Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Box Score — Sep 25, 2025

FINAL+8LAD

LAD

90-69

ARI

80-79

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona

34,952 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.9%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
50.8%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.2%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.6%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ARI vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

129

projections · 101 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tarik SkubalLAD
7.5± 2.8medium
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.1± 2.4high
Kris BubicLAD
5.7± 3.6low

Hits

James McCannARI
1.5± 1.2high
Freddie FreemanLAD
1.4± 0.8high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.4± 1.0high

Total bases

Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.8± 3.0high
James McCannARI
2.5± 2.5high
Geraldo PerdomoARI
1.9± 2.0high

RBIs

James McCannARI
1.2± 1.3high
Gabriel MorenoARI
1.0± 0.8high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
2.9± 2.0high
Kris BubicLAD
2.6± 2.5low
Roki SasakiLAD
2.6± 2.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAD

league avg

ARI

.771

OPS

◀

.719

.709

.339

OBP

◀

.318

.315

5.08

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.58

3.74

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.20

1.16

WHIP

◀

1.30

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

6.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 8 · ARI 0 (by 8)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ARI +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAD	0	4	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	8
ARI	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. OhtaniDH	.280	5	1	1	2	1	0	1
M. BettsSS	.262	4	0	1	2	0	1	1
T. HernándezLF	.247	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
F. Freeman1B	.293	3	2	2	3	2	1	0
A. PagesCF	.276	4	1	1	1	1	1	2
M. ConfortoDH	.200	4	1	0	0	0	1	1
M. Rojas2B	.262	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
E. Hernández1B	.195	5	2	2	0	0	0	1
D. RushingC	.189	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. CallLF	.261	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
H. KimSS	.281	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		40	8	11	8	4	4	10

Player

.280

.262

.247

.293

.276

.200

.262

.195

.189

.261

.281

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. YamamotoSP	6.0	4	0	0	2	7	94
T. ScottRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	20
W. KleinRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	14
A. BandaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	12
Team	9.0	5	0	0	2	12	140

Player

6.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

140

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. PerdomoSS	.289	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
K. Marte2B	.283	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. CarrollRF	.260	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. MorenoC	.284	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. Del CastilloDH	.246	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. Alexander3B	.233	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
A. ThomasCF	.251	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. TawaLF	.204	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
J. McCarthyCF	.204	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. KaiserSS	.133	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. LawlarLF	.164	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. BarrosaCF	.141	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
I. Vargas1B	.260	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	0	5	0	0	2	12

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BeeksRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	13
N. CrismattSP	3.0	7	7	5	2	2	72
A. PopeRP	2.0	2	0	0	1	1	36
T. RashiRP	3.0	1	0	0	1	6	51
Team	9.0	11	8	6	4	10	172

Team

LAD

ARI

3 sub-models, blended.

ARI vs LAD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ARI vs LAD.

3 sub-models, blended.