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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3NYM
NYM

NYM

82-77

8
5
CHC

CHC

89-70

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
38,465 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

NYM 8 · CHC 5 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYM2013020008
CHC0001130005

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Thu, Sep 25·Final/SeriesNYM win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

New York Mets went into Chicago Cubs and beat them, 8–5.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYM · top performer

NYM
Brett Baty

Brett Baty

3B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

CHC · top performer

CHC
Seiya Suzuki

Seiya Suzuki

RF

2.500OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

4

RBI

MLB · New York Mets at Chicago Cubs · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYM82-77
8
5
CHC89-70
NYM82-77·CHC89-70
NYM

NYM

82-77

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
1-44211110
SPRINT26.941
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
0-55000002
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
1-44110001
SPRINT25.29
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
0-44001001
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
3-44231000
SPRINT28.278
L. TorrensL. Torrens★C
1-44110000
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
2-44223101
SPRINT26.735
T. TaylorT. Taylor★CF
2-44022001
SPRINT28.891
L. AcunaL. Acuna★CF
0-33000011
Team10-36368108227
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. McLeanN. McLean★SP
5.15552113
R. StanekR. StanekRP
0.2100000
B. RaleyB. RaleyRP
1.0000030
T. RogersT. RogersRP
1.0000000
E. DiazE. DiazRP
1.0100000
Team9.07552143
CHC

CHC

89-70

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
0-33000001
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
0-44000002
I. HappI. Happ★LF
1-33110011
SPRINT27.662
M. BallesterosM. Ballesteros★DH
1-44110002
SPRINT24.53
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
2-44224201
SPRINT27.457
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
1-44010001
SPRINT25.716
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
1-44010002
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
1-33111110
SPRINT27.867
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
0-33000003
J. TurnerJ. Turner1B
0-11000001
Team7-33335753214
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. ImanagaS. Imanaga★SP
5.2988132
D. PomeranzD. PomeranzRP
1.1000020
M. SorokaM. SorokaSP
1.0000010
T. RogersT. RogersRP
1.0100110
Team9.01088272

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYM

  • N. McLean
    94 pitches·33% CSW
    • ST
      29%·85.9 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      26%·94.8 mph·9% whiff
    • FF
      15%·95.5 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      14%·80.2 mph·75% whiff
    • FC
      12%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Rogers
    15 pitches·7% CSW
    • SI
      67%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·74.7 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Raley
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • ST
      57%·81.6 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      29%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·90.6 mph·— whiff
  • R. Stanek
    12 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      42%·97.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      25%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      8%·89.6 mph·— whiff
  • E. Diaz
    8 pitches·13% CSW
    • SL
      63%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      38%·97.3 mph·0% whiff

CHC

  • S. Imanaga
    91 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      44%·90.7 mph·5% whiff
    • FS
      33%·83.0 mph·18% whiff
    • ST
      21%·80.3 mph·38% whiff
    • SI
      2%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Rogers
    23 pitches·26% CSW
    • ST
      52%·78.3 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      48%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Pomeranz
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      73%·93.5 mph·17% whiff
    • KC
      27%·85.3 mph·33% whiff
  • M. Soroka
    8 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      38%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      38%·80.4 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      13%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·94.8 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

7

8

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

NYM win series 2-1

Sep 23NYMNYM9@CHCCHC7
Sep 25NYMNYM3@CHCCHC10
Sep 25NYMNYM8@CHCCHC5today

Season series

NYM win series 4-2

May 9CHCCHC2@NYMNYM7
May 10CHCCHC6@NYMNYM5
May 11CHCCHC2@NYMNYM6
Sep 23NYMNYM9@CHCCHC7
Sep 25NYMNYM3@CHCCHC10
Sep 25NYMNYM8@CHCCHC5today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYM ↔ CHC

Biggest swing: 15pp · Top 4th Inning

NYMNYM
B. Baty

B. Baty

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

N. McLean

N. McLean

SP

Starting pitcher11-K game

5.1 IP · 11 K · 5 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

CHCCHC
S. Suzuki

S. Suzuki

RF

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.500 OPS

S. Imanaga

S. Imanaga

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 3 K · 8 ER · 9 H · 1 BB

How it ended

NYM beat CHC 8-5.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CHC vs NYM

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYMTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+9pp→ 56% WP

Nimmo · singled to right, Alonso scored.

NYMTop 3rd Inning · 3-0
+11pp→ 72% WP

Lindor · homered to left (407 feet).

NYMTop 4th Inning · 6-0
+15pp→ 93% WP

Baty · homered to left (371 feet), Nimmo scored and Torrens scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYM2013020008
CHC0001130005

Period scoring

NYM won 3 · CHC won 2

2
0

Inn 1

Vientos 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Lindor 1

3
1

Inn 4

Baty 3

Suzuki 1

0
1

Inn 5

Swanson 1

2
3

Inn 6

Taylor 2

Suzuki 3

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

NYM
CHC

Play-by-play · 547 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    NYM 8·CHC 5

  2. B9

    ·

    NYM 8·CHC 5

  3. B9

    Swanson grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Kelly out at second.

    · ·

    NYM 8·CHC 5

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 8·CHC 5

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYM 8·CHC 5

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 8·CHC 5

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 8·CHC 5

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 8·CHC 5

  9. B9

    Edwin Diaz pitches to Dansby Swanson

    · ·

    NYM 8·CHC 5

  10. B9

    · ·

    NYM 8·CHC 5

  11. B9

    Crow-Armstrong flied out to right.

    · ·

    NYM 8·CHC 5

    −4pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 8·CHC 5

  13. B9

    Edwin Diaz pitches to Pete Crow-Armstrong

    · ·

    NYM 8·CHC 5

  14. B9

    ·

    NYM 8·CHC 5

  15. B9

    Kelly singled to left.

    ·

    NYM 8·CHC 5

    +4pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 8·CHC 5

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYM 8·CHC 5

  18. B9

    Edwin Diaz pitches to Carson Kelly

    ·

    NYM 8·CHC 5

  19. B9

    Díaz relieved Rogers

    · ·

    NYM 8·CHC 5

  20. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    NYM 8·CHC 5

  21. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    NYM 8·CHC 5

  22. T9

    · ·

    NYM 8·CHC 5

  23. T9

    J. Soto struck out swinging.

    · ·

    NYM 8·CHC 5

    +0.6pp

  24. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 8·CHC 5

  25. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 8·CHC 5

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 8·CHC 5

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    NYM 8·CHC 5

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYM 8·CHC 5

  29. T9

    Taylor Rogers pitches to Juan Soto

    · ·

    NYM 8·CHC 5

  30. T9

    · ·

    NYM 8·CHC 5

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

8

Runs

5

10

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

18

TB

18

2

HR

3

2

BB

2

7

K

14

8

LOB

7

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Tyrone TaylorNYM · CF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

CHC vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    1.5± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.3%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    59.9%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.9%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    60.6%

    P(CHC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.14 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 25, 25sim 98
    213
    16(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 26, 25sim 97
    241
    16(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 21, 25sim 97
    265
    19(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 23, 25sim 97
    219
    16(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 95
    286
    13(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 1, 25sim 95
    156
    16(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs