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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6HOU
HOU

HOU

85-74

11
5
ATH

ATH

75-84

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California
8,293 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 11 · ATH 5 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATH +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU23022011011
ATH0000010225

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 28, 25sim 97
    294
    25(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 96
    114
    12(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 95
    2813
    5(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 94
    175
    11(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 2, 25sim 94
    2112
    6(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 1, 25sim 92
    2110
    6(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Thu, Sep 25·Final/SeriesATH wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Houston Astros went into Athletics and beat them, 11–5. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Jose Altuve

Jose Altuve

2B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

ATH · top performer

ATH
Nick Kurtz

Nick Kurtz

1B

2.400OPS

5-3

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Athletics · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
HOU85-74
11
5
ATH75-84
HOU85-74·ATH75-84
HOU

HOU

85-74

11
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
2-33222011
SPRINT27.867
I. ParedesI. Paredes★3B
2-33122000
SPRINT25.18
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
1-33112021
SPRINT27.251
V. CaratiniV. Caratini★C
1-44011011
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
2-55123101
SPRINT25.920
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
0-22000001
Z. ColeZ. Cole★LF
1-55110002
T. TrammellT. Trammell★CF
1-44210012
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
1-33311020
SPRINT26.428
R. UriasR. Urias3B
1-22010000
Y. DiazY. DiazC
0-22000000
C. SmithC. SmithRF
0-33000001
Team12-39391112111710
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
F. ValdezF. Valdez★SP
7.07112101
E. De Los SantosE. De Los SantosRP
1.0322011
B. AbreuB. AbreuRP
1.0000010
Team9.012553122
ATH

ATH

75-84

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
4-55140001
SPRINT28.586
J. WilsonJ. Wilson★SS
0-33000001
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
0-33000001
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
0-22000002
C. ThomasC. Thomas★RF
1-44110012
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
3-55233202
SPRINT26.632
D. HernaizD. Hernaiz★SS
1-44010000
B. HarrisB. Harris★3B
1-44010002
W. MacIverW. MacIver★C
1-33010010
J. BledayJ. BledayLF
1-22111001
SPRINT27.457
M. MuncyM. Muncy3B
0-11000010
M. SchuemannM. SchuemannSS
0-33001000
Team12-393951252312
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J.T. GinnJ.T. Ginn★SP
3.2677340
BB. BassoRP
1.0322310
O. BidoO. BidoRP
2.1211130
S. McGoughS. McGoughRP
2.0111021
Team9.01211117101

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

  • F. Valdez
    92 pitches·36% CSW
    • SI
      46%·94.0 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      45%·79.9 mph·62% whiff
    • CH
      10%·89.6 mph·17% whiff
  • E. De Los Santos
    18 pitches·39% CSW
    • FF
      56%·95.6 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      33%·87.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·88.4 mph·— whiff
  • B. Abreu
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      58%·86.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      42%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
  • N. Hernandez
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • SL
      70%·82.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      30%·90.9 mph·— whiff

ATH

  • J.T. Ginn
    81 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      47%·91.7 mph·19% whiff
    • SL
      28%·83.8 mph·45% whiff
    • FC
      23%·90.4 mph·11% whiff
    • CH
      1%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Basso
    44 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      48%·92.7 mph·11% whiff
    • CU
      20%·77.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      20%·88.2 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      9%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      2%·92.7 mph·— whiff
  • O. Bido
    37 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      46%·95.9 mph·8% whiff
    • SL
      30%·85.7 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      22%·90.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      3%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
  • S. McGough
    29 pitches·24% CSW
    • FS
      38%·84.4 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      34%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·86.6 mph·33% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

12

11

Runs

5

1

Errors

0

Current series

ATH wins series 4-3

Jun 17HOUHOU1@ATHATH3
Jun 18HOUHOU13@ATHATH3
Jun 19HOUHOU11@ATHATH4
Jun 20HOUHOU4@ATHATH6
Sep 24HOUHOU1@ATHATH5
Sep 25HOUHOU0@ATHATH6
Sep 25HOUHOU11@ATHATH5today

