Colorado Rockies vs Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Box Score — Sep 25, 2025

FINAL+4SEA

COL

43-116

SEA

90-69

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington

40,686 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

78.3%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
78.5%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
83.0%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
77.9%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.27 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SEA vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 111 high confidence

Strikeouts

Logan GilbertSEA
6.7± 2.0high
Bryan WooSEA
6.1± 1.9high
Bryce MillerSEA
5.9± 4.4low

Hits

Cole YoungSEA
1.3± 1.2high
Cole CarriggCOL
1.1± 1.1high
Kyle KarrosCOL
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Mickey MoniakCOL
2.2± 2.5high
Willi CastroCOL
2.1± 2.0high
Cole YoungSEA
2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

Mickey MoniakCOL
0.9± 1.3high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.6high
Jake McCarthyCOL
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
3.9± 1.9high
Ryan FeltnerCOL
3.3± 2.7medium
Bryan WooSEA
3.2± 2.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

COL

league avg

SEA

.747

OPS

◀

.720

.687

.324

OBP

◀

.318

.310

4.86

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.98

5.52

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.78

1.52

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.19

7.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

COL 2 · SEA 6 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +29pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
COL	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	2
SEA	0	2	0	3	1	0	0	0	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. MoniakLF	.270	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
H. GoodmanC	.278	5	0	2	1	0	0	1
B. Crim1B	.286	4	1	1	0	0	1	2
J. BeckLF	.262	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. TovarSS	.254	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
B. DoyleCF	.231	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Karros3B	.223	3	1	0	0	0	1	2
B. FulfordDH	.210	3	0	1	0	0	1	2
R. Ritter2B	.251	4	0	3	0	0	0	0
Y. FernandezRF	.236	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		36	2	9	2	0	3	13

Player

.270

.278

.286

.262

.254

.231

.223

.210

.251

.236

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BlalockSP	3.2	6	5	5	2	1	73
A. MolinaRP	2.1	3	1	1	1	2	33
L. PeraltaRP	1.0	1	0	0	2	1	28
Z. AgnosRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	17
Team	8.0	10	6	6	6	6	151

Player

3.2

2.1

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

151

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. ArozarenaLF	.235	5	0	2	2	0	0	1
C. RaleighC	.247	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. RodriguezCF	.268	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Naylor1B	.297	3	2	2	0	0	0	0
J. PolancoDH	.265	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
E. SuarezDH	.202	4	1	3	3	1	0	0
D. CanzoneDH	.305	3	1	1	1	0	1	1
M. GarverC	.210	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
J.P. CrawfordSS	.265	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. RaleyRF	.203	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
V. RoblesRF	.245	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Young2B	.212	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
L. Rivas3B	.259	1	0	0	0	0	2	1
Team		33	6	10	6	1	6	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. HancockSP	4.0	2	0	0	0	7	51
C. VargasRP	2.0	4	1	1	0	2	32
C. FergusonRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	16
M. BrashRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	16
C. LeguminaRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	2	20
Team	9.0	9	2	2	3	13	135

Team

COL

SEA

—

3 sub-models, blended.

SEA vs COL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SEA vs COL.

3 sub-models, blended.