Starter edge
3.51 ERA
Michael Wacha vs Bailey Ober - 4.45 ERA
Wacha owns the sharper run-prevention profile, giving KC cleaner opening script tonight.
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Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals
MIN
MIN
56-59
PregameThu, 7:30 PM EDTESPN
KC
KC
48-67
Probable starters
The mound matchup
Combined ERA 7.96
B. Ober
7-3 · 4.45 ERA
vs
M. Wacha
5-8 · 3.51 ERA
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketKauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
Line movement
200 snapshots
KC spread
+1.5
open PK · +1.5
Total
O/U 9.0
open O/U 8.5 · +0.5
KC no-vig %
53.2%
open 51.7% · +1.5
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Bailey Ober
SP · #17
7-3
W-L
4.45
ERA
1.23
WHIP
63
K
87.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsKC-6.0 IP2 ER3 K
@CLE-4.0 IP4 ER2 K
@CHCW(7-3)5.1 IP2 ER7 K
Home starter
Michael Wacha
SP · #52
5-8
W-L
3.51
ERA
1.16
WHIP
111
K
138.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@COLL(5-8)6.0 IP1 ER7 K
@DET-7.0 IP2 ER3 K
vsSF-6.0 IP1 ER5 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 9
Money+113 / -121
Model edge
Win prob53% / 47%
LeanAway · 3pp
ConfidenceTossup
Head to head
SeriesKC leads series 2-0
TypeCurrent Series
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Projected lineups
Top of the order, top of mind.
Posted by ESPN ~30 minutes before first pitch.
MIN
- 1.T. LarnachLF
- 2.L. KeaschallCF
- 3.K. Clemens2B
- 4.J. BellDH
- 5.R. Lewis1B
- 6.B. Lee3B
- 7.A. RodenRF
- 8.V. CaratiniC
- 9.T. GraySS
KC
- 1.C. JensenC
- 2.B. Witt Jr.SS
- 3.J. Caglianone1B
- 4.S. PerezDH
- 5.M. Massey2B
- 6.I. CollinsLF
- 7.J. RaveRF
- 8.J. Rojas3B
- 9.K. IsbelCF
Scouting report · pre-game
KC vs MIN.
KC is 5-5 recently; MIN is 5-5.
46.8%
model · KC win prob
Recent form
- KC5–5-0.4
- MIN5–5-0.4
Situational
- KC1d restB2B
- MIN1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. KC has 0 straight road games; MIN has 5.
Model angle
+7.0ppon MIN
MIN's edge is driven by model confidence. Venue split keeps it from reading cleaner. Weather and park add about 0.2 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.2pp
- ▲Model confidence+1.5pp
- ▼Venue split-1.5pp
Players to watch
- Taj BradleyMIN6.6strikeouts · ±2.9
Taj Bradley · 6.6 K · last-10 6.8 vs season 6.4.
- Joe RyanMIN5.7strikeouts · ±2.6
Joe Ryan · 5.7 K · last-10 5.6 vs season 5.8.
- Noah CameronKC5.3strikeouts · ±3.4
Noah Cameron · 5.3 K · last-10 5.3 vs season 5.3.
Head-to-head · 3-2 · last 5
KC is 3-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-07-28KC @ MIN2–3
- 2026-07-29KC @ MIN4–0
- 2026-07-30KC @ MIN3–4
- 2026-08-04MIN @ KC2–8
- 2026-08-05MIN @ KC1–2
Line move
open -118→-126toward KC
The market has moved 1.6pp toward the home side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
47.7%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
48.1%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.3%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
48.3%
P(KC win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.52 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
97% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
KC vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 109 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Taj BradleyMIN6.6± 2.9high
- Joe RyanMIN5.7± 2.6high
- Noah CameronKC5.3± 3.4high
Hits
- Royce LewisMIN1.2± 1.0high
- Ryan JeffersMIN1.1± 0.7high
- Bobby Witt Jr.KC0.9± 1.1high
Total bases
- Royce LewisMIN2.1± 1.6high
- Salvador PerezKC1.8± 1.6high
- Kody ClemensMIN1.7± 2.3high
RBIs
- Luke MaileKC1.0± 1.6low
- Royce LewisMIN0.6± 1.1high
- Jac CaglianoneKC0.5± 0.8high
Earned runs
- Dean KremerMIN3.4± 3.4low
- Connor PrielippMIN3.1± 1.7medium
- Noah CameronKC3.0± 2.6high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
MIN
league avg
KC
.722
OPS
◀
.719
.711
.317
OBP
◀
.318
.313
4.65
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.15
4.63
Team ERA
◀
4.18
4.81
1.38
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.42
8.4
K / 9
◀
8.5
7.6
The One modelTossup
Thu, Aug 6MIN★
Twins
78-65
vs53.2%MIN
KC
Royals
60-75
MIN 53.2%win prob46.8% KC
MIN 1517 · KC 1480Box score→
Team pages
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
