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FINAL+8LAD
LAD

LAD

90-69

8
0
ARI

ARI

80-79

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
34,952 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 8 · ARI 0 (by 8)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ARI +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD0404000008
ARI0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Thu, Sep 25·Final/SeriesLAD win series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers went into Arizona Diamondbacks and beat them, 8–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAD · top performer

LAD
Freddie Freeman

Freddie Freeman

1B

3.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

ARI · top performer

ARI
Alek Thomas

Alek Thomas

CF

1.000OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAD90-69
8
0
ARI80-79
LAD90-69·ARI80-79
LAD

LAD

90-69

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
1-55112101
SPRINT2744
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
1-44012011
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
1-33110000
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
2-33223210
SPRINT24.74
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
1-44111112
SPRINT28.175
M. ConfortoM. Conforto★RF
0-44100011
M. RojasM. Rojas★SS
1-55010001
E. HernándezE. Hernández★1B
2-55220001
D. RushingD. Rushing★C
1-44010001
A. CallA. CallLF
1-22010001
H. KimH. KimSS
0-11000001
Team11-404081184410
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Y. YamamotoY. Yamamoto★SP
6.0400270
T. ScottT. ScottRP
1.0000010
W. KleinW. KleinRP
1.0100020
A. BandaA. BandaRP
1.0000020
Team9.05002120
ARI

ARI

80-79

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
1-44010002
SPRINT26.838
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
1-44010001
SPRINT26.225
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
0-44000002
G. MorenoG. Moreno★C
0-44000002
AA. Del Castillo★DH
1-44010001
SPRINT26.326
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
1-33010011
SPRINT28.175
A. ThomasA. Thomas★CF
1-22010001
SPRINT27.867
T. TawaT. Tawa★LF
0-22000012
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★LF
0-22000000
J. BarrosaJ. BarrosaCF
0-22000000
I. VargasI. Vargas1B
0-11000000
Team5-32320500212
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. BeeksJ. Beeks★RP
1.0111011
N. CrismattN. CrismattSP
3.0775223
A. PopeA. PopeRP
2.0200110
T. RashiT. RashiRP
3.0100160
Team9.011864104

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAD

  • Y. Yamamoto
    94 pitches·34% CSW
    • FS
      27%·91.0 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      26%·76.7 mph·55% whiff
    • FF
      20%·95.7 mph·11% whiff
    • FC
      15%·90.7 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      7%·95.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      5%·85.9 mph·75% whiff
  • T. Scott
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      55%·97.6 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      45%·90.3 mph·43% whiff
  • W. Klein
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      36%·99.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      29%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      21%·92.3 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      14%·90.7 mph·— whiff
  • A. Banda
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      50%·86.3 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      25%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      8%·98.0 mph·0% whiff

ARI

  • N. Crismatt
    72 pitches·26% CSW
    • CH
      40%·81.2 mph·11% whiff
    • FF
      29%·89.2 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      21%·88.7 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      10%·73.8 mph·50% whiff
  • T. Rashi
    51 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      63%·90.1 mph·23% whiff
    • FS
      24%·84.7 mph·22% whiff
    • SL
      8%·82.6 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      6%·74.4 mph·— whiff
  • A. Pope
    36 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      53%·94.1 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      25%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      17%·81.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·92.6 mph·— whiff
  • J. Beeks
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      77%·93.9 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      15%·83.3 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      8%·88.4 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

5

8

Runs

0

0

Errors

2

Current series

LAD win series 4-3

May 9LADLAD3@ARIARI5
May 10LADLAD14@ARIARI11
May 11LADLAD0@ARIARI3
May 11LADLAD8@ARIARI1
Sep 24LADLAD4@ARIARI5
Sep 25LADLAD5@ARIARI4
Sep 25LADLAD8@ARIARI0today

Season series

LAD win series 7-6

May 9LADLAD3@ARIARI5
May 10LADLAD14@ARIARI11
May 11LADLAD0@ARIARI3
May 11LADLAD8@ARIARI1
May 20ARIARI9@LADLAD5
May 21ARIARI3@LADLAD4
May 22ARIARI1@LADLAD3
Aug 30ARIARI3@LADLAD0
Aug 31ARIARI6@LADLAD1
Aug 31ARIARI4@LADLAD5
Sep 24LADLAD4@ARIARI5
Sep 25LADLAD5@ARIARI4
Sep 25LADLAD8@ARIARI0today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ ARI

Biggest swing: 11pp · Top 2nd Inning

LADLAD
F. Freeman

F. Freeman

1B

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-3 · 2 HR · 3.417 OPS

Y. Yamamoto

Y. Yamamoto

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

ARIARI
A. Thomas

A. Thomas

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.000 OPS

T. Rashi

T. Rashi

RP

Top reliever

3.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 1 BB

How it ended

LAD beat ARI 8-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ARI vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+10pp→ 68% WP

Freeman · homered to right center (411 feet).

LADTop 2nd Inning · 4-0
+11pp→ 89% WP

Betts · singled to left, Conforto scored and E. Hernández scored, Rushing to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD0404000008
ARI0000000000

Period scoring

LAD won 2 · ARI won 0

0
0

Inn 1

4
0

Inn 2

Betts 2

0
0

Inn 3

4
0

Inn 4

Ohtani 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

LAD
ARI

Play-by-play · 606 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    LAD 8·ARI 0

  2. B9

    ·

    LAD 8·ARI 0

  3. B9

    Barrosa grounded out to third.

    ·

    LAD 8·ARI 0

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 8·ARI 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAD 8·ARI 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    LAD 8·ARI 0

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 8·ARI 0

  8. B9

    Anthony Banda pitches to Jorge Barrosa

    ·

    LAD 8·ARI 0

  9. B9

    ·

    LAD 8·ARI 0

  10. B9

    Alexander struck out looking.

    ·

    LAD 8·ARI 0

  11. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    LAD 8·ARI 0

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 8·ARI 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 8·ARI 0

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 8·ARI 0

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    LAD 8·ARI 0

  16. B9

    Anthony Banda pitches to Blaze Alexander

    ·

    LAD 8·ARI 0

  17. B9

    ·

    LAD 8·ARI 0

  18. B9

    Del Castillo struck out swinging.

    ·

    LAD 8·ARI 0

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 8·ARI 0

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 8·ARI 0

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAD 8·ARI 0

  22. B9

    Anthony Banda pitches to Adrian Del Castillo

    ·

    LAD 8·ARI 0

  23. B9

    Banda relieved Klein

    ·

    LAD 8·ARI 0

  24. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    LAD 8·ARI 0

  25. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    LAD 8·ARI 0

  26. T9

    ·

    LAD 8·ARI 0

  27. T9

    E. Hernández struck out swinging.

    · ·

    LAD 8·ARI 0

  28. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 8·ARI 0

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 8·ARI 0

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 8·ARI 0

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

8

Runs

0

11

Hits

5

0

Errors

2

24

TB

6

4

HR

0

4

BB

2

10

K

12

23

LOB

11

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Hyeseong KimLAD · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL · 3B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

ARI vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low
  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    5.9± 3.0low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.3± 2.6high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Zac GallenARI
    2.9± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.9%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    50.8%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    49.2%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.0%

    P(ARI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.15 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 24, 25sim 99
    194
    29(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 18, 25sim 98
    132
    18(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 97
    195
    29(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 3, 25sim 96
    107
    18(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 17, 25sim 95
    135
    18(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 94
    211
    25(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs