Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Box Score — Sep 25, 2025

FINAL+2DET

DET

86-73

CLE

86-73

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

30,942 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.6%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
62.1%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
62.2%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.8%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.11 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CLE vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 108 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
8.1± 3.0high
Joey CantilloCLE
6.1± 2.2high
Troy MeltonDET
5.7± 2.4low

Hits

Max ClarkDET
1.5± 1.7low
Steven KwanCLE
1.3± 1.0high
Eduardo ValenciaDET
1.3± 1.8low

Total bases

Max ClarkDET
2.7± 3.5low
Eduardo ValenciaDET
2.6± 4.3low
Dillon DinglerDET
1.8± 1.9high

RBIs

Eduardo ValenciaDET
1.0± 2.2low
Gleyber TorresDET
0.9± 1.7high
Hao-Yu LeeDET
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Framber ValdezDET
2.6± 2.0high
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.5± 2.1high
Slade CecconiCLE
2.4± 1.6high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

DET

league avg

CLE

.731

OPS

◀

.720

.680

.319

OBP

◀

.318

.311

4.54

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.90

3.56

Team ERA

◀

4.18

3.75

1.21

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.26

8.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

DET 4 · CLE 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CLE +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
DET	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4
CLE	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. JonesDH	.276	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
G. Torres2B	.258	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
W. PerezRF	.247	3	1	1	1	1	2	1
S. Torkelson1B	.240	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
R. GreeneLF	.262	3	1	1	1	1	1	2
A. Ibanez2B	.228	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. DinglerC	.276	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
P. MeadowsCF	.210	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. BaezSS	.254	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
K. CarpenterRF	.252	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. MalloyRF	.212	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Z. McKinstry2B	.261	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		35	4	8	4	3	5	10

Player

.276

.258

.247

.240

.262

.228

.276

.210

.254

.252

.212

.261

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. MeltonSP	3.2	2	1	1	2	1	49
B. HurterRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	19
T. KahnleRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	13
T. HoltonRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	9
K. FinneganRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	10
W. VestRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	12
Team	9.0	5	2	2	2	8	112

Player

3.2

1.1

1.1

1.0

0.2

1.0

Team

9.0

112

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KwanLF	.275	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. ValeraLF	.222	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Ramirez3B	.284	3	0	1	1	0	1	0
K. Manzardo1B	.232	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. Arias3B	.218	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
A. MartinezLF	.226	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. KayfusLF	.229	2	0	2	1	0	0	0
B. RocchioSS	.234	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. HedgesC	.157	3	1	2	0	0	0	1
J. RodriguezRF	.167	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. SchneemannCF	.210	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. NoelRF	.154	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. NaylorC	.194	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	2	5	2	0	2	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. MessickSP	5.0	6	4	4	1	7	89
M. FestaRP	1.0	2	0	0	1	2	18
T. HerrinRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	21
K. AllardRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	19
Z. KentRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	12
Team	9.0	8	4	4	5	10	159

Team

DET

CLE

3 sub-models, blended.

CLE vs DET.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CLE vs DET.

3 sub-models, blended.