Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BOS at FLA?

The model favors FLA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1FLA

BOS

43-25-8

FLA

37-35-3

NHLThu, Apr 2FinalSeriesFLA wins series 3-0VegasBOS -162

BOS · top performer

David Pastrnak

RW · #88

1Points

—

SOG

FLA · top performer

Sam Bennett

C · #9

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. ArvidssonLW · #71	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	14:37
M. GeekieC · #39	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	18:42
T. JeannotLW · #84	0	0	0	1	5	2	0	12:42
M. KastelicC · #47	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	12:23
M. KhusnutdinovC · #92	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	13:46
S. KuralyC · #52	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	11:09
E. LindholmC · #28	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	19:53
F. MintenC · #93	1	0	0	2	1	3	0	15:16
C. MittelstadtC · #11	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	14:06
D. PastrnakRW · #88	0	1	0	5	0	0	2	24:12
L. ReichelLW · #75	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:03
P. ZachaC · #18	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	17:53

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AspirotD · #45	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	17:19
H. JokiharjuD · #20	0	0	-2	3	1	2	0	15:14
H. LindholmD · #27	0	0	-2	3	1	2	0	18:29
C. McAvoyD · #73	0	0	1	2	1	2	0	27:37
A. PeekeD · #26	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	17:46
N. ZadorovD · #91	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	18:35

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SwaymanG · #1	24	2	22	.917	58:18

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BennettC · #9	1	0	0	7	0	0	0	19:52
J. BoqvistC · #70	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	13:33
N. FooteLW · #25	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	10:56
A.J. GreerLW · #10	0	1	2	1	3	1	2	16:37
N. GregorLW · #18	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:52
V. HinostrozaC · #24	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	11:47
L. KuninC · #71	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	10:47
E. LuostarinenC · #27	0	0	1	2	1	3	0	15:57
T. NosekLW · #92	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:39
M. SamoskevichRW · #11	1	0	1	2	3	1	2	13:56
M. TkachukLW · #19	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	18:17
C. VerhaegheC · #23	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	20:11

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BenningD · #20	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	16:28
T. BjornfotD · #22	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	16:39
G. ForslingD · #42	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	27:13
M. HovorkaD · #96	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	11:08
S. JonesD · #3	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	26:39
D. SebrangoD · #6	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	20:29

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BobrovskyG · #72	29	1	28	.966	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

FLA

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

FLA wins series 3-0

Oct 21

FLA4@

BOS3

Feb 5

BOS4@

FLA5

Apr 2

BOS1@

FLA2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BOS-16262%

FLA+13642%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 71 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

FLA beat BOS 2-1. S. Bennett led the way — 1 G · 7 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
BOS	1	0	0	1
FLA	2	0	0	2

Period scoring

BOS won 0 · FLA won 1

BOS

FLA

Play-by-play · 337 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
BOS 1·FLA 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
BOS 1·FLA 2
3rd·19:43
Morgan Geekie shot blocked by Eetu Luostarinen
·
BOS 1·FLA 2
3rd·19:40
Pavel Zacha faceoff won against Tomas Nosek
·
BOS 1·FLA 2
3rd·19:40
Icing
BOS 1·FLA 2
3rd·19:36
A.J. Greer Snap Shot Wide Left
BOS 1·FLA 2
3rd·19:29
Tomas Nosek faceoff won against Elias Lindholm
· ·
BOS 1·FLA 2
3rd·19:29
Puck Frozen - Goalie
BOS 1·FLA 2
3rd·19:10
Sam Bennett Snap Shot Wide Right
BOS 1·FLA 2
3rd·18:57
Elias Lindholm hit Carter Verhaeghe
· ·
BOS 1·FLA 2
3rd·18:55
Elias Lindholm Tip-In Wide Left
· ·
BOS 1·FLA 2
3rd·18:46
Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Sam Bennett
· ·
BOS 1·FLA 2
3rd·18:46
Goalie Stopped
BOS 1·FLA 2
3rd·18:45
Viktor Arvidsson Wrist Shot saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
·
BOS 1·FLA 2
3rd·18:35
Pavel Zacha Wrist Shot saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
·
BOS 1·FLA 2
3rd·18:33
Morgan Geekie shot blocked by Seth Jones
·
BOS 1·FLA 2
3rd·18:12
Takeaway by Gustav Forsling
BOS 1·FLA 2
3rd·17:57
Eetu Luostarinen faceoff won against Elias Lindholm
· ·
BOS 1·FLA 2
3rd·17:57
Timeout - Visitor
BOS 1·FLA 2
3rd·17:57
Puck in Netting
BOS 1·FLA 2
3rd·17:55
Sam Bennett Snap Shot Off Crossbar
·
BOS 1·FLA 2
3rd·17:27
Jesper Boqvist Snap Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
BOS 1·FLA 2
3rd·17:18
David Pastrnak Wrist Shot saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
·
BOS 1·FLA 2
3rd·17:10
Morgan Geekie Slap Shot Wide Left
·
BOS 1·FLA 2
3rd·16:39
Pavel Zacha faceoff won against Tomas Nosek
·
BOS 1·FLA 2
3rd·16:39
TV Timeout
BOS 1·FLA 2
3rd·16:39
A.J. Greer Tripping against Elias Lindholm
· ·
BOS 1·FLA 2
3rd·15:58
Takeaway by Casey Mittelstadt
BOS 1·FLA 2
3rd·15:54
Giveaway by Casey Mittelstadt
BOS 1·FLA 2
3rd·15:39
Luke Kunin hit Hampus Lindholm
· ·
BOS 1·FLA 2

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 6.5·BOS -162/FLA +136

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

lorida Panthers held off Boston Bruins, 2–1.

FLA +1.5 cashed (BOS lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Sam Bennett · FLA20:060.9757.8%52.3%20:06 TOI · 0.97 iXG · 57.8% CF · 52.3% xGF
Matthew Tkachuk · FLA18:420.7055.3%46.7%18:42 TOI · 0.70 iXG · 55.3% CF · 46.7% xGF
David Pastrnak · BOS24:420.4959.6%62.1%24:42 TOI · 0.49 iXG · 59.6% CF · 62.1% xGF
Morgan Geekie · BOS19:060.4660.0%57.4%19:06 TOI · 0.46 iXG · 60.0% CF · 57.4% xGF
Charlie McAvoy · BOS27:420.4059.0%64.0%27:42 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 59.0% CF · 64.0% xGF
Jesper Boqvist · NJD13:420.3657.7%54.3%13:42 TOI · 0.36 iXG · 57.7% CF · 54.3% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Sergei Bobrovsky · FLA28–1.966+2.0928–1 · .966 SV% · +2.09 GSAx
Jeremy Swayman · BOS22–2.917+1.3922–2 · .917 SV% · +1.39 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · FLA favored

Elo Static
50.6%
P(FLA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.6%
P(FLA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.6%
P(FLA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+136

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BOS at FLA?: The model favors FLA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Boston BruinsFlorida Panthers

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