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FINAL+1PHI
MIA

MIA

77-82

0
1
PHI

PHI

94-65

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
36,265 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

MIA 0 · PHI 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIA0000000000
PHI100000001

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Thu, Sep 25·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies held off Miami Marlins, 1–0. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIA · top performer

MIA
Troy Johnston

Troy Johnston

RF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Bryson Stott

Bryson Stott

2B

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIA77-82
0
1
PHI94-65
MIA77-82·PHI94-65
MIA

MIA

77-82

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
0-33000010
SPRINT27.765
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
1-44010002
SPRINT27.354
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
0-11000031
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
1-33010000
SPRINT25.614
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
1-44010000
SPRINT28.381
G. ConineG. Conine★LF
0-44000001
C. NorbyC. Norby★1B
0-33000001
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
2-44020000
SPRINT26.326
G. PauleyG. Pauley★3B
0-33000011
H. HernandezH. HernandezLF
0-11000000
Team5-3030050056
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. JunkJ. Junk★SP
4.2511040
C. GibsonC. GibsonRP
0.1000110
R. HenriquezR. HenriquezRP
1.2100120
J. SimpsonJ. SimpsonRP
0.2100020
C. FaucherC. FaucherRP
0.2000010
Team8.07112100
PHI

PHI

94-65

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
1-44110001
SPRINT27.662
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
0-33000012
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
1-44010002
SPRINT2744
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
2-44021000
SPRINT26.632
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
1-44010002
SPRINT28.175
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
0-33000011
M. KeplerM. Kepler★LF
0-33000002
B. StottB. Stott★2B
2-33020000
SPRINT28.688
E. SosaE. Sosa★2B
0-33000000
Team7-31311710210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
W. BuehlerW. Buehler★SP
5.0300320
T. WalkerT. WalkerSP
2.0100230
M. StrahmM. StrahmRP
1.0000010
D. RobertsonD. RobertsonRP
1.0100000
Team9.0500560

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIA

  • J. Junk
    61 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      43%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·88.2 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      10%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      8%·80.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·80.1 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Henriquez
    30 pitches·30% CSW
    • SL
      43%·87.7 mph·38% whiff
    • CH
      30%·92.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      17%·97.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      10%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Simpson
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • ST
      36%·82.3 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      29%·81.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      21%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      7%·93.4 mph·— whiff
  • C. Gibson
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • CU
      46%·78.9 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      23%·92.7 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      23%·80.1 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      8%·85.0 mph·— whiff
  • C. Faucher
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • FC
      33%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·88.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      22%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      11%·88.2 mph·100% whiff

PHI

  • W. Buehler
    74 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      28%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      16%·90.5 mph·20% whiff
    • KC
      15%·75.8 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      14%·88.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      12%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      9%·81.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      5%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Walker
    35 pitches·29% CSW
    • FS
      46%·87.7 mph·43% whiff
    • FC
      23%·87.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      20%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·74.3 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      6%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Strahm
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      67%·83.1 mph·43% whiff
    • FF
      25%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·92.7 mph·— whiff
  • D. Robertson
    10 pitches·10% CSW
    • KC
      50%·84.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      40%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·86.5 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

7

0

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

PHI wins series 4-2

Apr 18MIAMIA2@PHIPHI7
Apr 19MIAMIA10@PHIPHI11
Apr 20MIAMIA7@PHIPHI5
Sep 23MIAMIA6@PHIPHI5
Sep 24MIAMIA1@PHIPHI11
Sep 25MIAMIA0@PHIPHI1today

Season series

PHI wins series 9-4

Apr 18MIAMIA2@PHIPHI7
Apr 19MIAMIA10@PHIPHI11
Apr 20MIAMIA7@PHIPHI5
Jun 16PHIPHI5@MIAMIA2
Jun 17PHIPHI3@MIAMIA8
Jun 18PHIPHI4@MIAMIA2
Jun 19PHIPHI2@MIAMIA1
Sep 5PHIPHI9@MIAMIA3
Sep 6PHIPHI4@MIAMIA2
Sep 7PHIPHI4@MIAMIA5
Sep 23MIAMIA6@PHIPHI5
Sep 24MIAMIA1@PHIPHI11
Sep 25MIAMIA0@PHIPHI1today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIA ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 9pp · Top 4th Inning

MIAMIA
T. Johnston

T. Johnston

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

J. Junk

J. Junk

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 5 H

PHIPHI
B. Stott

B. Stott

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

W. Buehler

W. Buehler

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

How it ended

PHI beat MIA 1-0.

Win probability

PHI vs MIA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PHITop 1st Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 64% WP

Ram · írez struck out looking, Marsee caught stealing second, catcher to second.

PHITop 3rd Inning · 0-1
+8pp→ 75% WP

Hicks · popped out to second.

PHITop 4th Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 76% WP

Conine · lined into double play, shortstop to first, Lopez doubled off first.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIA0000000000
PHI10000000—1

Period scoring

MIA won 0 · PHI won 1

0
1

Inn 1

Bohm 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

MIA
PHI

Play-by-play · 515 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    MIA 0·PHI 1

  2. T9

    Pauley lined out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIA 0·PHI 1

    +6pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 0·PHI 1

  4. T9

    David Robertson pitches to Graham Pauley

    · ·

    MIA 0·PHI 1

  5. T9

    Wiemer ran for Johnston

    ·

    MIA 0·PHI 1

  6. T9

    ·

    MIA 0·PHI 1

  7. T9

    Johnston singled to right.

    ·

    MIA 0·PHI 1

    −4pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 0·PHI 1

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIA 0·PHI 1

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIA 0·PHI 1

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 0·PHI 1

  12. T9

    David Robertson pitches to Troy Johnston

    ·

    MIA 0·PHI 1

  13. T9

    ·

    MIA 0·PHI 1

  14. T9

    Norby grounded out to third.

    ·

    MIA 0·PHI 1

    +5pp

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 0·PHI 1

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 0·PHI 1

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIA 0·PHI 1

  18. T9

    David Robertson pitches to Connor Norby

    ·

    MIA 0·PHI 1

  19. T9

    ·

    MIA 0·PHI 1

  20. T9

    Conine grounded out to third.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    MIA 0·PHI 1

    +5pp

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 0·PHI 1

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIA 0·PHI 1

  23. T9

    David Robertson pitches to Griffin Conine

    ·

    MIA 0·PHI 1

  24. T9

    Robertson relieved Strahm

    ·

    MIA 0·PHI 1

  25. T9

    Castellanos in right field.

    MIA 0·PHI 1

  26. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    MIA 0·PHI 1

  27. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    MIA 0·PHI 1

  28. B8

    · ·

    MIA 0·PHI 1

  29. B8

    Realmuto grounded out to third.

    · ·

    MIA 0·PHI 1

  30. B8

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 0·PHI 1

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

0

Runs

1

5

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

5

TB

7

0

HR

0

5

BB

2

6

K

10

18

LOB

17

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 8, 25sim 95
    210
    22(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 93
    173
    8(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 92
    112
    2(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 92
    183
    14(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 92
    11
    10(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 91
    12
    10(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

PHI vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low

Hits

  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.9± 1.6high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    1.8± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high
  • Owen CaissieMIA
    0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.3%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    61.9%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.0%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.0%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.42 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872