Recent form
5-5
PHI +2.0 vs WSH -1.9 margin
PHI brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies
WSH
WSH
55-60
PregameWed, 6:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
PHI
PHI
61-53
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketCitizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Line movement
200 snapshots
PHI spread
-1.5
open PK · -1.5
Total
O/U 9.5
open O/U 9.5
PHI no-vig %
60.7%
open 59.3% · +1.4
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Jake Irvin
SP · #27
2-5
W-L
5.56
ERA
1.32
WHIP
59
K
56.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@ATLL(2-5)5.0 IP5 ER1 K
@ATLW(2-4)5.0 IP0 ER7 K
vsNYM-4.0 IP2 ER6 K
Home starter
Andrew Painter
SP · #24
1-8
W-L
6.72
ERA
1.61
WHIP
59
K
71.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@BAL-6.0 IP2 ER6 K
vsMIAL(1-8)2.0 IP6 ER3 K
@MIL-5.0 IP5 ER3 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 9.5
Money+143 / -174
Model edge
Win prob39% / 61%
LeanHome · 11pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesPHI leads series 2-0
TypeCurrent Series
Place a bet
Take PHI on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Scouting report · pre-game
PHI vs WSH.
PHI enters on a 4-game win streak; WSH is 2-8 over its last 10.
61.0%
model · PHI win prob
Recent form
- PHI5–5+2.0
- WSH2–8-1.9
Situational
- PHI1d restB2B
- WSH1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. PHI has 0 straight road games; WSH has 6.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
Players to watch
- Jesus LuzardoPHI7.4strikeouts · ±3.3
Jesus Luzardo · 7.4 K · last-10 7.7 vs season 6.9.
- Cristopher SanchezPHI6.3strikeouts · ±3.1
Cristopher Sanchez · 6.3 K · last-10 5.7 vs season 7.1.
- Cade CavalliWSH5.6strikeouts · ±3.6
Cade Cavalli · 5.6 K · last-10 5.7 vs season 5.5.
Head-to-head · 3-0 · last 3
PHI is 3-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-06-25PHI @ WSH10–5
- 2026-08-03WSH @ PHI3–6
- 2026-08-04WSH @ PHI0–5
Line move
open -163→-174toward PHI
The market has moved 1.5pp toward the home side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
61.0%
ensemble · PHI favored
Elo Static
60.7%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
59.3%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
62.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.10 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
93% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHI vs WSH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
127
projections · 98 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Zack WheelerPHI7.5± 3.7medium
- Jesus LuzardoPHI7.4± 3.3high
- Cristopher SanchezPHI6.3± 3.1high
Hits
- Luis ArraezPHI1.5± 1.3high
- Trea TurnerPHI1.3± 1.1high
- Bryan De La CruzPHI1.0± 0.9low
Total bases
- Trea TurnerPHI2.1± 2.1high
- Bryce HarperPHI2.0± 1.6high
- Abimelec OrtizWSH2.0± 2.7low
RBIs
- Alec BohmPHI0.7± 1.2high
- Bryan De La CruzPHI0.7± 1.4low
- Bryce HarperPHI0.7± 0.8high
Earned runs
- Andrew PainterPHI3.8± 2.6medium
- Aaron NolaPHI3.1± 1.7high
- Miles MikolasWSH2.9± 2.7high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
WSH
league avg
PHI
.765
OPS
◀
.720
.706
.326
OBP
◀
.318
.305
5.30
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.39
4.78
Team ERA
4.18
▶4.17
1.40
WHIP
1.30
▶1.30
7.7
K / 9
8.5
▶9.9
The One modelEdge
Wed, Aug 5WSH
Nationals
66-67
vs61.0%PHI
PHI★
Phillies
79-67
WSH 39.0%win prob61.0% PHI
PHI 1528 · WSH 1476Box score→
Elsewhere in the MLB
- Blue JaysAstros8/5 - 2:10 PM EDT
- DodgersCubs8/5 - 2:20 PM EDT
- GiantsRangers8/5 - 2:35 PM EDT
- RaysRockies8/5 - 3:10 PM EDT
- AngelsOrioles8/5 - 6:35 PM EDT
- AthleticsReds8/5 - 6:40 PM EDT
- MetsGuardians8/5 - 6:40 PM EDT
- CardinalsYankees8/5 - 7:05 PM EDT
- White SoxRed Sox8/5 - 7:10 PM EDT
- MarlinsBraves8/5 - 7:15 PM EDT
- PiratesBrewers8/5 - 7:30 PM EDT
- TwinsRoyals8/5 - 7:40 PM EDT
- TigersMariners8/5 - 9:40 PM EDT
- PadresDiamondbacks8/5 - 9:40 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
