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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5TOR
BOS

BOS

87-72

1
6
TOR

TOR

91-68

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
42,129 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

BOS 1 · TOR 6 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS0000001001
TOR000006006

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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MLB edges →Full slate →
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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 7, 25sim 97
    143
    10(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 96
    27
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 5, 25sim 95
    147
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 6, 25sim 94
    141
    10(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 94
    196
    12(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 93
    104
    2(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Thu, Sep 25·Final/Seriestied 3-3

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays held off Boston Red Sox, 6–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Masataka Yoshida

Masataka Yoshida

DH

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
Daulton Varsho

Daulton Varsho

CF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

4

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BOS87-72
1
6
TOR91-68
BOS87-72·TOR91-68
BOS

BOS

87-72

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
1-33110000
SPRINT29.294
T. StoryT. Story★SS
1-44011000
SPRINT27.969
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
0-33000011
SPRINT25.818
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
1-33010010
SPRINT26.123
R. GonzalezR. Gonzalez★1B
0-44000002
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
0-33000001
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
1-33010001
SPRINT25.411
R. RefsnyderR. Refsnyder★DH
0-22000001
C. WongC. Wong★C
0-22000001
N. EatonN. EatonOF
0-11000000
D. HamiltonD. HamiltonSS
0-11000001
Team4-2929141028
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. BelloB. Bello★SP
5.0332330
J. WilsonJ. WilsonRP
0.1222001
Z. KellyZ. KellyRP
0.2111001
C. MurphyC. MurphyRP
2.0100120
Team8.0765452
TOR

TOR

91-68

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
1-44112111
SPRINT25.920
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
1-44010000
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
1-44110000
SPRINT26.123
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
0-22100020
A. SantanderA. Santander★RF
1-22110001
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
2-44124101
SPRINT26.838
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
0-44000000
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
1-44110001
SPRINT27.560
T. HeinemanT. Heineman★C
0-33000001
Team7-3131676245
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. VarlandL. Varland★RP
2.0000030
E. LauerE. LauerSP
3.1000020
Y. RodriguezY. RodriguezRP
0.2000010
B. FisherB. FisherRP
0.2211100
S. DominguezS. DominguezRP
0.2100010
B. LittleB. LittleRP
0.2000000
J. HoffmanJ. HoffmanRP
1.0100110
Team9.0411280

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

  • B. Bello
    89 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      51%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      26%·87.6 mph·42% whiff
    • ST
      17%·85.2 mph·11% whiff
    • CH
      4%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      2%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Murphy
    31 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      42%·96.0 mph·29% whiff
    • CU
      29%·78.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      13%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      6%·80.3 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      3%·85.3 mph·— whiff
  • J. Wilson
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      30%·88.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      20%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
  • Z. Kelly
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • FC
      60%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      10%·80.5 mph·0% whiff

TOR

  • E. Lauer
    44 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      52%·93.1 mph·21% whiff
    • CU
      14%·75.3 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      14%·88.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Varland
    23 pitches·43% CSW
    • FF
      43%·98.7 mph·50% whiff
    • KC
      22%·88.3 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      17%·94.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      13%·97.7 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      4%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Hoffman
    23 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      35%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      35%·86.8 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      22%·88.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Dominguez
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.9 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      31%·86.2 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      6%·82.8 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      6%·87.1 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      6%·96.5 mph·— whiff
  • B. Fisher
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • SL
      45%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      36%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      18%·81.7 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Rodriguez
    5 pitches·40% CSW
    • SL
      60%·87.0 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      40%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Little
    4 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      75%·93.7 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      25%·94.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

7

1

Runs

6

1

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 3-3

Apr 29BOSBOS10@TORTOR2
Apr 30BOSBOS6@TORTOR7
May 1BOSBOS2@TORTOR4
Sep 23BOSBOS4@TORTOR1
Sep 24BOSBOS7@TORTOR1
Sep 25BOSBOS1@TORTOR6today

Season series

TOR wins series 8-5

Apr 7TORTOR6@BOSBOS2
Apr 8TORTOR6@BOSBOS1
Apr 9TORTOR2@BOSBOS1
Apr 10TORTOR3@BOSBOS4
Apr 29BOSBOS10@TORTOR2
Apr 30BOSBOS6@TORTOR7
May 1BOSBOS2@TORTOR4
Jun 27TORTOR9@BOSBOS0
Jun 28TORTOR1@BOSBOS15
Jun 29TORTOR5@BOSBOS3
Sep 23BOSBOS4@TORTOR1
Sep 24BOSBOS7@TORTOR1
Sep 25BOSBOS1@TORTOR6today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 19pp · Bottom 6th Inning

BOSBOS
M. Yoshida

M. Yoshida

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

B. Bello

B. Bello

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

TORTOR
D. Varsho

D. Varsho

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

E. Lauer

E. Lauer

SP

Top reliever

3.1 IP · 2 K · 0 ER

How it ended

TOR beat BOS 6-1. Varsho's play in the bottom 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Win probability

TOR vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BOSBottom 3rd Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 51% WP

Santander · struck out looking.

BOSBottom 5th Inning · 0-0
+10pp→ 48% WP

Springer · grounded into double play, pitcher to second to first, Heineman out at second.

TORBottom 6th Inning · 0-4
+19pp→ 95% WP

Varsho · homered to right center (371 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored, Barger scored and Santander scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS0000001001
TOR00000600—6

Period scoring

BOS won 1 · TOR won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
6

Inn 6

Varsho 4

1
0

Inn 7

Story 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

BOS
TOR

Play-by-play · 522 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    BOS 1·TOR 6

  2. T9

    González popped out to shortstop.

    · ·

    BOS 1·TOR 6

    +0.9pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 1·TOR 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BOS 1·TOR 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 1·TOR 6

  6. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Romy Gonzalez

    · ·

    BOS 1·TOR 6

  7. T9

    · ·

    BOS 1·TOR 6

  8. T9

    Yoshida reached on infield single to third, Bregman to second, Duran to third.

    · ·

    BOS 1·TOR 6

    −0.6pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 1·TOR 6

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 1·TOR 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 1·TOR 6

  12. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Masataka Yoshida

    · ·

    BOS 1·TOR 6

  13. T9

    · ·

    BOS 1·TOR 6

  14. T9

    Bregman walked, Duran to second.

    · ·

    BOS 1·TOR 6

  15. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 4

    · ·

    BOS 1·TOR 6

  16. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    BOS 1·TOR 6

  17. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 1·TOR 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BOS 1·TOR 6

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 1·TOR 6

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 1·TOR 6

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 1·TOR 6

  22. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Alex Bregman

    · ·

    BOS 1·TOR 6

  23. T9

    · ·

    BOS 1·TOR 6

  24. T9

    Story flied out to right.

    · ·

    BOS 1·TOR 6

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 1·TOR 6

  26. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Trevor Story

    · ·

    BOS 1·TOR 6

  27. T9

    ·

    BOS 1·TOR 6

  28. T9

    Duran hit by pitch.

    ·

    BOS 1·TOR 6

  29. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 1·TOR 6

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    BOS 1·TOR 6

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

1

Runs

6

4

Hits

7

1

Errors

0

5

TB

16

0

HR

2

2

BB

4

8

K

5

7

LOB

13

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790

Player projections

TOR vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.8± 2.2low
  • Connelly EarlyBOS
    5.1± 2.1low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 3.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    2.2± 2.3low
  • Patrick CorbinTOR
    2.0± 1.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.7%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    51.5%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.9%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.9%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.41 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.