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    -5.8ppmedium
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    -5.6ppmedium
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    +36.2pplow
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1BAL
TB

TB

77-82

5
6
BAL

BAL

75-84

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
16,777 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

TB 5 · BAL 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BAL +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TB0030020005
BAL0010100316

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 64-42
62%Last 30 · 327-201
Receipts →
MLB·Thu, Sep 25·Final/SeriesBAL wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles held off Tampa Bay Rays, 6–5. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Tristan Gray

Tristan Gray

3B

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Ryan Mountcastle

Ryan Mountcastle

1B

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TB77-82
5
6
BAL75-84
TB77-82·BAL75-84
TB

TB

77-82

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. MangumJ. Mangum★LF
3-55030001
SPRINT2993
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
1-22110000
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
2-55120000
SPRINT25.716
C. MorelC. Morel★1B
1-55012001
R. PalaciosR. Palacios★2B
1-33111011
N. FortesN. Fortes★C
2-44020000
C. WilliamsC. Williams★SS
1-33010011
E. PereiraE. Pereira★RF
0-22000001
BB. Seymour★1B
2-44121002
H. FeducciaH. FeducciaC
0-33000002
T. GrayT. Gray3B
2-22121000
SPRINT26.428
Team15-38385155029
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. RasmussenD. Rasmussen★SP
2.1200230
J. ScholtensJ. ScholtensRP
5.1444291
K. KellyK. KellyRP
0.1322012
Team8.09664133
BAL

BAL

75-84

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
D. BeaversD. Beavers★RF
1-44211111
SPRINT29.194
J. WestburgJ. Westburg★3B
0-44000001
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
2-44020001
SPRINT28.175
R. MountcastleR. Mountcastle★1B
2-33222110
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
2-44120002
SPRINT26.530
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
0-33000011
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
1-33112111
SPRINT2872
A. JacksonA. Jackson★C
0-33000003
J. MateoJ. Mateo★SS
0-33000002
A. RutschmanA. RutschmanC
1-11010000
D. CarlsonD. CarlsonLF
0-11000001
Team9-33336953413
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. PovichC. Povich★SP
5.21055240
Y. HiraldoY. HiraldoRP
0.1200010
K. StrowdK. StrowdRP
1.0000020
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
1.0300020
K. AkinK. AkinRP
1.0000000
Team9.01555290

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TB

  • J. Scholtens
    92 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      38%·95.0 mph·26% whiff
    • SL
      28%·87.4 mph·21% whiff
    • ST
      26%·80.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      8%·85.0 mph·33% whiff
  • D. Rasmussen
    57 pitches·21% CSW
    • FC
      37%·90.1 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      37%·96.4 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      18%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      5%·79.4 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      4%·83.7 mph·100% whiff
  • K. Kelly
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • FC
      38%·88.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      38%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·92.8 mph·100% whiff

BAL

  • C. Povich
    99 pitches·19% CSW
    • CU
      39%·78.6 mph·26% whiff
    • FF
      35%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·84.0 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      4%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      2%·91.1 mph·— whiff
  • R. Garcia
    26 pitches·31% CSW
    • CH
      46%·85.6 mph·57% whiff
    • FF
      35%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      15%·86.0 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      4%·83.3 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Strowd
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • ST
      40%·84.0 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      30%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      20%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·96.6 mph·— whiff
  • K. Akin
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      70%·94.6 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      30%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Hiraldo
    9 pitches·44% CSW
    • FS
      89%·87.2 mph·57% whiff
    • FF
      11%·93.7 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

15

Hits

9

5

Runs

6

1

Errors

0

Current series

BAL wins series 4-2

Jun 27TBTB8@BALBAL22
Jun 28TBTB11@BALBAL3
Jun 29TBTB1@BALBAL5
Sep 23TBTB0@BALBAL6
Sep 24TBTB6@BALBAL2
Sep 25TBTB5@BALBAL6today

