MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2DET

DET

86-73

CLE

86-73

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

30,942 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.5%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
62.1%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
62.2%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
62.4%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.13 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CLE vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.2± 3.6low
Parker MessickCLE
6.4± 2.1low
Jack FlahertyDET
5.5± 3.5low

Hits

Travis BazzanaCLE
1.1± 0.9high
Brayan RocchioCLE
1.0± 1.1high
Kevin McGonigleDET
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Travis BazzanaCLE
2.0± 2.1high
Dillon DinglerDET
1.7± 2.3high
Kyle ManzardoCLE
1.6± 2.5high

RBIs

Dillon DinglerDET
0.6± 0.8high
Angel MartinezCLE
0.5± 0.5high
Jose RamirezCLE
0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

Slade CecconiCLE
3.0± 2.5low
Jack FlahertyDET
2.8± 2.4low
Tanner BibeeCLE
2.7± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

DET 4 · CLE 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CLE +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
DET	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4
CLE	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
J. Jones★DH	1-3	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
SPRINT28.278
G. Torres★2B	1-5	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
W. Perez★RF	1-3	3	1	1	1	1	2	1
SPRINT27.969
S. Torkelson★1B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
R. Greene★LF	1-3	3	1	1	1	1	1	2
SPRINT2744
A. Ibanez★2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. Dingler★C	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT27.765
P. Meadows★CF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Baez★SS	2-4	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
SPRINT27.251
K. CarpenterRF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. MalloyRF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Z. McKinstry2B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team	8-35	35	4	8	4	3	5	10

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

1-3

1-5

1-3

0-4

1-3

0-2

1-4

0-3

2-4

0-1

0-1

1-2

Team

8-35

	Pitching
T. Melton★SP	3.2	2	1	1	2	1	0
B. HurterRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	0
T. KahnleRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. HoltonRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	0
K. FinneganRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	0
W. VestRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	0
Team	9.0	5	2	2	2	8	0

Pitching

Player

3.2

1.1

1.1

1.0

0.2

1.0

Team

9.0

	Batting
S. Kwan★CF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
SPRINT26.530
G. Valera★LF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Ramirez★3B	1-3	3	0	1	1	0	1	0
SPRINT27.251
K. Manzardo★1B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. Arias★SS	0-3	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
SPRINT26.530
A. Martinez★LF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Kayfus★LF	2-2	2	0	2	1	0	0	0
B. Rocchio★SS	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Hedges★C	2-3	3	1	2	0	0	0	1
SPRINT24.43
D. SchneemannCF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. NoelRF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. NaylorC	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1

Team	5-32	32	2	5	2	0	2	8

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI