Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers: Final Score & Box Score — Sep 25, 2025

FINAL+4MIN

MIN

69-90

TEX

80-79

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas

23,298 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.5%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
64.9%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
68.4%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
64.4%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.77 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TEX vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 115 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.7± 2.7high
Taj BradleyMIN
6.6± 2.9high
Jacob deGromTEX
6.5± 2.1high

Hits

Ezequiel DuranTEX
1.2± 1.3high
Royce LewisMIN
1.1± 1.1high
Ryan JeffersMIN
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Ezequiel DuranTEX
2.2± 2.8high
Royce LewisMIN
2.0± 1.8high
Kody ClemensMIN
1.7± 2.3high

RBIs

Ezequiel DuranTEX
0.8± 1.3high
Royce LewisMIN
0.6± 1.1high
Ryan JeffersMIN
0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

Dean KremerMIN
3.7± 3.4low
Connor PrielippMIN
3.1± 1.7medium
Nathan EovaldiTEX
3.0± 1.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

TEX

.726

OPS

.720

.318

OBP

.318

4.68

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.15

4.65

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.29

1.39

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.29

8.4

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

MIN 4 · TEX 0 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TEX +15pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	4
TEX	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BuxtonCF	.265	4	2	2	4	2	0	1
A. MartinRF	.284	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
T. LarnachLF	.251	4	0	2	0	0	0	2
K. Clemens1B	.218	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Lewis3B	.241	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
B. Lee3B	.237	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. McCuskerLF	.208	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
E. Julien2B	.223	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
C. VazquezC	.186	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. OutmanCF	.155	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Fitzgerald3B	.200	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	4	10	4	2	1	9

Player

.265

.284

.251

.218

.241

.237

.208

.223

.186

.155

.200

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. OberSP	6.0	2	0	0	1	5	78
K. FunderburkRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14
P. OhlRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	20
C. SandsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
Team	9.0	3	0	0	1	9	124

Player

6.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

124

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. PedersonDH	.177	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Smith2B	.251	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Jung3B	.249	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Tellez1B	.252	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. OsunaLF	.210	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
K. HigashiokaC	.241	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. McKinneyLF	.231	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. DuranSS	.233	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. HelmanCF	.239	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Freeman3B	.218	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Burger1B	.236	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. GarciaRF	.226	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		28	0	3	0	0	1	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. MahleSP	5.0	5	1	1	1	4	78
J. WebbRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	3	25
C. MartinRP	0.2	5	3	3	0	1	24
H. MilnerRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	14
Team	9.0	10	4	4	1	9	141

Team

MIN

TEX

3 sub-models, blended.

TEX vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TEX vs MIN.

3 sub-models, blended.