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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5KC
KC

KC

80-79

9
4
LAA

LAA

71-88

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California
35,752 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

KC 9 · LAA 4 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked KC +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
KC2010100149
LAA0100010204

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 62-39
62%Last 30 · 323-200
Receipts →
MLB·Thu, Sep 25·Final/SeriesKC wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Kansas City Royals went into Los Angeles Angels and beat them, 9–4.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

KC · top performer

KC
Bobby Witt Jr.

Bobby Witt Jr.

SS

1.600OPS

5-4

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

LAA · top performer

LAA
Luis Rengifo

Luis Rengifo

3B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Final
KC80-79
9
4
LAA71-88
KC80-79·LAA71-88
KC

KC

80-79

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
1-44210011
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
4-55241000
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
1-44213110
SPRINT25.411
S. PerezS. Perez★C
1-44113001
SPRINT241
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
1-33011021
R. GrichukR. Grichuk★RF
0-33000002
C. JensenC. Jensen★C
0-44000000
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
0-33000002
M. MasseyM. Massey★2B
2-44120001
SPRINT26.838
A. FrazierA. Frazier2B
1-22011000
JJ. RaveRF
0-11000001
Team11-37379119149
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. LorenzenM. Lorenzen★SP
5.2522092
J. SchreiberJ. SchreiberRP
1.1000010
S. CruzS. CruzRP
1.0222011
L. AvilaL. AvilaRP
1.0000020
Team9.07440133
LAA

LAA

71-88

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
1-44111101
SPRINT25.920
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
1-44112102
SPRINT28.688
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada★3B
0-44000002
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
2-44121102
SPRINT27.867
C. TaylorC. Taylor★CF
0-44000003
L. O'HoppeL. O'Hoppe★C
1-44010001
SPRINT27.251
C. MooreC. Moore★2B
0-44000001
D. GuzmanD. Guzman★SS
1-33010001
B. TeodosioB. Teodosio★LF
0-22000000
L. RengifoL. Rengifo3B
1-11110000
SPRINT27.148
Team7-34344743013
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. FarrisM. Farris★RP
5.0544251
C. BrogdonC. BrogdonRP
2.0000030
R. ZeferjahnR. ZeferjahnRP
1.0211100
S. BachmanS. BachmanRP
1.0444110
Team9.01199491

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

7

9

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

KC wins series 2-1

Sep 24KCKC8@LAALAA4
Sep 25KCKC2@LAALAA3
Sep 26KCKC9@LAALAA4today

Season series

Series tied 3-3

Sep 2LAALAA5@KCKC1
Sep 3LAALAA4@KCKC3
Sep 4LAALAA3@KCKC4
Sep 24KCKC8@LAALAA4
Sep 25KCKC2@LAALAA3
Sep 26KCKC9@LAALAA4today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowKC ↔ LAA

Biggest swing: 16pp · Top 1st Inning

KCKC
B. Witt Jr.

B. Witt Jr.

SS

Batter of the game

4-for-5 · 2 R · 1.600 OPS

M. Lorenzen

M. Lorenzen

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 9 K · 2 ER · 5 H

LAALAA
L. Rengifo

L. Rengifo

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

M. Farris

M. Farris

RP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

KC beat LAA 9-4.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

LAA vs KC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+16pp→ 69% WP

Pasquantino · homered to right (391 feet), Garcia scored.

LAABottom 8th Inning · 5-4
+15pp→ 24% WP

Trout · homered to center (406 feet), Rengifo scored.

KCTop 9th Inning · 8-4
+12pp→ 99% WP

Perez · doubled to center, Pasquantino scored, Tolbert scored and Witt Jr. scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
KC2010100149
LAA0100010204

Period scoring

KC won 4 · LAA won 3

2
0

Inn 1

Pasquantino 2

0
1

Inn 2

Adell 1

1
0

Inn 3

Pasquantino 1

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Jr. 1

0
1

Inn 6

Schanuel 1

0
0

Inn 7

1
2

Inn 8

Frazier 1

Trout 2

4
0

Inn 9

Perez 3

KC
LAA

Play-by-play · 588 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    KC 9·LAA 4

  2. B9

    ·

    KC 9·LAA 4

  3. B9

    Moore grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    KC 9·LAA 4

  4. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 9·LAA 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    KC 9·LAA 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    KC 9·LAA 4

  7. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 9·LAA 4

  8. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 9·LAA 4

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    KC 9·LAA 4

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 9·LAA 4

  11. B9

    Luinder Avila pitches to Christian Moore

    ·

    KC 9·LAA 4

  12. B9

    ·

    KC 9·LAA 4

  13. B9

    O'Hoppe struck out swinging.

    ·

    KC 9·LAA 4

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    KC 9·LAA 4

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 9·LAA 4

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 9·LAA 4

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    KC 9·LAA 4

  18. B9

    Luinder Avila pitches to Logan O'Hoppe

    ·

    KC 9·LAA 4

  19. B9

    ·

    KC 9·LAA 4

  20. B9

    Taylor struck out swinging.

    ·

    KC 9·LAA 4

    −0.5pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    KC 9·LAA 4

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    KC 9·LAA 4

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 9·LAA 4

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    KC 9·LAA 4

  25. B9

    Luinder Avila pitches to Chris Taylor

    ·

    KC 9·LAA 4

  26. B9

    Avila relieved Cruz

    ·

    KC 9·LAA 4

  27. B9

    Tolbert in left field.

    KC 9·LAA 4

  28. B9

    Frazier at second base.

    KC 9·LAA 4

  29. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    KC 9·LAA 4

  30. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    KC 9·LAA 4

Team stats

KC

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

9

Runs

4

11

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

17

TB

16

1

HR

3

4

BB

0

9

K

13

13

LOB

5

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 13 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688

Player projections

LAA vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low

Hits

  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    0.9± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    1.7± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    0.6± 0.9high
  • Wade MecklerLAA
    0.6± 1.5low

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    2.9± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.4%

ensemble · KC favored

  • Elo Static

    45.2%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    42.8%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    45.7%

    P(LAA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.26 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 24, 25sim 99
    78
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 96
    257
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 95
    18
    4(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 94
    712
    4(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 94
    296
    9(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 93
    186
    3(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs