MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CIN

PIT

69-90

CIN

81-78

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

24,249 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.0%

ensemble · CIN favored

Elo Static
56.4%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.7%
P(CIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.1%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.28 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CIN vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 70 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
6.9± 3.1low
Paul SkenesPIT
6.8± 3.2low
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.6± 2.7low

Hits

Blake DunnCIN
1.2± 0.9high
Jake MangumPIT
1.2± 1.2high
Nick GonzalesPIT
1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

Spencer HorwitzPIT
2.0± 2.1high
JJ BledayCIN
1.9± 1.6high
Tyler CallihanPIT
1.9± 3.7low

RBIs

Brandon LowePIT
0.8± 1.1high
Esmerlyn ValdezPIT
0.8± 1.8low
Tyler CallihanPIT
0.8± 1.9low

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.5± 3.0low
Nick LodoloCIN
3.3± 1.8low
Chris PaddackCIN
3.2± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PIT

league avg

CIN

.740

OPS

◀

.715

.710

.335

OBP

◀

.319

.314

5.04

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.24

4.26

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.77

1.31

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.47

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

PIT 1 · CIN 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CIN +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PIT	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1
CIN	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. TrioloSS	.226	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. Gonzales3B	.261	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. ReynoldsLF	.243	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. McCutchenDH	.238	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. PhamLF	.245	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. BartC	.248	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
A. CanarioLF	.223	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. Flores Jr.C	.300	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. Yorke3B	.217	2	0	0	1	0	1	1
S. Horwitz1B	.264	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. SuwinskiRF	.140	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	1	3	1	0	1	14

Player

AVG

RBI

.226

.261

.243

.238

.245

.248

.223

.300

.217

.264

.140

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
B. AshcraftSP	4.1	8	2	2	1	5	72
K. NicolasRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	3	24
C. MlodzinskiSP	2.0	1	0	0	0	0	26
Team	8.0	10	2	2	1	8	122

Player

B. AshcraftSP

4.1

K. NicolasRP

1.2

C. MlodzinskiSP

2.0

Team

8.0

122

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
T. FriedlCF	.259	3	1	2	0	0	1	0
N. MarteRF	.270	4	1	1	1	0	0	2
G. LuxLF	.267	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
S. SteerLF	.238	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. De La CruzSS	.264	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. AndujarDH	.356	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
W. BensonRF	.227	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. TrevinoC	.239	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. Hayes3B	.243	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
M. McLain2B	.220	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	2	10	2	0	1	8

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
N. LodoloSP	6.1	2	0	0	1	12	81
G. AshcraftRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	8
T. SantillanRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	16
E. PaganRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	7
Team	9.0	3	1	1	1	14	112

Team

PIT

CIN

—

3 sub-models, blended.

CIN vs PIT.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CIN vs PIT.

3 sub-models, blended.