Park factor
103 total idx
Great American Ball Park run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Athletics at Cincinnati Reds
ATH
ATH
45-68
PregameThu, 12:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
CIN
CIN
54-58
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketGreat American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio
Line movement
2 snapshots
Total
O/U 9.0
open O/U 9.0
CIN no-vig %
62.2%
open 62.2%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
M
Mason Barnett
RP · #63
1-1
W-L
4.85
ERA
1.31
WHIP
29
K
29.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsBOS-5.0 IP3 ER6 K
@MINL(1-1)3.1 IP2 ER2 K
@CHW-1.0 IP3 ER0 K
Home starter
Hunter Greene
SP · #21
2-2
W-L
6.83
ERA
1.37
WHIP
33
K
27.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsPIT-6.0 IP4 ER4 K
@STLL(2-2)5.1 IP6 ER3 K
@COLW(2-1)6.0 IP3 ER7 K
Vegas line
SpreadOFF
TotalO/U 9
Money+153 / -186
Model edge
Win prob37% / 63%
LeanHome · 13pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesCIN leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Place a bet
Take CIN on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Scouting report · pre-game
CIN vs ATH.
CIN is 6-4 recently; ATH is 1-9.
62.6%
model · CIN win prob
Recent form
- CIN6–4-0.1
- ATH1–9-3.5
Situational
- CIN2d rest
- ATH2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. CIN has 0 straight road games; ATH has 1.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.3 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.3pp
Players to watch
- Chase BurnsCIN6.5strikeouts · ±2.6
Chase Burns · 6.5 K · last-10 6.5 vs season 6.5.
- Brady SingerCIN5.1strikeouts · ±1.1
Brady Singer · 5.1 K · last-10 5.5 vs season 4.4.
- J.T. GinnATH5.0strikeouts · ±1.6
J.T. Ginn · 5 K · last-10 5.3 vs season 4.6.
Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1
CIN is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-04ATH @ CIN4–5
Line move
open -186→-186flat
The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
62.0%
ensemble · CIN favored
Elo Static
62.5%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
60.2%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
62.7%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.13 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
93% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CIN vs ATH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
127
projections · 91 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Hunter GreeneCIN6.6± 4.7low
- Chase BurnsCIN6.5± 2.5high
- Gage JumpATH5.8± 3.0low
Hits
- Jeff McNeilATH1.1± 0.8high
- Elly De La CruzCIN1.1± 1.0high
- Tommy WhiteATH1.0± 1.8medium
Total bases
- Jose TrevinoCIN2.0± 3.2high
- Elly De La CruzCIN1.9± 2.1high
- Sal StewartCIN1.9± 2.0high
RBIs
- Sal StewartCIN1.0± 1.4high
- Elly De La CruzCIN0.6± 0.8high
- Jose TrevinoCIN0.6± 1.1high
Earned runs
- Hunter GreeneCIN4.2± 4.1low
- Jack PerkinsATH3.1± 1.7high
- Gage JumpATH2.8± 3.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
ATH
league avg
CIN
.720
OPS
◀
.720
.707
.320
OBP
◀
.318
.310
4.35
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.17
5.42
Team ERA
4.18
▶4.43
1.50
WHIP
1.30
▶1.41
8.6
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.1
The One modelEdge
Thu, Aug 6ATH
Athletics
54-82
vs62.6%CIN
CIN★
Reds
63-70
ATH 37.4%win prob62.6% CIN
CIN 1468 · ATH 1403Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- AngelsOrioles8/6 - 12:35 PM EDT
- MetsGuardians8/6 - 1:10 PM EDT
- PiratesBrewers8/6 - 2:10 PM EDT
- Blue JaysCubs8/6 - 2:20 PM EDT
- TigersMariners8/6 - 4:10 PM EDT
- NationalsPhillies8/6 - 6:05 PM EDT
- White SoxRed Sox8/6 - 7:10 PM EDT
- MarlinsBraves8/6 - 7:15 PM EDT
- TwinsRoyals8/6 - 7:30 PM EDT
- PadresDiamondbacks8/6 - 9:40 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
