Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Box Score — Aug 5, 2026

FINAL+6WSH

WSH

56-60

104

PHI

61-54

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

37,025 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

PHI no-vig %

60.7%

open 59.3% · +1.4

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.0%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
59.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.7%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
60.3%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.06 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+19.4pp

best edge · WSH · DraftKings

WSH

★ best

+370DraftKings

edge +19.4pp · implied 20.6%

PHI

no live price

Book	WSH	PHI	Best edge
DraftKings	+370★	-457	+19.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

PHI vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 98 high confidence

Strikeouts

Zack WheelerPHI
7.5± 3.7medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
7.4± 3.3high
Cristopher SanchezPHI
6.3± 3.1high

Hits

Luis ArraezPHI
1.4± 1.2high
Trea TurnerPHI
1.3± 1.2high
Alec BohmPHI
1.0± 0.6high

Total bases

Bryce HarperPHI
2.0± 1.6high
Trea TurnerPHI
2.0± 2.2high
Luis ArraezPHI
1.9± 1.5high

RBIs

Alec BohmPHI
0.7± 1.2high
Bryan De La CruzPHI
0.7± 1.4low
Bryce HarperPHI
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Andrew PainterPHI
3.6± 2.8medium
Aaron NolaPHI
3.1± 1.7high
Miles MikolasWSH
2.9± 2.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

league avg

PHI

.766

OPS

◀

.719

.704

.327

OBP

◀

.318

.305

5.34

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.39

4.75

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.20

1.40

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.31

7.6

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 10 · PHI 4 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	R
WSH	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	6	10
PHI	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	4

Final play

“End of the 11th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Washington NationalsPhiladelphia Phillies

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. AbramsSS	.290	5	2	3	3	0	0	1
A. Ortiz1B	.273	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
D. CrewsRF	.221	5	1	1	0	0	1	1
D. LileLF	.243	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. RuizC	.266	3	0	1	1	0	1	1
J. TenaDH	.236	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Nunez2B	.235	5	0	0	2	0	1	1
J. Vivas3B	.236	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. YoungCF	.237	3	2	2	0	0	2	0
A. PinckneyLF	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
C. BeeterRP	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. MikolasSP	.000	0	1	0	1	0	0	0
B. LordRP	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. FordC	.179	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
A. Chaparro1B	.211	3	0	1	2	0	1	1
B. House3B	.232	4	2	1	1	1	0	2
Team		42	10	10	10	1	8	11

Player

.290

.273

.221

.243

.266

.236

.235

.236

.237

.000

.000

.000

.000

.179

.211

.232

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. IrvinSP	5.1	3	2	2	2	3	83
W. DionRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	6
Y. CruzRP	0.1	2	1	1	1	1	23
T. CosgroveRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	18
O. RibaltaRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	17
C. BeeterRP	1.0	0	1	0	1	1	18
B. LordRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
Team	11.0	5	4	3	6	5	175

Player

5.1

0.2

0.1

1.1

1.1

1.0

1.0

Team

11.0

175

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. SchwarberDH	.241	3	0	0	0	0	1	3
T. TurnerSS	.250	4	0	0	1	0	0	1
B. Harper1B	.252	3	0	0	0	0	2	0
L. Arraez2B	.333	5	1	1	1	1	0	0
A. Bohm3B	.227	4	1	1	0	0	1	0
B. MarshLF	.278	5	1	1	0	0	0	0
J.T. RealmutoC	.222	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. Stott2B	.257	2	0	1	1	0	2	0
J. CrawfordCF	.263	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
D. HillCF	.268	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
B. De La CruzRF	.429	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	4	5	4	1	6	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. PainterSP	4.0	3	1	1	1	4	63
T. MayzaRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	16
O. KerkeringRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
B. RaleyRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	2	23
J. BowlanRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	15
J. DuranRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	16
J. AlvaradoRP	1.0	0	1	0	2	1	19
C. KilianRP	0.1	1	5	4	2	1	19
C. ShugartRP	0.2	1	1	1	1	0	18
Team	11.0	10	10	8	8	11	199

Team

WSH

PHI

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

PHI vs WSH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PHI vs WSH.

3 sub-models, blended.