Houston Astros vs Athletics: Final Score & Box Score — Sep 25, 2025

FINAL+6HOU

HOU

85-74

115

ATH

75-84

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California

8,293 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.7%

ensemble · ATH favored

Elo Static
55.8%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.1%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.3%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.76 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ATH vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Peter LambertHOU
5.9± 2.3medium
Gage JumpATH
5.8± 3.0low
Hunter BrownHOU
5.5± 2.8low

Hits

Jeremy PenaHOU
1.5± 1.0high
Yainer DiazHOU
1.2± 1.6high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

Jeremy PenaHOU
2.8± 2.4high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.1± 2.3high
Christian WalkerHOU
1.9± 1.5high

RBIs

Jeremy PenaHOU
0.8± 1.1high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.7± 0.9high
Christian WalkerHOU
0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

Ronel BlancoHOU
4.0± 1.4low
Jack PerkinsATH
3.1± 1.7high
Gage JumpATH
2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

league avg

ATH

.738

OPS

◀

.720

.322

OBP

.318

.320

4.62

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.35

4.60

Team ERA

◀

4.18

5.42

1.36

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.50

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 11 · ATH 5 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATH +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
HOU	2	3	0	2	2	0	1	1	0	11
ATH	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	2	5

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Altuve2B	.265	3	2	2	2	0	1	1
I. Paredes3B	.257	3	1	2	2	0	0	0
C. CorreaSS	.287	3	1	1	2	0	2	1
V. CaratiniC	.262	4	0	1	1	0	1	1
C. Walker1B	.236	5	1	2	3	1	0	1
J. SanchezRF	.191	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Z. ColeLF	.243	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
T. TrammellCF	.202	4	2	1	0	0	1	2
M. DubonLF	.246	3	3	1	1	0	2	0
R. Urias3B	.238	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
Y. DiazC	.253	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. SmithRF	.237	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		39	11	12	11	1	7	10

Player

.265

.257

.287

.262

.236

.191

.243

.202

.246

.238

.253

.237

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. ValdezSP	7.0	7	1	1	2	10	92
E. De Los SantosRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	18
N. HernandezRP	0.0	2	2	2	1	0	10
B. AbreuRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
Team	9.0	12	5	5	3	12	132

Player

7.0

1.0

0.0

1.0

Team

9.0

132

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. LangeliersC	.271	5	1	4	0	0	0	1
J. WilsonSS	.313	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. SoderstromLF	.278	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. RookerDH	.263	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. ThomasRF	.230	4	1	1	0	0	1	2
N. Kurtz1B	.293	5	2	3	3	2	0	2
D. HernaizSS	.230	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. Harris3B	.284	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
W. MacIverC	.184	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. BledayLF	.212	2	1	1	1	0	0	1
M. Muncy3B	.214	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. SchuemannLF	.200	3	0	0	1	0	0	0
Team		39	5	12	5	2	3	12

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J.T. GinnSP	3.2	6	7	7	3	4	81
B. BassoRP	1.0	3	2	2	3	1	44
O. BidoRP	2.1	2	1	1	1	3	37
S. McGoughRP	2.0	1	1	1	0	2	29
Team	9.0	12	11	11	7	10	191

Team

HOU

ATH

3 sub-models, blended.

ATH vs HOU.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATH vs HOU.

3 sub-models, blended.