Season series

ATH wins series 8-5

May 28ATHATH1@HOUHOU11
May 28ATHATH3@HOUHOU5
Jun 17HOUHOU1@ATHATH3
Jun 18HOUHOU13@ATHATH3
Jun 19HOUHOU11@ATHATH4
Jun 20HOUHOU4@ATHATH6
Jul 25ATHATH5@HOUHOU2
Jul 26ATHATH15@HOUHOU3
Jul 26ATHATH5@HOUHOU1
Jul 27ATHATH7@HOUHOU1
Sep 24HOUHOU1@ATHATH5
Sep 25HOUHOU0@ATHATH6
Sep 25HOUHOU11@ATHATH5today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ ATH

Biggest swing: 11pp · Top 1st Inning

HOUHOU
J. Altuve

J. Altuve

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 2 R · 1.417 OPS

F. Valdez

F. Valdez

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 10 K · 1 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

ATHATH
N. Kurtz

N. Kurtz

1B

Batter of the game2-HR game

3-for-5 · 2 HR · 2.400 OPS

J.T. Ginn

J.T. Ginn

SP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 4 K · 7 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

How it ended

HOU beat ATH 11-5.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
HOUTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 71% WP

Caratini · singled to right, Paredes scored, Correa to third.

HOUTop 2nd Inning · 3-0
+7pp→ 87% WP

Altuve · doubled to left, Cole scored, Dubón to third.

HOUTop 4th Inning · 5-0
+6pp→ 95% WP

Trammell · singled to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU23022011011
ATH0000010225

Period scoring

HOU won 5 · ATH won 3

2
0

Inn 1

Caratini 1

3
0

Inn 2

Altuve 1

0
0

Inn 3

2
0

Inn 4

Paredes 1

2
0

Inn 5

Dub 1

0
1

Inn 6

Kurtz 1

1
0

Inn 7

Correa 1

1
2

Inn 8

Walker 1

Kurtz 2

0
2

Inn 9

Bleday 1

HOU
ATH

Play-by-play · 643 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    HOU 11·ATH 5

  2. B9

    · ·

    HOU 11·ATH 5

  3. B9

    Kurtz struck out swinging.

    · ·

    HOU 11·ATH 5

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    HOU 11·ATH 5

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 11·ATH 5

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 11·ATH 5

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    HOU 11·ATH 5

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 11·ATH 5

  9. B9

    Bryan Abreu pitches to Nick Kurtz

    · ·

    HOU 11·ATH 5

  10. B9

    · ·

    HOU 11·ATH 5

  11. B9

    Thomas grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    HOU 11·ATH 5

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 11·ATH 5

  13. B9

    Bryan Abreu pitches to Colby Thomas

    · ·

    HOU 11·ATH 5

  14. B9

    · ·

    HOU 11·ATH 5

  15. B9

    Schuemann grounded out to third, Bleday scored.

    · ·

    HOU 11·ATH 5

  16. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 11·ATH 5

  17. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    HOU 11·ATH 4

  18. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 11·ATH 4

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    HOU 11·ATH 4

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 11·ATH 4

  21. B9

    Muncy to second on wild pitch by Abreu, Bleday to third on wild pitch by Abreu.

    · ·

    HOU 11·ATH 4

  22. B9

    Muncy to second on wild pitch by Abreu, Bleday to third on wild pitch by Abreu.

    · ·

    HOU 11·ATH 4

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 11·ATH 4

  24. B9

    Bryan Abreu pitches to Max Schuemann

    · ·

    HOU 11·ATH 5

  25. B9

    Abreu relieved Hernandez

    ·

    HOU 11·ATH 4

  26. B9

    · ·

    HOU 11·ATH 4

  27. B9

    Muncy walked.

    · ·

    HOU 11·ATH 4

  28. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    · ·

    HOU 11·ATH 4

  29. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    HOU 11·ATH 4

  30. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 11·ATH 4

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

ATH

Home

11

Runs

5

12

Hits

12

1

Errors

0

19

TB

20

1

HR

2

7

BB

3

10

K

12

18

LOB

18

Win probability

ATH vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 14 players in cohort
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586

Player projections

ATH vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Spencer ArrighettiHOU
    5.4± 3.3low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    4.8± 2.0low

Hits

  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.6%

ensemble · ATH favored

  • Elo Static

    55.8%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.1%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.6%

    P(ATH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.76 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.