Park factor
97 total idx
Oriole Park at Camden Yards run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles
LAA
LAA
43-70
PregameThu, 12:35 PM EDTMLB.TV
BAL
BAL
55-58
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketOriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Home starter
Brandon Young
SP · #63
8-2
W-L
3.31
ERA
1.29
WHIP
85
K
103.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsPHI-5.2 IP4 ER5 K
vsATL-6.1 IP1 ER6 K
@HOUW(8-2)7.0 IP1 ER7 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob38% / 62%
LeanHome · 12pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesBAL leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
BAL vs LAA.
BAL is 5-5 recently; LAA is 2-8.
61.5%
model · BAL win prob
Recent form
- BAL5–5-2.0
- LAA2–8-1.8
Situational
- BAL2d rest
- LAA2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. BAL has 0 straight road games; LAA has 1.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.3pp
Players to watch
- Reid DetmersLAA6.4strikeouts · ±2.0
Reid Detmers · 6.4 K · last-10 6.3 vs season 6.6.
- Kyle BradishBAL5.2strikeouts · ±3.1
Kyle Bradish · 5.2 K · last-10 5.2 vs season 5.3.
- Walbert UrenaLAA5.1strikeouts · ±1.5
Walbert Urena · 5.1 K · last-10 5.4 vs season 4.8.
Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1
BAL is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-04LAA @ BAL1–3
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
61.6%
ensemble · BAL favored
Elo Static
61.3%
P(BAL win)
44%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
61.3%
P(BAL win)
11%
weight
Bullpen Park
61.5%
P(BAL win)
45%
weight
Disagreement
0.10 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
99% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
2 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
BAL vs LAA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
121
projections · 94 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Reid DetmersLAA6.4± 2.0high
- Kyle BradishBAL5.2± 3.0high
- Walbert UrenaLAA5.1± 1.5high
Hits
- Mike TroutLAA1.1± 1.2high
- Vaughn GrissomLAA1.1± 0.9high
- Jackson HollidayBAL1.0± 1.3high
Total bases
- Pete AlonsoBAL1.8± 2.0high
- Vaughn GrissomLAA1.8± 2.0high
- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL1.7± 3.3low
RBIs
- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL0.9± 1.9low
- Vaughn GrissomLAA0.8± 0.9high
- Jeremiah JacksonBAL0.6± 0.7high
Earned runs
- Grayson RodriguezLAA3.5± 2.7low
- Ryan JohnsonLAA3.3± 3.3low
- Kyle BradishBAL2.5± 1.9high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
LAA
league avg
BAL
.695
OPS
.720
▶.710
.313
OBP
.318
▶.319
4.17
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.51
4.48
Team ERA
4.18
▶4.23
1.36
WHIP
1.30
1.35
9.1
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.0
The One modelEdge
Thu, Aug 6LAA
Angels
51-85
vs61.6%BAL
BAL★
Orioles
59-80
LAA 38.4%win prob61.6% BAL
BAL 1460 · LAA 1404Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
