New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Box Score — Sep 25, 2025

FINAL+3NYM

NYM

82-77

CHC

89-70

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois

38,465 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.1%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
59.9%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.9%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
61.3%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.39 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHC vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 98 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
7.0± 1.7high
Christian ScottNYM
5.9± 1.6medium
Kevin GausmanCHC
5.4± 2.3high

Hits

Nico HoernerCHC
1.3± 1.4high
Alex BregmanCHC
1.2± 1.3high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Alex BregmanCHC
2.1± 2.7high
Nico HoernerCHC
2.0± 2.5high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
2.0± 1.6high

RBIs

Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.9± 0.9high
Nico HoernerCHC
0.8± 1.3high
Tyrone TaylorCHC
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Kevin GausmanCHC
3.1± 2.1high
David PetersonCHC
2.9± 3.1high
Kodai SengaNYM
2.8± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYM

league avg

CHC

.684

OPS

.720

▶

.754

.303

OBP

.318

▶

.339

4.06

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.09

4.09

Team ERA

4.18

4.07

1.29

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.25

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

NYM 8 · CHC 5 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYM	2	0	1	3	0	2	0	0	0	8
CHC	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	5

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. LindorSS	.267	4	2	1	1	1	1	0
J. SotoLF	.265	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
P. Alonso1B	.271	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
M. Vientos1B	.233	4	0	0	1	0	0	1
B. NimmoRF	.264	4	2	3	1	0	0	0
L. TorrensC	.226	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
B. Baty3B	.255	4	2	2	3	1	0	1
T. TaylorLF	.220	4	0	2	2	0	0	1
L. AcunaSS	.234	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
Team		36	8	10	8	2	2	7

Player

.267

.265

.271

.233

.264

.226

.255

.220

.234

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. McLeanSP	5.1	5	5	5	2	11	94
R. StanekRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	12
B. RaleyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	14
T. RogersRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15
E. DiazRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	8
Team	9.0	7	5	5	2	14	143

Player

5.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

143

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Busch1B	.255	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Hoerner2B	.299	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
I. HappLF	.242	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
M. BallesterosC	.283	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
S. SuzukiRF	.244	4	2	2	4	2	0	1
C. KellyC	.249	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.244	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
D. SwansonSS	.245	3	1	1	1	1	1	0
M. ShawRF	.228	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. Turner1B	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	5	7	5	3	2	14

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. ImanagaSP	5.2	9	8	8	1	3	91
D. PomeranzRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	15
M. SorokaSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
T. RogersRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	23
Team	9.0	10	8	8	2	7	137

Team

NYM

CHC

3 sub-models, blended.

CHC vs NYM.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHC vs NYM.

3 sub-models, blended.