Season series

BAL wins series 7-6

Jun 16BALBAL1@TBTB7
Jun 17BALBAL5@TBTB1
Jun 18BALBAL8@TBTB12
Jun 19BALBAL4@TBTB1
Jun 27TBTB8@BALBAL22
Jun 28TBTB11@BALBAL3
Jun 29TBTB1@BALBAL5
Jul 18BALBAL1@TBTB11
Jul 19BALBAL3@TBTB4
Jul 20BALBAL5@TBTB3
Sep 23TBTB0@BALBAL6
Sep 24TBTB6@BALBAL2
Sep 25TBTB5@BALBAL6today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 38pp · Bottom 8th Inning

TBTB
T. Gray

T. Gray

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

J. Scholtens

J. Scholtens

RP

Top reliever

5.1 IP · 9 K · 4 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

BALBAL
R. Mountcastle

R. Mountcastle

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

C. Povich

C. Povich

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 4 K · 5 ER · 10 H · 2 BB

How it ended

BAL beat TB 6-5. Mayo's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (38pp).

Win probability

BAL vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBTop 3rd Inning · 2-0
+14pp→ 85% WP

Morel · doubled to left, B. Seymour scored and Díaz scored, Caminero to third.

BALBottom 8th Inning · 5-5
+38pp→ 48% WP

Mayo · homered to left (413 feet), J. Jackson scored.

BALBottom 9th Inning · 5-6
+35pp→ 100% WP

Beavers · homered to right (417 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TB0030020005
BAL0010100316

Period scoring

TB won 2 · BAL won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

3
1

Inn 3

Morel 2

Mountcastle 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Mountcastle 1

2
0

Inn 6

Gray 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
3

Inn 8

Mayo 2

0
1

Inn 9

Beavers 1

TB
BAL

Play-by-play · 603 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    ·

    TB 5·BAL 6

  2. B9

    Beavers homered to right (417 feet).BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TB 5·BAL 6

    +35pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 5·BAL 6

  4. B9

    Kevin Kelly pitches to Dylan Beavers

    ·

    TB 5·BAL 6

  5. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    TB 5·BAL 5

  6. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    TB 5·BAL 5

  7. T9

    ·

    TB 5·BAL 5

  8. T9

    Palacios lined out to center.

    ·

    TB 5·BAL 5

    +4pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 5·BAL 5

  10. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 5·BAL 5

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 5·BAL 5

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TB 5·BAL 5

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TB 5·BAL 5

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 5·BAL 5

  15. T9

    Keegan Akin pitches to Richie Palacios

    ·

    TB 5·BAL 5

  16. T9

    ·

    TB 5·BAL 5

  17. T9

    Morel lined out to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TB 5·BAL 5

    +6pp

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 5·BAL 5

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 5·BAL 5

  20. T9

    Keegan Akin pitches to Christopher Morel

    ·

    TB 5·BAL 5

  21. T9

    ·

    TB 5·BAL 5

  22. T9

    Caminero grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TB 5·BAL 5

    +7pp

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 5·BAL 5

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TB 5·BAL 5

  25. T9

    Keegan Akin pitches to Junior Caminero

    ·

    TB 5·BAL 5

  26. T9

    Akin relieved Garcia

    ·

    TB 5·BAL 5

  27. T9

    Carlson in left field.

    TB 5·BAL 5

  28. T9

    Rutschman catching.

    TB 5·BAL 5

  29. T9

    J. Jackson at third base.

    ·

    TB 5·BAL 5

  30. T9

    Westburg at second base.

    TB 5·BAL 5

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

5

Runs

6

15

Hits

9

1

Errors

0

17

TB

21

0

HR

3

2

BB

4

9

K

13

23

LOB

15

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 20, 25sim 98
    156
    6(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 19, 25sim 97
    1510
    6(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 97
    174
    11(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 26, 25sim 96
    212
    28(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 23, 25sim 95
    50
    13(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 17, 25sim 95
    265
    29(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 11 players in cohort
  • Dylan BeaversBAL · RF
    SPRINT29.194
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Colton CowserBAL · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Coby MayoBAL · 3B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

BAL vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    2.0± 2.0high
  • Victor Mesa Jr.TB
    2.0± 2.3low

RBIs

  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Chris BassittBAL
    2.7± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.9%

ensemble · BAL favored

  • Elo Static

    54.4%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.5%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.2%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.32 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.