Phoenix Mercury at Atlanta Dream
PHX
5-12
ATL
11-4
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
hoenix Mercury visit Atlanta Dream Wednesday at 8/5 - 7:00 PM EDT. ATL arrives on a 3-game win streak (6-2 in their last 8).
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
PHX
Away
Stat
ATL
Home
42
FG %
44
Season series
ATL leads series 1-0
PHX80@ATL82PHX@ATLtodayATL@PHXupcomingScouting report
PHX @ ATL
Tale of the tape
5-12
Record
11-4
#7
Conf rank
#1
-3.4
Pt diff
+7.1
W1
Streak
W3
3-7
Last 10
7-3
53.6
Sched ahead
51.8
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
42.8%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs PHX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX19.3± 10.1medium
- Rhyne HowardATL18.5± 9.4medium
- Allisha GrayATL18.2± 5.8medium
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL11.8± 4.2medium
- Natasha MackPHX8.3± 3.5medium
- Alyssa ThomasPHX6.6± 3.5medium
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.5± 2.7medium
- Jordin CanadaATL6.8± 3.0medium
- Rhyne HowardATL3.3± 1.9medium
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.2medium
- Rhyne HowardATL0.8± 1.1medium
- Angel ReeseATL0.7± 0.8medium
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.9± 2.1medium
- Jordin CanadaATL1.9± 1.8medium
- Allisha GrayATL1.6± 1.3medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
PHX
league avg
ATL
42.3%
FG%
44.6
▶44.3%
32.3%
3PT %
33.4
▶33.4%
81.8
PPG
85.7
▶88.6
18.9
Assists / G
18.0
▶19.9
13.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.9