MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2NYY

CHW

58-101

NYY

91-68

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York

38,545 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

73.8%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
70.3%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
71.5%
P(NYY win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
70.1%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.61 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NYY vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

Ryan WeathersNYY
6.7± 3.3low
Davis MartinCHW
6.3± 3.1low
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.1± 2.4low

Hits

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
1.2± 0.8high
Chase MeidrothCHW
1.1± 0.4high
Sam AntonacciCHW
1.1± 1.4high

Total bases

Miguel VargasCHW
2.0± 3.0high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
2.0± 2.0high
Ben RiceNYY
1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
0.9± 1.4high
Miguel VargasCHW
0.8± 1.4high
Ben RiceNYY
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Erick FeddeCHW
2.6± 3.1low
Ryan WeathersNYY
2.6± 2.9low
Anthony KayCHW
2.5± 3.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHW

league avg

NYY

.740

OPS

.715

▶

.762

.327

OBP

.319

.330

4.69

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.03

4.28

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.36

1.31

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.17

8.2

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

CHW 3 · NYY 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +20pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHW	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	3
NYY	1	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
C. Meidroth2B	.257	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Mead1B	.242	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. MontgomerySS	.231	3	0	2	0	0	1	0
E. QueroC	.272	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. Vargas3B	.232	3	2	1	0	0	1	0
K. TeelC	.272	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. TaylorRF	.200	1	1	1	2	1	0	0
C. JulksLF	.250	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
D. HillRF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. LeeC	.257	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. BaldwinLF	.236	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. RobertsonLF	.138	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		30	3	5	3	1	2	8

Player

AVG

RBI

.257

.242

.231

.272

.232

.272

.200

.250

.000

.257

.236

.138

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
D. MartinSP	4.1	6	3	3	2	5	85
T. GilbertRP	1.2	1	1	1	3	2	39
M. VasilRP	1.1	1	1	1	2	1	31
C. BooserRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	5
Team	8.0	8	5	5	7	8	160

Player

4.1

1.2

1.1

0.2

Team

8.0

160

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
T. GrishamCF	.236	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
A. JudgeRF	.330	3	1	2	0	0	2	0
C. BellingerLF	.269	3	1	1	0	0	2	0
B. Rice1B	.254	3	1	0	1	0	1	0
G. StantonDH	.264	3	0	1	3	0	1	2
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.245	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. WellsC	.221	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
A. VolpeSS	.212	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. McMahon3B	.203	2	0	1	0	0	1	1
P. Goldschmidt1B	.277	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. DominguezLF	.257	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	5	8	5	0	7	8

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
C. RodonSP	6.0	4	3	3	1	5	82
L. WeaverRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	7
D. WilliamsRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	24
D. BednarRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	18
Team	9.0	5	3	3	2	8	131

Team

CHW

NYY

—

3 sub-models, blended.

NYY vs CHW.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

NYY vs CHW.

3 sub-models, blended.