Recent form
5-5
NYY -0.8 vs STL -1.3 margin
NYY brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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St. Louis Cardinals at New York Yankees
STL
STL
56-58
PregameWed, 7:05 PM EDTMLB.TV, Prime Video
NYY
NYY
64-50
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketYankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
Line movement
200 snapshots
NYY spread
-1.5
open PK · -1.5
Total
O/U 8.5
open O/U 8.5
NYY no-vig %
58.3%
open 57.2% · +1.1
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYY favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Andre Pallante
SP · #53
11-6
W-L
3.72
ERA
1.22
WHIP
86
K
118.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsCHC-6.1 IP2 ER3 K
vsCINW(11-6)7.0 IP0 ER8 K
@ARI-5.1 IP3 ER3 K
Home starter
Will Warren
SP · #29
8-5
W-L
4.14
ERA
1.36
WHIP
109
K
108.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@CHCW(8-5)6.2 IP0 ER7 K
@PHIL(7-5)3.0 IP6 ER5 K
vsPIT-0.2 IP0 ER1 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 8.5
Money+129 / -156
Model edge
Win prob41% / 60%
LeanHome · 10pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesSeries tied 1-1
TypeCurrent Series
Place a bet
Take NYY on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Scouting report · pre-game
NYY vs STL.
NYY is 5-5 recently; STL is 3-7.
59.5%
model · NYY win prob
Recent form
- NYY5–5-0.8
- STL3–7-1.3
Situational
- NYY1d restB2B
- STL1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. NYY has 0 straight road games; STL has 5.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Cam SchlittlerNYY7.8strikeouts · ±2.6
Cam Schlittler · 7.8 K · last-10 8.2 vs season 7.1.
- Ryan WeathersNYY5.6strikeouts · ±1.8
Ryan Weathers · 5.6 K · last-10 5.3 vs season 6.
- Matthew LiberatoreSTL4.9strikeouts · ±2.2
Matthew Liberatore · 4.9 K · last-10 5 vs season 4.9.
Head-to-head · 1-1 · last 2
NYY is 1-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-03STL @ NYY13–7
- 2026-08-04STL @ NYY0–2
Line move
open -149→-156toward NYY
The market has moved 1.1pp toward the home side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
59.5%
ensemble · NYY favored
Elo Static
59.0%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
58.5%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.4%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.37 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NYY vs STL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
127
projections · 110 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Cam SchlittlerNYY7.8± 2.6high
- Gerrit ColeNYY6.2± 2.7low
- Ryan WeathersNYY5.6± 1.8high
Hits
- Luis Garcia Jr.NYY1.2± 1.0high
- Alec BurlesonSTL1.1± 1.0high
- Jordan WalkerSTL1.1± 0.9high
Total bases
- Luis Garcia Jr.NYY2.5± 2.8high
- Alec BurlesonSTL2.1± 3.6high
- Ben RiceNYY1.5± 1.9high
RBIs
- Luis Garcia Jr.NYY0.8± 0.9high
- Alec BurlesonSTL0.7± 1.9high
- Spencer JonesNYY0.5± 1.0high
Earned runs
- Matthew LiberatoreSTL2.9± 2.1high
- Will WarrenNYY2.5± 2.3high
- Michael McGreevySTL2.4± 2.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
STL
league avg
NYY
.694
OPS
.720
▶.722
.315
OBP
◀
.318
.309
4.35
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.57
4.15
Team ERA
4.18
▶3.34
1.34
WHIP
1.30
▶1.19
7.7
K / 9
8.5
▶9.0
The One modelEdge
Wed, Aug 5STL
Cardinals
68-63
vs59.5%NYY
NYY★
Yankees
75-62
STL 40.5%win prob59.5% NYY
NYY 1530 · STL 1490Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- Blue JaysAstros8/5 - 2:10 PM EDT
- DodgersCubs8/5 - 2:20 PM EDT
- GiantsRangers8/5 - 2:35 PM EDT
- RaysRockies8/5 - 3:10 PM EDT
- AngelsOrioles8/5 - 6:35 PM EDT
- AthleticsReds8/5 - 6:40 PM EDT
- MetsGuardians8/5 - 6:40 PM EDT
- NationalsPhillies8/5 - 6:40 PM EDT
- White SoxRed Sox8/5 - 7:10 PM EDT
- MarlinsBraves8/5 - 7:15 PM EDT
- PiratesBrewers8/5 - 7:30 PM EDT
- TwinsRoyals8/5 - 7:40 PM EDT
- TigersMariners8/5 - 9:40 PM EDT
- PadresDiamondbacks8/5 - 9:40 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
