Recent form
6-4
MIL +0.5 vs PIT -1.3 margin
MIL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
PIT
PIT
57-59
PregameThu, 2:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
MIL
MIL
71-43
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketAmerican Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Line movement
200 snapshots
MIL spread
-1.5
open PK · -1.5
Total
O/U 7.5
open O/U 7.5
MIL no-vig %
56.1%
open 56.1%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Braxton Ashcraft
SP · #35
11-4
W-L
3.96
ERA
1.16
WHIP
140
K
127.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@CINW(11-4)5.0 IP1 ER5 K
vsCHCW(10-4)6.0 IP4 ER5 K
@NYYL(9-4)3.0 IP7 ER2 K
Home starter
Dustin May
SP · #21
5-7
W-L
4.38
ERA
1.28
WHIP
106
K
109.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsCHC-5.0 IP0 ER3 K
vsCIN-6.0 IP1 ER8 K
@ARIL(5-7)5.0 IP5 ER6 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 7.5
Money+119 / -127
Model edge
Win prob40% / 60%
LeanHome · 10pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesMIL leads series 2-1
TypeCurrent Series
Place a bet
Take MIL on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Scouting report · pre-game
MIL vs PIT.
MIL is 6-4 recently; PIT is 3-7.
60.3%
model · MIL win prob
Recent form
- MIL6–4+0.5
- PIT3–7-1.3
Situational
- MIL1d restB2B
- PIT1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. MIL has 0 straight road games; PIT has 7.
Model angle
+5.8ppon MIL
MIL's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. The signals lean the same way. Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
- ▲Model confidence+2.0pp
- ▲Venue split+2.0pp
Players to watch
- Jacob MisiorowskiMIL9.4strikeouts · ±2.7
Jacob Misiorowski · 9.4 K · last-10 9.5 vs season 9.3.
- Paul SkenesPIT7.1strikeouts · ±2.1
Paul Skenes · 7.1 K · last-10 7.3 vs season 6.8.
- Braxton AshcraftPIT6.1strikeouts · ±2.2
Braxton Ashcraft · 6.1 K · last-10 5.9 vs season 6.4.
Head-to-head · 2-4 · last 6
MIL is 2-4 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-07-11MIL @ PIT6–7
- 2026-07-12MIL @ PIT5–14
- 2026-08-03PIT @ MIL4–3
- 2026-08-04PIT @ MIL2–4
- 2026-08-05PIT @ MIL2–4
Line move
open -142→-142flat
The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
60.5%
ensemble · MIL favored
Elo Static
59.3%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
58.8%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
60.5%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.72 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
95% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIL vs PIT.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
131
projections · 115 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Jacob MisiorowskiMIL9.4± 2.7high
- Paul SkenesPIT7.1± 2.1high
- Kyle HarrisonMIL6.2± 4.5medium
Hits
- Jackson ChourioMIL1.2± 1.0high
- Brandon LowePIT1.2± 1.1high
- Jake BauersMIL1.1± 0.7high
Total bases
- Brandon LowePIT2.1± 2.1high
- Jake BauersMIL2.0± 1.7high
- Jackson ChourioMIL1.9± 1.9high
RBIs
- Luis LaraMIL0.8± 1.3high
- Brice TurangMIL0.7± 0.9high
- Jake BauersMIL0.6± 1.0high
Earned runs
- Braxton AshcraftPIT3.0± 2.4high
- Paul SkenesPIT2.9± 1.9high
- Robert GasserMIL2.5± 3.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
PIT
league avg
MIL
.746
OPS
◀
.719
.733
.333
OBP
.318
.336
5.05
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.96
4.30
Team ERA
4.18
▶3.45
1.33
WHIP
1.30
▶1.16
9.4
K / 9
8.5
▶9.9
The One modelEdge
Thu, Aug 6PIT
Pirates
62-67
vs60.3%MIL
MIL★
Brewers
75-57
PIT 39.7%win prob60.3% MIL
MIL 1531 · PIT 1489Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- AngelsOrioles8/6 - 12:35 PM EDT
- AthleticsReds8/6 - 12:40 PM EDT
- MetsGuardians8/6 - 1:10 PM EDT
- Blue JaysCubs8/6 - 2:20 PM EDT
- TigersMariners8/6 - 4:10 PM EDT
- NationalsPhillies8/6 - 6:05 PM EDT
- White SoxRed Sox8/6 - 7:10 PM EDT
- MarlinsBraves8/6 - 7:15 PM EDT
- TwinsRoyals8/6 - 7:30 PM EDT
- PadresDiamondbacks8/6 - 9:40 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
