Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHX at ATL?

The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

PHX

12-19

PregameWed, 7:00 PM EDTAtlanta News First, Victory+ ATL, WNBA League Pass

ATL

18-11

ATS/ATL -5.5O/U/182.5ML/ATL-205

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Recent form

6-4

ATL +0.9 vs PHX -6.1 margin

ATL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Model rank

+128.1

ATL Elo vs PHX Elo

ATL owns the cleaner matchup rating, forcing PHX uphill early today again.

WNBAWed, Aug 58/5 - 7:00 PM EDTSeriesATL leads series 1-0VegasATL -5.5

Preview · WNBA

hoenix Mercury visit Atlanta Dream Wednesday at 8/5 - 7:00 PM EDT. PHX is 4-2 in their last 6. ATL is rolling — 4-1 in their last 5.

Vegas opened ATL as a 5.5-point favorite with the total at 182.5. ATL's moneyline implies a 67% break-even, PHX the inverse.

For bettors: the ATL side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 182.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

Team stats

PHX

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

FG %

Season series

ATL leads series 1-0

May 24

PHX80@

ATL82

Aug 5

PHX@

ATLtoday

Aug 23

ATL@

PHXupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

182.5

High-scoring · +17.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.1h

Moneyline

PHX+17037%

ATL-20567%

13· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -5.5↗SpreadBet ATL -5.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

182.5

+5.0 since open

Scouting report

PHX @ ATL

8/5 - 7:00 PM EDT

Rest going in

PHXStandard

1 day

last game Aug 3

ATLStandard

1 day

last game Aug 3

Model edge vs market

Strong edge

Spread

Market

ATL -5.5

Model

ATL -9.3

Edge

+3.8 pts

Total

Market

182.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

ATL -205

Model

ATL

Edge

aligned

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

PHXmetricATL

12-19

Record

18-11

Conf rank

-3.0

Pt diff

+3.2

Streak

4-6

Last 10

6-4

61.1

Power score

70.4

Power rank

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Betting line

ATL -5.5·O/U 182.5·PHX +170/ATL -205

DraftKings · via ESPN

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Scouting report · pre-game

ATL vs PHX.

ATL is 6-4 recently; PHX is 4-6.

74.7%

model · ATL win prob

Recent form

ATL6–4+0.9
PHX4–6-6.1

Situational

ATL2d rest
PHX2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. ATL has 0 straight road games; PHX has 1.

Model angle

+10.1ppon ATL

ATL's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. Line steam is the main caution flag.

▲Model confidence+1.5pp
▼Line steam-0.8pp
▲Venue split+0.7pp

Players to watch

Kahleah CopperPHX
20.4points · ±8.3
Kahleah Copper · 20.4 pts · last-10 20.4 vs season 20.5.
Allisha GrayATL
19.0points · ±5.8
Allisha Gray · 19 pts · last-10 19.8 vs season 17.9.
Angel ReeseATL
16.1points · ±7.7
Angel Reese · 16.1 pts · last-10 16.8 vs season 15.1.

Head-to-head · 4-0 · last 4

ATL is 4-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2025-07-24ATL @ PHX90–79
2025-08-01PHX @ ATL72–95
2025-08-10ATL @ PHX74–66
2026-05-24PHX @ ATL80–82

Line move

open -225→-205toward PHX

The market has moved 2pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

74.3%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
75.8%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
77.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
73.8%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.32 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like ATL.

ATL's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. Line steam is the main caution flag.

+10.1

pp edge · ATL

-1.89

CLV pp · steam

4.5u · large

on ATL

73.1%

±9.8pp band

4.49u large — +5.9pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+8.6pp

-1.5pp post-cal

Kelly

18.0%

4.5% sized

Decimal

1.49

+5.9pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 10.1pp · ATL over PHX

▲
Model confidence90% conf
ATL clears the model's lock threshold.
+1.5pp
▼
Line steam71% conf
The market moved 1.9pp away from ATL since open.
-0.8pp
▲
Venue split70% conf
ATL's venue form is 13.6pp stronger in the recent sample.
+0.7pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
ATL has taken 3 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.6pp

Open price

-225

Close price

-205

Open no-vig

66.4%

Close no-vig

64.5%

Market faded the model hard

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHX at ATL?: The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+10.1pp

best edge · ATL · DraftKings

PHX

no live price

ATL

★ best

-205DraftKings

edge +10.1pp · implied 64.5%

Book	PHX	ATL	Best edge
DraftKings	+170	-205★	+10.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

ATL vs PHX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 85 high confidence

Points

Kelsey PlumPHX
22.8± 12.8medium
Kahleah CopperPHX
20.4± 8.3high
Allisha GrayATL
19.0± 5.8high

Rebounds

Angel ReeseATL
11.2± 3.6high
Alyssa ThomasPHX
7.8± 2.9high
Brionna JonesATL
7.0± 2.5low

Assists

Alyssa ThomasPHX
8.4± 4.1high
Jordin CanadaATL
8.3± 2.0high
Kelsey PlumPHX
6.3± 3.1medium

Blocks

Natasha MackPHX
1.1± 0.9high
Rhyne HowardATL
0.9± 1.3high
DeWanna BonnerPHX
0.8± 1.0high

Steals

Jordin CanadaATL
2.2± 0.9high
Rhyne HowardATL
2.2± 1.6high
Angel ReeseATL
1.8± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Phoenix MercuryAtlanta Dream

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop

Phoenix Mercury at Atlanta Dream

ATL vs PHX.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like ATL.

Where to bet this game.

ATL vs PHX.