to the model

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at NYY?: The model favors NYY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

STL

no live price

NYY

no live price

Book	STL	NYY	Best edge
DraftKings	+129	-156	+1.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

NYY vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 110 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cam SchlittlerNYY
7.8± 2.6high
Gerrit ColeNYY
6.2± 2.7low
Ryan WeathersNYY
5.6± 1.8high

Hits

Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
1.2± 1.0high
Alec BurlesonSTL
1.1± 1.0high
Jordan WalkerSTL
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
2.5± 2.8high
Alec BurlesonSTL
2.1± 3.6high
Ben RiceNYY
1.5± 1.9high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
0.8± 0.9high
Alec BurlesonSTL
0.7± 1.9high
Spencer JonesNYY
0.5± 1.0high

Earned runs

Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.9± 2.1high
Will WarrenNYY
2.5± 2.3high
Michael McGreevySTL
2.4± 2.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

NYY

.694

OPS

.720

▶

.722

.315

OBP

◀

.318

.309

4.35

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.57

4.15

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.34

1.34

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.19

7.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.0

The One modelEdge

Wed, Aug 5

STL

Cardinals

68-63

vs59.5%NYY

NYY★

Yankees

75-62

STL 40.5%win prob59.5% NYY

NYY 1530 · STL 1490Box score→

Team pages

St. Louis CardinalsNew York Yankees

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

St. Louis Cardinals at New York Yankees

The matchup, end-to-end.

Take NYY on the model side.

NYY vs STL.

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

NYY vs STL.

Team rate stats vs league

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

3 sub-models, blended.