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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4MIN
MIN

MIN

69-90

4
0
TEX

TEX

80-79

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
23,298 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

MIN 4 · TEX 0 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TEX +15pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIN1000000304
TEX0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 24, 25sim 97
    94
    13(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 23, 25sim 97
    202
    15(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 96
    92
    13(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 96
    204
    15(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 7, 25sim 95
    95
    7(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 5, 25sim 94
    91
    7(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Thu, Sep 25·Final/SeriesMIN wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Minnesota Twins went into Texas Rangers and beat them, 4–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Byron Buxton

Byron Buxton

CF

2.500OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

4

RBI

TEX · top performer

TEX
Alejandro Osuna

Alejandro Osuna

LF

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIN69-90
4
0
TEX80-79
MIN69-90·TEX80-79
MIN

MIN

69-90

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
2-44224201
SPRINT29.597
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
0-33000011
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
2-44020002
SPRINT26.632
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
0-44000000
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
2-44020001
SPRINT27.251
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
0-44000001
CC. McCusker★LF
0-33000003
E. JulienE. Julien★2B
2-33020000
SPRINT26.225
C. VazquezC. Vazquez★C
2-44120000
SPRINT22.90
J. OutmanJ. OutmanCF
0-11000000
R. FitzgeraldR. Fitzgerald3B
0-11100000
Team10-35354104219
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. OberB. Ober★SP
6.0200150
K. FunderburkK. FunderburkRP
1.0000020
P. OhlP. OhlRP
1.0100010
C. SandsC. SandsRP
1.0000010
Team9.0300190
TEX

TEX

80-79

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
0-44000001
SPRINT25.716
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
0-22000002
SPRINT27.354
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
0-33000000
R. TellezR. Tellez★1B
0-22000000
A. OsunaA. Osuna★LF
1-22010010
SPRINT2872
K. HigashiokaK. Higashioka★C
0-33000002
B. McKinneyB. McKinney★LF
1-33010000
E. DuranE. Duran★2B
1-33010000
SPRINT28.891
M. HelmanM. Helman★CF
0-22000001
C. FreemanC. Freeman3B
0-22000001
J. BurgerJ. Burger1B
0-11000001
A. GarciaA. GarciaRF
0-11000001
Team3-2828030019
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. MahleT. Mahle★SP
5.0511141
J. WebbJ. WebbRP
2.0000030
C. MartinC. MartinRP
0.2533011
H. MilnerH. MilnerRP
1.1000010
Team9.01044192

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIN

  • B. Ober
    78 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      38%·88.4 mph·31% whiff
    • CH
      29%·82.1 mph·38% whiff
    • SL
      24%·82.4 mph·31% whiff
    • ST
      6%·76.7 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      1%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Ohl
    20 pitches·20% CSW
    • CH
      55%·80.7 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      35%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      10%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Funderburk
    14 pitches·43% CSW
    • FC
      64%·92.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      21%·93.0 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      14%·89.5 mph·50% whiff
  • C. Sands
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • FC
      25%·90.0 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      25%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      25%·93.9 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      8%·82.4 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      8%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·85.9 mph·0% whiff

TEX

  • T. Mahle
    78 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      41%·91.2 mph·7% whiff
    • FS
      35%·83.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      24%·86.5 mph·11% whiff
  • J. Webb
    25 pitches·44% CSW
    • FF
      40%·93.5 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      36%·84.4 mph·86% whiff
    • ST
      24%·80.6 mph·50% whiff
  • C. Martin
    24 pitches·21% CSW
    • FS
      29%·88.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      25%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·93.7 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      17%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      4%·85.7 mph·— whiff
  • H. Milner
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • ST
      43%·78.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      36%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·80.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      7%·87.0 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

3

4

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Current series

MIN wins series 2-1

Sep 24MINMIN4@TEXTEX1
Sep 25MINMIN2@TEXTEX4
Sep 25MINMIN4@TEXTEX0today

Season series

Series tied 3-3

Jun 10TEXTEX16@MINMIN4
Jun 11TEXTEX2@MINMIN6
Jun 12TEXTEX16@MINMIN3
Sep 24MINMIN4@TEXTEX1
Sep 25MINMIN2@TEXTEX4
Sep 25MINMIN4@TEXTEX0today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ TEX

Biggest swing: 16pp · Top 8th Inning

MINMIN
B. Buxton

B. Buxton

CF

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.500 OPS

B. Ober

B. Ober

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

TEXTEX
A. Osuna

A. Osuna

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

T. Mahle

T. Mahle

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

MIN beat TEX 4-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TEX vs MIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MINTop 4th Inning · 1-0
+13pp→ 57% WP

Larnach · doubled to right.

MINBottom 5th Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 56% WP

Higashioka · struck out swinging, Osuna caught stealing second, catcher to second.

MINTop 8th Inning · 4-0
+16pp→ 96% WP

Buxton · homered to center (437 feet), Fitzgerald scored and Vázquez scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIN1000000304
TEX0000000000

Period scoring

MIN won 2 · TEX won 0

1
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

3
0

Inn 8

Buxton 3

0
0

Inn 9

MIN
TEX

Play-by-play · 517 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIN 4·TEX 0

  2. B9

    ·

    MIN 4·TEX 0

  3. B9

    Freeman flied out to right.

    ·

    MIN 4·TEX 0

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 4·TEX 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    MIN 4·TEX 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball - Pitch Timer Violation 2

    ·

    MIN 4·TEX 0

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIN 4·TEX 0

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 4·TEX 0

  9. B9

    Cole Sands pitches to Cody Freeman

    ·

    MIN 4·TEX 0

  10. B9

    ·

    MIN 4·TEX 0

  11. B9

    Pederson popped out to shortstop.

    ·

    MIN 4·TEX 0

    −0.5pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 4·TEX 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 4·TEX 0

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    MIN 4·TEX 0

  15. B9

    Cole Sands pitches to Joc Pederson

    ·

    MIN 4·TEX 0

  16. B9

    ·

    MIN 4·TEX 0

  17. B9

    A. García struck out looking.

    ·

    MIN 4·TEX 0

    −1pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    MIN 4·TEX 0

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIN 4·TEX 0

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 4·TEX 0

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 4·TEX 0

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIN 4·TEX 0

  23. B9

    Cole Sands pitches to Adolis Garcia

    ·

    MIN 4·TEX 0

  24. B9

    Sands relieved Ohl

    ·

    MIN 4·TEX 0

  25. B9

    A. García hit for Helman

    ·

    MIN 4·TEX 0

  26. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    MIN 4·TEX 0

  27. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    MIN 4·TEX 0

  28. T9

    ·

    MIN 4·TEX 0

  29. T9

    Vázquez grounded out to third.

    ·

    MIN 4·TEX 0

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 4·TEX 0

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

TEX

Home

4

Runs

0

10

Hits

3

0

Errors

0

17

TB

4

2

HR

0

1

BB

1

9

K

9

10

LOB

6

Player projections

TEX vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low

Hits

  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high
  • Joc PedersonTEX
    1.9± 3.0high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

68.9%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    64.9%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    68.4%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    64.6%

    P(TEX win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.72 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 13 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Alejandro OsunaTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872